LNP 1.6%
Incumbent MP
Tim Nicholls, since 2006.
Geography
Brisbane. Clayfield covers inner suburbs of the City of Brisbane on the northern side of the Brisbane River, specifically Albion, Hamilton, Ascot, Clayfield, Wooloowin, Hendra, Windsor, Gordon Park and Pinkenba. The seat also covers Brisbane Airport and ports and industrial areas. The eastern half of the seat has practically no residential population.
History
The seat of Clayfield was first created in 1950, was abolished in 1977, and was restored in 1992. Apart from two terms from 2001 to 2006, the seat has always been held by the Liberal Party.
The seat was won in 1992 by Santo Santoro. He had first been elected in 1989, winning the seat of Merthyr off Liberal-turned-National Don Lane. Merthyr was abolished in 1992, and Santoro was elected in the restored seat of Clayfield.
Santoro served as deputy leader of the Liberal Party from 1992 to 1995, and served as Minister for Training and Industrial Relations from 1996 to 1998.
In 2001, Santoro lost Clayfield in a shock result to the ALP’s Liddy Clark.
Santoro was appointed to a vacancy in the Senate in 2002. He served as Minister for Ageing from 2006 to 2007, but in March 2007 resigned from the ministry and the Senate after he was caught up in a share scandal.
Clark is a former actor in Australian television shows. She was re-elected as Member for Clayfield and briefly served as a minister in the Beattie government before resigning over a scandal involving the bringing of alcohol into a dry indigenous community in North Queensland.
In 2006, Clark was defeated by Brisbane city councillor Tim Nicholls. Nicholls was soon challenging Liberal leader Bruce Flegg for the leadership of the small party, and through 2007 the party was deadlocked due to a 4-4 tie between Flegg’s supporters and Nicholls’ supporters. The issue was resolved with the election of Mark McArdle as Liberal leader.
Nicholls has been re-elected in Clayfield in 2009, 2012 and 2015. Nicholls took on the Treasury portfolio after the merger of the Liberal and National parties in 2008, serving as Treasurer after the party won power in 2012.
Nicholls was elected leader of the Liberal National Party in 2016, and led the party into the 2017 election, which they lost. He stood down as leader shortly after that election.
- Jaimyn Mayer (Greens)
- Nick Buick (Libertarian)
- Belle Brookfield (Labor)
- Tim Nicholls (Liberal National)
- Michelle Wilde (One Nation)
Assessment
Clayfield is a marginal LNP seat, but has been won by the LNP or Liberal Party at all but two elections since the seat was restored in 1992.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Tim Nicholls | Liberal National | 15,979 | 45.9 | -1.9 |
| Philip Anthony | Labor | 11,157 | 32.0 | -0.8 |
| Andrew Bartlett | Greens | 6,132 | 17.6 | -1.7 |
| Abby Douglas | One Nation | 817 | 2.3 | +2.4 |
| Robert King | Independent | 478 | 1.4 | +1.4 |
| Kathy Moloney | Civil Liberties & Motorists | 254 | 0.7 | +0.7 |
| Informal | 719 | 2.0 |
2020 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Tim Nicholls | Liberal National | 17,949 | 51.6 | -0.9 |
| Philip Anthony | Labor | 16,868 | 48.4 | +0.9 |
Booths in Clayfield have been divided into three areas: central, east and west.
The LNP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in the centre (55.2%) and east (57%), while Labor polled 63% in the west. The LNP also polled 53% on the pre-poll vote.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 13.6% in the east to 26.7% in the west.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | LNP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Central | 15.9 | 55.2 | 3,940 | 11.3 |
| West | 26.7 | 37.0 | 3,936 | 11.3 |
| East | 13.6 | 57.0 | 2,677 | 7.7 |
| Pre-poll | 16.0 | 53.0 | 12,443 | 35.7 |
| Other votes | 17.8 | 52.4 | 11,821 | 34.0 |
Election results in Clayfield at the 2020 Queensland state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal National Party, Labor and the Greens.
The BCC Liberals still do well here and on federal figures this is still an LNP seat. I don’t see why it would flip anytime soon unless the LNP becomes more hard right (e.g if they ban abortion or scrap climate targets). On federal figures Moggill is actually worse for the LNP against the Greens (though federally Labor still outpolls the Greens in Clayfield).
Julian Simmonds (the previous member for Ryan) was of the centre-right/Morrison faction while Trevor Evans was a moderate. Evans should run for a state seat or run again federally, he was a good MP. Simmonds should replace Dr. Christian Rowan when he retires in Moggill.
@NP – You mean the person that knifed a popular MP and assistant minister Jane Prentice in the back, saw the LNP margin drop at a high tide election, then lost when the seat was easily holdable?
Honestly if she still has interest, Jane Prentice would be a great MP for Moggill, or even Maggie Forrest if she loses in Ryan in 2025.
@James he wasn’t necessarily a bad MP though.
As for whether Prentice will run again, she’s 71 so as good of an MP she would be I doubt she’d run. Maggie Forest on the other hand would run and be a good fit. She lives in Chapel Hill, however, and the redistribution could potentially move that suburb into Maiwar, which is where the neighbouring suburbs of Indooroopilly and Fig Tree Pocket and Mount Coot-tha are (though the redistribution might expand Moggill to take in Fig Tree Pocket, I’m not sure of the numbers there).
@ NP/James
I agree that a seat like Ryan should be represented by a moderate it is more Tealish demographically. I think part of the reason that Ryan and Brisbane saw a swing to the Labor party in 2019 was the dumping of Turnbull like in the other now Tealish seats.
This could be LNP vs GRN in the future, but I think Belle Brookfield has been campaigning well and will hold the Labor primary. I think the western part of this electorate will be friendly towards Steven Miles and Labor. Plus the Labor candidate being a young renter helps as well. I expect a small swing against Labor overall.
The eastern part of this electorate is very LNP-voting while the western part is more competitive and small-l-liberal.
Hamilton, Ascot, Clayfield and Hendra usually liberal but the rest quite labor leaning usually. I see LNP holding here with a small swing to them but the inner city Brisbane in general is definitely shifting more left (greens/labor).
Whenever the LNP next lose government by any decent margin, this seat goes.