ALP 9.8%
Incumbent MP
Don Brown, since 2015.
Geography
South-East Queensland. Capalaba covers eastern parts of Greater Brisbane in Redland local council area, specifically the suburbs of Capalaba, Alexandra Hills and parts of Birkdale and Thorneside.
History
The seat of Capalaba was created in 1992. Labor held the seat continuously from 1992 to 2012.
The seat was first won by Jim Elder, who had won the seat of Manly in 1989 and moved to Capalaba after his original seat was abolished.
Elder joined the Goss ministry in 1992 and served in it until the government was defeated in 1996. He became Deputy Opposition Leader in 1996 and became Deputy Premier in the Beattie government in 1998.
Elder resigned from the ministry and from the ALP in 2000 after adverse findings against him from the Shepherdson Inquiry into branch-stacking. He served out the remainder of his term as an independent until retiring in 2001.
At the 2001 election, the ALP’s Michael Choi was elected in Capalaba. He was re-elected in 2004, 2006 and 2009.
In 2012, Choi was defeated by LNP candidate Steve Davies. Davies held the seat for one term, losing in 2015 to Labor’s Don Brown.
Brown was re-elected in 2017 and 2020.
- Donna Weston (Greens)
- David Schmid (One Nation)
- Don Brown (Labor)
- Russell Field (Liberal National)
Assessment
Capalaba is a reasonably safe Labor seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Don Brown | Labor | 15,160 | 48.2 | +5.4 |
| Bev Walters | Liberal National | 9,719 | 30.9 | +5.6 |
| Michael Metzen | Greens | 2,500 | 7.9 | -0.5 |
| Paul Branagan | Independent | 1,655 | 5.3 | +5.3 |
| Neal Gilmore | One Nation | 1,631 | 5.2 | -14.3 |
| Marilyn Winters | Informed Medical Options | 530 | 1.7 | +1.7 |
| Peter Ronald Callil | Civil Liberties & Motorists | 252 | 0.8 | +0.8 |
| Informal | 1,246 | 3.8 |
2020 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Don Brown | Labor | 18,807 | 59.8 | +2.0 |
| Bev Walters | Liberal National | 12,640 | 40.2 | -2.0 |
Booths in Capalaba have been divided into three areas: north, south-east and south-west.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 59.1% in the north to 61.8% in the south-west.
| Voter group | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South-East | 61.3 | 3,794 | 12.1 |
| North | 59.1 | 2,814 | 8.9 |
| South-West | 61.8 | 2,403 | 7.6 |
| Pre-poll | 58.5 | 13,670 | 43.5 |
| Other votes | 60.8 | 8,766 | 27.9 |
Election results in Capalaba at the 2020 Queensland state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor and the Liberal National Party.
I have this seat as too close to call. I think Don Brown has had a bumpy ride this term, making a number of questionable calls and seems to pick fights with everyone and anyone who’s not a rusted on Labor supporter. It’s only a seat the LNP wins when everything is going right for them, but on just under 10%, it’s not out of the question they pull off a surprise win.
One to watch!
I think this is an LNP gain. With the media’s continual attacks on Don Brown, as well as the crime in the electorate (including the fatal crash in Alex Hills).
I’d say a tossup, but it could be the safest Labor seat to flip. Don Brown has been in hot water this term. No LNP candidate yet.
Anti-youth crime advocate Russell Field has nominated for LNP preselection, but still has to go through the process. It’ll be a fascinating contest with him running against Don, who has been controversial to say the least. Don regularly puts his foot in his mouth. I for one will be happy if Don loses this seat.
It will be interesting to see. Labor is not doing any things in the Redlands. They constantly backflip on election promises and we don’t see much of the budget compared to other electorates. I won’t lose any sleep if Don Brown goes. As a victim if crime 4 years on I’m still waiting ob SPER to collect restitution for damages caused by a drunk, high on drugs teenagers. Does this sound familiar or not? Best of luck Mr. Fields you’ve got my vote. After over 300 email to Don Brown and the Minister of the Treasury got no help just the standard reply.
High profile victim of crime Russell Field has been announced as the LNP candidate today. This seat is gone to the LNP.
This will go to the LNP. The margin isn’t big enough to withstand the swing.
Agreed that Capalaba will probably flip to the LNP. Not only is it just within the 10% swing range, but it is in the outer-suburbs. I anticipate that the outer suburban fringes throughout South East Queensland will face the largest of swings in the state. I don’t really anticipate that the state-wide swing will be as high as 10% at this point. But I do think that swings of just over 10% are possible in divisions like Capalaba, Macalister, Logan, Kurwongbah, Bancroft, etc.
The problem for Brown in Capalaba is that, while the seat should be considered a midrange Labor seat Brown has gone out of his way to make it marginal. He is remarkably disliked in his own electorate. https://www.9news.com.au/national/youth-crime-queensland-capalaba-mp-don-brown-social-media-post-backlash/2e1555bf-dc50-428a-819f-aaf874a6ccb8
Trying to build a reputation as a factional headkicker only works if your colleagues don’t consider you a clown.
Don Brown more like Don Clown will lose his seat.
Between the Don Brown stuff and the issues around Redlands Hospital, I think this is nearly a lock to fall even if other seats on similar margins do not. The feel on the ground is the electorate holds a poor view of the government and the local member is a detriment to the vote (rather than someone who can defy the swing).
LNP gain
This seat could have the largest swing in Brisbane, and with the recent tightening in the polls, it potentially could be the safest Labor seat to fall (though I think Mulgrave will beat it).
Don Brown has officially conceded defeat here and the ABC has promptly placed Capalaba back into the LNP gain category after previously taking it out for a few days pending further vote counting. He was probably the most unlikable Labor MP at risk of losing and I don’t think many people are sad to see the back of him.
As for Russell Field, I would be surprised if he’s more than a one-term MP, as he appears to be quite old and his run for parliament was primarily motivated by the tragic incident involving his family, and changes to criminal law will be well and truly in place by 2028. Whether or not the LNP can hold the seat at that election is another story, but four years is a long time and I’m not making any premature guesses.
Laine – whilst Russell Field might be quite old, I can see him being like Dr Mike Freelander as federal MP for Macarthur (he is currently 71 years old) who was first elected in 2016 at over 60 years of age. Whilst he did have a health scare on one occasion whilst Parliament was in session, he still ran for two more terms and hasn’t yet signalled his intention to retire at the next election.
@ Yoh An
I think Mike Freelander despite his age is quite popular as he is well known locally being formally a Doctor at Campbelltown Hospital. He is not really a career politician but probably an elder statesman in the Community.