LNP 1.6%
Incumbent MP
Tim Nicholls, since 2006.
Geography
Brisbane. Clayfield covers inner suburbs of the City of Brisbane on the northern side of the Brisbane River, specifically Albion, Hamilton, Ascot, Clayfield, Wooloowin, Hendra, Windsor, Gordon Park and Pinkenba. The seat also covers Brisbane Airport and ports and industrial areas. The eastern half of the seat has practically no residential population.
History
The seat of Clayfield was first created in 1950, was abolished in 1977, and was restored in 1992. Apart from two terms from 2001 to 2006, the seat has always been held by the Liberal Party.
The seat was won in 1992 by Santo Santoro. He had first been elected in 1989, winning the seat of Merthyr off Liberal-turned-National Don Lane. Merthyr was abolished in 1992, and Santoro was elected in the restored seat of Clayfield.
Santoro served as deputy leader of the Liberal Party from 1992 to 1995, and served as Minister for Training and Industrial Relations from 1996 to 1998.
In 2001, Santoro lost Clayfield in a shock result to the ALP’s Liddy Clark.
Santoro was appointed to a vacancy in the Senate in 2002. He served as Minister for Ageing from 2006 to 2007, but in March 2007 resigned from the ministry and the Senate after he was caught up in a share scandal.
Clark is a former actor in Australian television shows. She was re-elected as Member for Clayfield and briefly served as a minister in the Beattie government before resigning over a scandal involving the bringing of alcohol into a dry indigenous community in North Queensland.
In 2006, Clark was defeated by Brisbane city councillor Tim Nicholls. Nicholls was soon challenging Liberal leader Bruce Flegg for the leadership of the small party, and through 2007 the party was deadlocked due to a 4-4 tie between Flegg’s supporters and Nicholls’ supporters. The issue was resolved with the election of Mark McArdle as Liberal leader.
Nicholls has been re-elected in Clayfield in 2009, 2012 and 2015. Nicholls took on the Treasury portfolio after the merger of the Liberal and National parties in 2008, serving as Treasurer after the party won power in 2012.
Nicholls was elected leader of the Liberal National Party in 2016, and led the party into the 2017 election, which they lost. He stood down as leader shortly after that election.
- Jaimyn Mayer (Greens)
- Nick Buick (Libertarian)
- Belle Brookfield (Labor)
- Tim Nicholls (Liberal National)
- Michelle Wilde (One Nation)
Assessment
Clayfield is a marginal LNP seat, but has been won by the LNP or Liberal Party at all but two elections since the seat was restored in 1992.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Tim Nicholls | Liberal National | 15,979 | 45.9 | -1.9 |
| Philip Anthony | Labor | 11,157 | 32.0 | -0.8 |
| Andrew Bartlett | Greens | 6,132 | 17.6 | -1.7 |
| Abby Douglas | One Nation | 817 | 2.3 | +2.4 |
| Robert King | Independent | 478 | 1.4 | +1.4 |
| Kathy Moloney | Civil Liberties & Motorists | 254 | 0.7 | +0.7 |
| Informal | 719 | 2.0 |
2020 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Tim Nicholls | Liberal National | 17,949 | 51.6 | -0.9 |
| Philip Anthony | Labor | 16,868 | 48.4 | +0.9 |
Booths in Clayfield have been divided into three areas: central, east and west.
The LNP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in the centre (55.2%) and east (57%), while Labor polled 63% in the west. The LNP also polled 53% on the pre-poll vote.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 13.6% in the east to 26.7% in the west.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | LNP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Central | 15.9 | 55.2 | 3,940 | 11.3 |
| West | 26.7 | 37.0 | 3,936 | 11.3 |
| East | 13.6 | 57.0 | 2,677 | 7.7 |
| Pre-poll | 16.0 | 53.0 | 12,443 | 35.7 |
| Other votes | 17.8 | 52.4 | 11,821 | 34.0 |
Election results in Clayfield at the 2020 Queensland state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal National Party, Labor and the Greens.
The BCC Liberals still do well here and on federal figures this is still an LNP seat. I don’t see why it would flip anytime soon unless the LNP becomes more hard right (e.g if they ban abortion or scrap climate targets). On federal figures Moggill is actually worse for the LNP against the Greens (though federally Labor still outpolls the Greens in Clayfield).
Julian Simmonds (the previous member for Ryan) was of the centre-right/Morrison faction while Trevor Evans was a moderate. Evans should run for a state seat or run again federally, he was a good MP. Simmonds should replace Dr. Christian Rowan when he retires in Moggill.
@NP – You mean the person that knifed a popular MP and assistant minister Jane Prentice in the back, saw the LNP margin drop at a high tide election, then lost when the seat was easily holdable?
Honestly if she still has interest, Jane Prentice would be a great MP for Moggill, or even Maggie Forrest if she loses in Ryan in 2025.
@James he wasn’t necessarily a bad MP though.
