Queensland 2024

Sportsbet have released odds for 11 electorates, of which three are safe seats and the remaining eight are the eight most marginal seats held by Labor.

They have the LNP as heavy favourites to gain Bundaberg ($1.08), Barron River ($1.12), Nicklin ($1.14), Hervey Bay ($1.17), Townsville ($1.17) and Redlands ($1.20). The LNP are also favoured, but slightly less heavily, to gain Thuringowa ($1.32) and and Caloundra ($1.36).

You would have to think all eight are probably gone at this election plus a few more.

@wilson the only seat they will hold outside of Brisbane will be Gladstone

@Wilson
Seems like betting on the LNP winning Caloundra will be easy money, given an LNP Government is on 1.08 odds, and I just can’t see LNP winning govt without Caloundra.
Sportsbet should really start hiring actual psephologists before the general population starts abusing how easy it is to make money through betting on elections!

i thinkany seat under 10% is vunerable. i also think Miles could be in trouble in Murrumba after a personal backlash

@Wilson interesting. Basically we can already write off Bundaberg even if Labor do something miraculous and win in a historic extremely major upset.

@NP good one

@John I didn’t say I think Labor will win. They’ll lose, we know this. I said IF they somehow manage to win they still will lose Bundaberg. They didn’t hold it in 2017, so they sure as hell won’t hold it now. They almost won Townsville in 2017 too on the back of One Nation preferences, but now the LNP will win that too and finish first.

@NP labor wont hold any seats other then gladstone outside brisbane

Does Plutonium Pete’s nuclear brainfart provide a lifeline to Qld Labor? Or does the state LNP coming out against it as well negate any benefit to the government?

@Ursula seeing that both state & fed opposition leaders are head butting at the moment may not get the Landslide victory predicted if it continues up until election day and may end up getting a slim majority or even a minority.

Interestingly Sportsbet’s odds for an LNP victory has risen in the last few days from 1.08 to a whopping (/s) 1.20. (Though sometimes Sportsbet is not the most logical in setting election betting odds)

@Leon, the price would be set by the inflow of money on each condition. My guess is there was an increase in punters banking on the very generous budget shifting poll numbers. It also would have been pretty hard finding anyone to punt at 1.08. Lock your money away until October for only 8% returns?? You might as well put it on the Nvidia (not financial advice) 😀

Now that it sits at 1.20, might be some more volume on the betting line I imagine.

Alternative history: what if the LNP retained government in 2015 by retaining Bundaberg and Ferny Grove (let’s add Barron River into the mix too so they have an urban seat in North Queensland)? Would they have won in 2017? Would they have gained back ground in Townsville and Cairns?

Surprisingly (excluding redistributions) the only three seats Labor has lost to any party in 2015, 2017 or 2020 were Bundaberg (LNP, 2017), Mirani (One Nation, 2017) and South Brisbane (Greens, 2020). Compare this to the NSW Coalition who despite holding government in 2015 and 2019 lost like 15 seats to Labor alone.

NP, Labor won by the slimmest margins in QLD whereas the NSW coalition could afford a big swing and still retain office in 2015.

Nuclear power won’t hurt the LNP much in QLD considering most of the seats they need to win are in areas Nuclear power is more popular (Townsville, Central Coastal QLD, Cairns, Far North QLD, Fraser Coast, etc) However the federal coalition on the other hand might have hurt other state parties like the Victorian and South Australian Liberals.

Nuclear Power would be unpopular in inner Brisbane and Perth. but most of the seats the conservative parties need to win are 15km or further from the CBD areas.

@Daniel T you are indeed correct that the NSW Coalition held onto a good majority by retaining key Western Sydney seats that before 2011 were held by Labor for decades. But my question was what if the LNP won the 2015 state election? Would they have won in 2017? What about 2020? Would 2024 have looked different?

Might have lost in 2018 (Premier would have been Tim Nicholls because Newman still would have lost his seat)

Nicholls (I doubt it would have been premier Springborg and even if it was I actually think he would’ve been challenged as leader by Nicholls which actually happened in opposition which would have de-railed the LNP and would’ve reminded voters of the Canberra leadership spills)

Nicholls would have gone in 2018, Likely before the SA election so likely Jan or Feb as going during the holidays is better than holding 2 state elections at once. I suspect he would’ve lost and it would’ve been a minority Labor or small majority Labor government. Turnbull would’ve hurt the LNP in QLD like he did marginally in real life.

