ALP 5.6%
Incumbent MP
Michael Healy, since 2017.
Geography
Far North Queensland. The seat of Cairns covers the Cairns CBD and the neighbouring suburbs of Bungalow, Westcourt, Manoora, Kanimbla, Edge Hill, Mooroobool, Earlville, Brinsmead, Whitfield and Aeroglen.
History
Cairns has been a Labor seat for most of the last century, barring one term when it was held by the LNP, and two periods when it was held by an independent Labor MP.
The seat was held by Bill McCormack from 1912 to 1930. He served as Premier of Queensland from 1925 to 1929.
The seat was won in 1998 by Desley Boyle. Boyle served five terms in Parliament, and served as a minister in the Beattie and Bligh governments from 2004 to 2011.
Desley Boyle retired at the 2012 election. LNP candidate Gavin King won the seat off the ALP with a 13% swing.
King held his seat for one term, losing to Labor candidate Rob Pyne in 2015.
Pyne quickly fell out with his Labor colleagues, openly criticising numerous government decisions. Pyne resigned from the Labor Party in March 2016, and served out the remainder of his term as an independent.
Labor’s Michael Healy won Cairns in 2017, and was re-elected in 2020.
- Geena Court (One Nation)
- Josh Holt (Greens)
- Michael Healy (Labor)
- Yolonde Entsch (Liberal National)
- Shane Cuthbert (Independent)
Assessment
Cairns is a marginal Labor seat, but has only been won by the LNP at the landslide victory of 2012.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Michael Healy | Labor | 12,727 | 44.2 | +13.8 |
| Sam Marino | Liberal National | 10,505 | 36.5 | +8.8 |
| Daniel Dench | Greens | 2,829 | 9.8 | +1.8 |
| Darrin Griffith | One Nation | 1,707 | 5.9 | -8.7 |
| Sarah Baxter | Informed Medical Options | 724 | 2.5 | +2.5 |
| David Wright | United Australia | 302 | 1.0 | +1.1 |
| Informal | 1,056 | 3.5 |
2020 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Michael Healy | Labor | 16,006 | 55.6 | +2.2 |
| Sam Marino | Liberal National | 12,788 | 44.4 | -2.2 |
Booths in Cairns have been divided into three parts: central, north and south.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 51.8% in the south to 61.7% in the centre. Labor won 53.6% of the pre-poll vote.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| North | 12.5 | 59.3 | 3,294 | 11.4 |
| Central | 12.0 | 61.7 | 2,689 | 9.3 |
| South | 7.4 | 51.8 | 1,655 | 5.7 |
| Pre-poll | 8.6 | 53.6 | 14,488 | 50.3 |
| Other votes | 11.0 | 56.6 | 6,668 | 23.2 |
Election results in Cairns at the 2020 Queensland state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal National Party and the Greens.
Historically a solid Labor seat, save for one term during the Newman LNP landslide. ALP retain.
pretty sure this will rule out the LNP’s as well
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-04-04/warren-yolonde-entsch-federal-mp-leichardt-queensland/103657670?utm_campaign=abc_news_web&utm_content=link&utm_medium=content_shared&utm_source=abc_news_web
@caleb doubtful its not a scandal
Geena Court, former ONP candidate for Leichhardt, seems to be the ONP candidate for Cairns. –>
https://www.facebook.com/GeenaCourt.PHON/posts/pfbid02UCjsMnZquxGaiiUWXgENDbK69pK4PUn369MZzonSWp9uzVRHM5uSvmW4swfCg2nl
https://www.facebook.com/photo?fbid=122142780266202237&set=pcb.122142780284202237
LNP gain but I think it’ll be one they’ll struggle to sandbag in 2028. Much more of a traditional Labor seat than Barron River.
Healy might even try and win the seat back if he loses it in October.
LNP pickup, but not by a big margin. I doubt Cairns would swing as much as most other regional seats. To be fair, Cairns LGA itself has a pretty big urban centre and is more dependent on tourism and social and healthcare services than farming or mining.
It’s historically Labor held, save for the 2012 landslide, but I wouldn’t call it a stronghold or red wall seat. I’d say KAP would do better than One Nation if they’re running.
Transposing federal and state results is never ideal but it can be interesting. Based on the 2022 federal results, all of the seats in Rockhampton, Mackay and Townsville would be won by the LNP – fairly comfortably. Same goes for Bundaberg, Maryborough and Hervey Bay. However, the seats in Cairns would be line ball and could go either way – local and state factors could come into it but the ALP might hold onto one or some. Possibly Barron River could end up a more likely Labor hold than Cairns.
The betting markets currently have this seat as a truly even contest between the majors. Healy and Entsch both paying $1.83.
@Wilson the LNP will gain it. Sportsbet notably has low odds for some key seats.