As for whether Prentice will run again, she’s 71 so as good of an MP she would be I doubt she’d run. Maggie Forest on the other hand would run and be a good fit. She lives in Chapel Hill, however, and the redistribution could potentially move that suburb into Maiwar, which is where the neighbouring suburbs of Indooroopilly and Fig Tree Pocket and Mount Coot-tha are (though the redistribution might expand Moggill to take in Fig Tree Pocket, I’m not sure of the numbers there).
@ NP/James
I agree that a seat like Ryan should be represented by a moderate it is more Tealish demographically. I think part of the reason that Ryan and Brisbane saw a swing to the Labor party in 2019 was the dumping of Turnbull like in the other now Tealish seats.
You couldn’t get ay more moderate than Julian Simmonds.
LNP lost Ryan and Brisbane due to a backlash from women voters over the Brittany Higgins scandal.
Every Liberal that lost his/her seat to a Teal/Green was a moderate, Enans, Zimmerman and Tim Wilson even identified as Gay, it didn’t help them though.
This could be LNP vs GRN in the future, but I think Belle Brookfield has been campaigning well and will hold the Labor primary. I think the western part of this electorate will be friendly towards Steven Miles and Labor. Plus the Labor candidate being a young renter helps as well. I expect a small swing against Labor overall.
The eastern part of this electorate is very LNP-voting while the western part is more competitive and small-l-liberal.
Hamilton, Ascot, Clayfield and Hendra usually liberal but the rest quite labor leaning usually. I see LNP holding here with a small swing to them but the inner city Brisbane in general is definitely shifting more left (greens/labor).
Whenever the LNP next lose government by any decent margin, this seat goes.
Think this should be a safe lnp seat but certainly is not
Margin 1.5%
This seat and Everton will stick with the LNP until Nicholls and Mander retire.
@AA agree Tim Nicholls is a popular local MP and a key moderate.
I think the swing to LNP will be quite small, at most 4%. The anti-Labor swings in inner Brisbane will be quite muted, relatively speaking. There’s also the demographic shifts that I mentioned previously.
If the redistribution removes everywhere west of Wooloowin (but keeps Albion) then this would be a safe LNP seat and would always be an LNP seat. Albion, Ascot, Brisbane Airport, Clayfield, Eagle Farm, Hamilton, Hendra and Pinkenba are all solidly conservative suburbs.
There is a simple solution for the redistribution here to make this and the other northern inner-city seats at quota:
* Move Wooloowin out of Clayfield into Stafford. This is by far the simplest and most effective solution to this issue. New margin would be around 60% LNP in 2020.
* Move Grange into Ferny Grove.
* Expand Cooper to entirely take on the northern part of McConnel that currently borders Clayfield and Stafford. I’m doing this to keep the Brisbane CBD itself in McConnel.
* Enoggera Reservoir is moved into Moggill and Cooper becomes an entirely inner-city seat.
* Moggill takes Fig Tree Pocket, Mount Coot-tha and parts of Indooroopilly from Maiwar while Maiwar takes Milton from Cooper to border McConnel.
Overall it unfortunately looks like the inner-city redistribution will benefit the Greens except in Clayfield where it will benefit the LNP. Moggill will be difficult to fully determine because it could be forced to partially retreat from Brisbane and go as far west as Esk to be at quota.
Lnp retain
LNP retain with an increased margin, Labor seems to have forgotten that Nicholls voted to support legalising abortion.
Crisafulli’s new cabinet has been released and Tim Nicholls has been given the Health portfolio. This could be a blessing or a curse, depending on how the government addresses the concerns around health including ambulance ramping. The elevated profile could help Nicholls keep his seat in 2028, but not if he is the target of many negative headlines.
Elsewhere David Janetzki is Treasurer, Ros Bates has been moved to Finance, Deb Frecklington is Attorney General, John Paul Langbroek has Education, Dan Purdie has Police, Sam O’Connor has Environment and Brent Mickelberg has been elevated to cabinet to cover Transport and Main Roads.
@Wilson I think O’Connor had Environment pre-election. He has housing and public works and youth minister now instead according to the ABC. Interesting that none of the newly elected MPs got anything, even Kempton who has previous experience both in parliament and as a minister.
Laine, generally Cabinet Ministers will need to have some prior experience in Parliament so newly elected MP’s are rarely promoted into Cabinet straightaway. The only exceptions will be when there is a shortage of talent due to a small legislature size (NT comes to mind with some newly elected MP’s elevated straight into Cabinet, two CLP members in the current government and also some Labor members after the 2016 landslide win, Dale Wakefield and Eva Lawler).
Christian Rowan, who held the Education and Arts portfolios, has lost them and will now be the Leader of the House. John-Paul Langbroek will now be Education and Arts Minister.
Some of the experienced newcomers (Amanda Stoker, Amanda Cooper, David Kempton and some others) are likely to get Assistant Minister roles which will provide a springboard for them to be promoted to Ministers in the future.
Will Sam O’Connor take on Climate change as well or is that a separate portfolio?
Langbroek and Nicholls are good appointments, both former LNP Leaders, those sectors are completely unionised, require smooth operators.
Sorry I made a mistake, O’Connor was moved from environment to housing. Andrew Powell has environment.