Abbott still might have been ousted and even if he had not, would have lost in 2016 but not in a landslide (but still a 1-term pm). A PM Shorten would’ve almost guaranteed the LNP a 3rd term but I suspect a PM Shorten would’ve struggled for a 2nd term in 2019 but would have narrowly won either a hung parliament or small majority. The LNP likely still under Nicholls would have won a 4th term under COVID in 2021 (or a snap election in 2020)

If Nicholls quit before the 2021/2020 election then he would have possibly have been replaced by Deb Frecklington or JPL, however a PM Shorten might have narrowly gotten them a 4th term, but if not (PM Morrison would have had a strong chance of occurring in 2019 if Bill Shorten had won 2016) Then the LNP lose 2020-2021 with the Coalition in power federally.

2024 would see a return for Labor but not under Annastacia. She would’ve quit after 2018 as she did say previously she was planning on staying on after 2015 regardless of the result.

Labor probably would have controlled BCC at some point if the LNP had won 2015, who knows, Maybe a new popular Labor lord mayor would have been the next Labor premier, otherwise, Kate Jones in 2024.

If the LNP won in 2015 they would have lost pretty badly in 2017. And then Labor can use covid to win pretty easily in 2020.

The big reason NSW Libs got swings against them compared to QLD Labor is
– Much higher starting point, where down was only real way to go
– Federal drag affected them, this hurt NSW Libs, and helped QLD Labor. LNP won in 2009 and probably will in 2024, where Labor is in charge federally.

Regarding betting odds, politics isn’t the bookmakers’ bread and butter though the best odds quite often win as politics tends to be a two-horse race, unlike say, everyday horse races. They do point to a likely LNP victory. I see an LNP victory but there’s a chance of the polls tightening a bit before election day.

Nuclear energy is more popular amongst older voters, the working-class and in provincial and rural areas. The nuclear debate may be a positive in regional centres e.g. Keppel, Mackay. The nuclear debate has actually exposed Crisafulli’s ambiguity and inability to have a defined position. State Labor could use this and the nuclear debate as leverage especially in SEQ.

@Votante and in effect play the same cards the Liberals played on Shorten and Adani in 2019 which worked for them a treat. Of course on this occasion it won’t be sweet at all for Labor as they’re 101% headed for defeat but if Cristafulli is going to be wishy-washy on the topic of nuclear he might not get all the seats he wants and Labor might not die an election death 2012-style compared to right now.

Nuclear has probably polarised the vote in QLD. People tend to have an opinion, either it secures long-term jobs and contracts, or it’s an extremely expensive baseload compared to solar+battery

@Mt the only people who say its expensive compared to solar + battery are people who have a vested interest in solar + battery

Nuclear policy of the lnp is like someone promising to sell a shonky used car 10 years in the future pointless and useless

@micheal so people in every other advanced economny like shonky used cars?

@john Out of all the Nuclear fables Dutton tries to spin, the every other Top 20 economies have plants generating nuclear power is the one that annoys me most.
Both Italy and Germany have shut down all their Nuclear Power Plants. Plus other Higher end economies like Poland, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Indonesia don’t have nuclear power plants.
There was no need to make that claim and I’m so surprised no journo bothered to do some basic research and pull him up on it.

@witness because they dont have access to the technology to build them.

@Witness Saudi Arabia like China produces so many emissions yet they do nothing about it. China is the reason why emissions are so damn high, so if the world goes underwater in a few generations we know who to blame.

Saudi Arabia, like other Gulf countries, has a massive oil industry. Saudi Aramco (Saudi Arabia’s state-owned oil and gas company) is the second wealthiest company in the world after Walmart.

As for the others:

* Poland is introducing nuclear power, with a plant set to begin construction in 2026 to be completed some time between 2033 and 2036. The plant is planned to be built in the village of Choczewo in the Pomeranian Voivodeship of northern Poland.
* Turkey is very close to having a nuclear power plant, with the Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant set to be completed in October 2024. It is expected to generate 10% of Turkey’s electricity when completed and will be located in the town of Büyükeceli in Mersin Province, which is in southern Turkey.

Furthermore, Germany and Italy made a massive mistake in shutting down their nuclear power plants. Germany even wanted to restart old coal plants in addition to renewables because somehow that’s gonna cut emissions. Look what happened to those countries: they faced an energy crisis.

For the record:

* Countries with operating nuclear reactors: Argentina, Armenia, Belarus, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, China, Czech Republic, Finland, France, Hungary, India, Iran, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands, Pakistan, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Ukraine, United Arab Emirates, United Kingdom, United States
* Countries with reactors being built: Bangladesh, Egypt, Turkey
* Countries planning to (re)introduce nuclear power in the near future: Iraq, Kazakhstan, Philippines, Poland

The Coalition supports nuclear power, as does One Nation, but Labor and the Greens oppose it. Some may point to the failure of state governments and oppositions to endorse it, but in reality it’s to avoid any dramas because of course there won’t be nuclear power unless either the Coalition wins the next election or Labor backflips and agrees to it.