@Redistributed Barron River is a write-off for Labor. They will not hold it. It’s a marginal seat covering northern Cairns which is the more conservative part of Cairns and the election is very bad for Labor.
the only seat labor will hold north of brisbane is gladstone. though i rate cook as a tossup
@John I almost agree but only because Curtis Pitt retired. He wasn’t losing Mulgrave. Now I have Mulgrave as a toss up. I can’t see Saunders losing Maryborough, too strong of a local candidate. Otherwise it’s a wipe out for Labor north of Brisbane, even Mackay. I think Strelow wins Rocky.
I think people underestimate how multicultural the Gold Coast and Cairns are. Cairns has one of the most multicultural CBDs in Australia.
Percentage of people in CBD suburbs that speak English at home:
* Adelaide: 49.1%
* Brisbane City: 51.2%
* Cairns City: 45.5%
* City (Canberra): 50.8%
* Darwin City: 52.1%
* Hobart: 57.3%
* Melbourne: 35.9%
* Newcastle: 83.2%
* Perth: 53.0%
* Southport (Gold Coast): 67.4%
* Sydney: 31.6%
* Townsville City: 77.0%
Percentage of people in CBD suburbs born in Australia:
* Adelaide: 41.0%
* Brisbane City: 39.3%
* Cairns City: 35.9%
* City (Canberra): 44.6%
* Darwin City: 42.8%
* Hobart: 50.6%
* Melbourne: 17.5%
* Newcastle: 75.4%
* Perth: 38.5%
* Southport (Gold Coast): 54.1%
* Sydney: 22.3%
* Townsville City: 63.1%
I’m not sure why, perhaps direct flights to Japan there helps, but there are a LOT of Japanese people on the Gold Coast and in Cairns. I personally know three people on the Gold Coast from Japan, which may not seem like a lot but it’s more than I know from most other countries.
@feel I think that the anti Labor swing is still gonna overwhelm that personal vote outside Brisbane.
@Nether Portal
Great analysis. I would expect the CBDs of Brisbane, Perth and even Adelaide to become more multicultural as they grow and increased density. I think Haymarket (NSW) has the highest overseas born %
Poll Blunger Profile shows 5 candidates on the Ballot
as well as some information on Yolonde Entsch’s unhelpful publicity in June 2023
https://www.pollbludger.net/qld2024/LA.htm?s=Cairns
@Nimalan for CBDs or suburbs in general? I’m not sure about suburbs in general but definitely for CBDs. In Haymarket (which is where Chinatown, Koreatown and Thai Town are located), just 13.0% of residents were born in Australia according to the 2021 census. 21.4% were born in Mainland China, 17.5% in Thailand, 11.2% in Indonesia (the Sydney CBD also has lots of Indonesians and Thais), 3.0% in Malaysia and 2.8% in South Korea.
40.9% have Chinese ancestry, 16.2% Thai, 8.7% English, 7.2% Indonesian and 3.8% Australian. 82.7% speak a language other than English at home (24.3% Mandarin, 16.3% Thai, Indonesian 8.6%, Cantonese 5.7% and Korean 2.5%). Just 18.0% speak English at home.
As for religion, obviously because most people there are Chinese the main religion is no religion (40.1%), and because there are lots of Thais too Buddhism is second (27.7%). 10.5% didn’t state their religion, 8.2% are Catholic and 2.9% are “Christian, nfd”.
Other random stats:
* The unemployment rate there is 9.8% (I’m considering doing a map for the unemployment rate in each electorate).
* 58.5% of people don’t own any motor vehicles and the average number of motor vehicles per person is 0.5.
* The weekly household income is $1,931.
@Caleb my predicted order of candidates (i.e most to least first preferences):
1. LNP (↑)
2. Labor (↓)
3. Greens (↑)
4. One Nation (↓)
5. Independent (—)
TPP:
1. LNP (↑)
2. Labor (↓)
LNP GAIN from Labor.
@Nether Portal, yeah that’s what i have on first preferences too, TPP for me is a Tossup.
@ Nether Portal
Haymarket is considered a separate suburb from the CBD by the ABS. It seems to have a lot of international students. I am trying to find out the suburb which has the lowest english speaking percentage. We dont have any suburbs in 2021 census where a single suburb had majority with one particular ancestry. At the 2016 Census Both Burwood and Hurstville had a majority of people who nominated Chinese ancestory. However, by 2021 census that percentage dropped and the Nepalese community grew.
@Nimalan not sure about that one, but I’m linking a good tool for finding out how multicultural suburbs are on the general Australia 2025 page.
The Katter’s ended up not running a candidate here after all. They’ve scaled their campaign back even further from 2020 when they still ran in seats like Warrego, Burnett and Rockhampton. No candidate in Mackay or Whitsunday either, a last-minute pick in Barron River.
Cairns…. do voters like family dynasties? May be won by party other than lnp
Can’t be worse than the alleged stories of Townsville voters not able to tell Troy Thompson apart from Phillip Thompson.
This seat voted 59.7% No to the Voice. Labor got 51.5% of the TPP in 2022 here.
However, I should note that that does not include the many Cairns voters who prepolled. Around 10,000 people in this electorate voted on election day, while the rest voted early or by postals. Therefore, it is probable that the LNP would’ve won this in 2022 by winning the prepoll vote.