Tasmania is completely out of the discussion since it has no coal plants and it would never have had any nuclear power.

@Witness And look at how well Germany is doing. They’re having to import nuclear power from France.
Though Australia is probably better placed than any other country to go 100% renewable.

@ Scart
I agree Germany phasing out Nuclear power was a folly in hindsight. They should have focused on a Coal phase like the UK is almost completed first. Germany is now expected to hold on to Coal for longer than other G7 Countries.

Haha the outhoing chair of the climate commission has embreaced and endorsed nuclear power

@scart exactly.

@nimalna and the kicker they have no coal they import it

@Scart I think it’s much easier for a Pacific Island or even New Zealand to go 100% renewable than Australia since Australia is huge with a lot of natural resources.

The point I was making was more about Duttons fib of all Top economies running nuclear power, not the benefits or costs of such.

@Nether Portal NZ has a blanket ban on all things nuclear anyway, and they have geothermal energy because they have volcanoes and we don’t.

@Scart correct. Well, technically we have active volcanoes on the Heard and MacDonald Islands but they’re 4,000km southwest of Perth, and we have two dormant volcanoes that last erupted around 5,000 years ago (Mount Gambier and Mount Schank, both of which are in South Australia).

Transphobia disguised as policy’: Division over LNP’s gender agenda
A resolution to ban puberty blockers for minors with gender dysphoria has been decried by a Young LNP member at the party’s state convention.
https://www.cairnspost.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=CPWEB_WRE170_a_GGL&dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cairnspost.com.au%2Fnews%2Fqueensland%2Flnp-convention-day-1-lawrence-springborg-eyes-likely-election-win%2Fnews-story%2Ff1909f7cdfa3fc316b22078978ee0023&memtype=anonymous&mode=premium

I wonder if a state LNP victory would improve Federal Labor’s hopes in QLD. QLD votes differently for both levels. One could vote for LNP to counter Labor in the other parliament and vice versa.

id say it would because thats why albo is holding off the federal election he wants to go early but cant because people in qld are waiting with their baseball bats for the first labor govt to walk past. Albo doesnt want to walk past first. i predicr lnp gains in blair and possibly ryan and/or brisbane. lilley is another liberal hopeful target from what im hearing

Lilley will be like Greenaway – the LNP had a chance when it was most marginal, but put forward a gaffe-prone canidate (Vivian Lobo / Jaymes Diaz) which cemented both seats as safe Labor. I don’t see Lilley flipping until Anika Wells retires.

@ john There’s been basically zero indication of any desire or reason for an early election aside from speculation here on the Tally Room and other similar sites. I really don’t think Albanese is playing 4D chess by simply adhering to the parliamentary term’s length, which happens to fall shortly after the most recent Queensland state election.

Yea agree, the only speculation of an early election is coming from right-wing media and this website.

It would be dumb to call an election. Here’s many reasons why:

1. It would require a mini-redistribution that would be very unhelpful and locals in NSW in particular would highly object to it.
2. Voters in QLD and the NT are waiting to knock Labor out with baseball bats.
3. Fatima Payman just quit Labor. This will affect Muslim and Jewish votes.
4. Labor’s struggling in the polls.
5. Albo isn’t ready yet.

And so on.

By the way, I say that as someone who is centre-right.

I think Albo might call an early election, but it will only be a slightly early election. Maybe January/February 2025.

NP, I believe you made a mistake with NT, I will say this again, There was reports that Labor is ahead in a new poll in NT making the election too close to call and a minority Labor government is on the cards in the NT.

https://www.ntnews.com.au/news/northern-territory/august-election-polling-data-shows-labor-taking-a-narrow-lead/news-story/17a8390defd412d0562307441fd91d6f

Election is too close to call, could go either way. But you are dead right about Queensland.

@Daniel T That polling was just for Darwin and Palmerston. It would indicate a TPP swing of around 6% according to the NT section.

@Scart yeah that might happen.

Also yeah the poll was only Darwin and Palmerston and I think the polling sample was small. Alice Springs and Katherine will swing like 15% to the CLP since Gunner’s gone.

Betting odds have the CLP on for

@SCart he wont go in january or february because thats peoples holiday times. my bet is late novemeber early december he will announce an election sometime after the qld election is over.

@nether portal
1. he might think thats an advantage, but i think he will call it after the qld election anyway
2. he will until after
3. so?
4. yea and its only gonna get worse by may
5. or so he wants you to believe.

with an expected 2 interest rate rises at least coming he wont wait until may incase of more and the pain to get worse. he will go late this year in my opinion and thats where im putting my money literally and figuritivly.

The bookies are paying $7 for an election in 2024.

@np good