LNP 7.0%
Incumbent MP
Dale Last, since 2015.
Geography
North Queensland. Burdekin stretches from the southern outskirts of Townsville down the Queensland coast to Bowen. The seat then extends further south to the rural hinterland covering Moranbah and Nebo. The main towns in the seat are Ayr and Bowen. The seat covers all of Burdekin LGA and parts of Isaac, Mackay, Townsville and Whitsunday LGAs.
History
The seat of Burdekin has existed since 1950. For most of that time the seat has been held by the Country/National Party, although it was held by One Nation and then Labor for two terms from 1998 to 2004.
The seat was won by independent Arthur Coburn in 1950. Coburn held the seat until 1969, when he was succeeded by the Country Party’s Val Bird.
Bird held the seat until his retirement in 1983, when he was replaced by Mark Stoneman. Stoneman held the seat until his retirement in 1998.
At the 1998 election, the seat was won by One Nation’s Jeff Knuth. Knuth, like most One Nation MPs, soon quit the party. He ended up joining the City Country Alliance and ran for them in 2001.
In 2001 Knuth lost to the ALP’s Steve Rodgers. Rodgers held the seat for one term, before losing to Rosemary Menkens of the National Party in 2004.
Rosemary Menkens retained the seat in 2006 and 2009. The 2009 redistribution made Burdekin a notional Labor seat, but Menkens gained a sufficient swing to retain the seat, this time for the Liberal National Party.
In 2012, Rosemary Menkens increased her margin. Menkens retired in 2015, and was succeeded by LNP candidate Dale Last. Last was re-elected in 2017, despite the redistribution giving Labor a notional majority based on 2015 results. Last increased his majority to win a third term in 2020.
- Anne Baker (Labor)
- Daniel Carroll (Katter’s Australian Party)
- Andrew Elborne (One Nation)
- Dale Last (Liberal National)
- Amanda Nickson (Family First)
Assessment
Burdekin is a reasonably safe LNP seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Dale Last | Liberal National | 11,792 | 39.7 | +8.0 |
| Michael Brunker | Labor | 9,425 | 31.7 | -4.2 |
| Sam Cox | Katter’s Australian Party | 4,212 | 14.2 | +14.2 |
| Clive Remmer | One Nation | 2,080 | 7.0 | -22.3 |
| Carolyn Moriarty | North Queensland First | 900 | 3.0 | +3.0 |
| Jack Smith | Greens | 600 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| Dominique Thiriet | Animal Justice | 419 | 1.4 | +1.4 |
| Benjamin Wood | United Australia | 274 | 0.9 | +0.9 |
| Informal | 1,012 | 3.3 |
2020 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Dale Last | Liberal National | 16,944 | 57.0 | +6.3 |
| Michael Brunker | Labor | 12,758 | 43.0 | -6.3 |
Booths in Burdekin have been divided into four areas. Polling places have been divided along local government lines. Three areas are named after the local government area, with the Isaacs area named ‘south’.
The LNP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in three out of four areas, ranging from 53.7% in the south to 66.7% in Burdekin. Labor polled 53.5% in Whitsunday. The LNP also won 55.9% of the pre-poll vote, which made up a majority of the turnout.
Katter’s Australian Party came third, with a primary vote ranging from 7.5% in the south to 21.7% in Townsville.
| Voter group | KAP prim % | LNP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Burdekin | 18.6 | 66.7 | 2,507 | 8.4 |
| South | 7.5 | 53.7 | 2,389 | 8.0 |
| Whitsunday | 9.6 | 46.5 | 1,318 | 4.4 |
| Townsville | 21.7 | 61.0 | 1,205 | 4.1 |
| Pre-poll | 14.5 | 55.9 | 16,222 | 54.6 |
| Other votes | 13.6 | 58.9 | 6,061 | 20.4 |
Election results in Burdekin at the 2020 Queensland state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal National Party, Labor and Katter’s Australian Party.
And @Daniel T Labor will face a wipeout, but it will not be like 2012 (consistent swing in all areas). It will be disproportionate, with bigger swings in crime-affected regional areas and outer suburbs, and smaller swings in middle and inner suburbs.
@Nether Portal the comment about Wallsend was me, not @Real Talk. And I did realise my mistake afterwards. It’s not exactly a common occurrence regardless and the Coalition haven’t had a seat above the 30% mark in Queensland since 1980 (although the two-party vote in Southern Downs in 2012 was almost certainly above it, but we only have vs. KAP figures.)
@Scart Yeah, it’ll probably land around 68-72% depending on what the statewide swing turns out to be in the end.
@Nether Portal, your comprehension skills need a massive swing, as I believe it was Laine, not I who brought up Wallsend. Anyhow. Your heart is in the right place, even if your analysis is consistently coloured by your naked desire to see 2012 Electric Boogaloo on election night.
After being in power for 30 of the past 35 years, it’s natural for voters to be looking for change. I just wish the LNP had policies – any policies! Even Newman had them! – beyond four word slogans.
My mistake guys don’t shoot me.
@Real Talk I don’t see it being anything other than a landslide for the LNP, even Labor knows this.
If Labor win the election I’ll wear an Arsenal jersey for a whole week. For context, I support Tottenham.
For those who don’t know Arsenal is Tottenham’s biggest rival (this is soccer/football by the way).
Anyway, I stand with my prediction. LNP TPP over 65%.
@Nether Portal. All good. I have no desire to shoot you, metaphorically or literally. I think we all take our own opinions rather too seriously at times. I respect the right of anyone to share their opinions, and especially if their opinion is grounded in reality and fact.
For what it’s worth I agree that the LNP will win, probably in the order of 55-60 seats. We are not looking at a repeat of 2012. Brisbane will decide who wins the election, and the coastal seats will decide by how much.
Alp retain 30 to 40 seats more likely 30 unless something changes massively. Kap4 Noosa ind 1 green 2 to 4
Lnp 55 to 65.
This is 2pp approx 55/45 against labor
@ np
I think you are suggesting a better result than 2012 which very very unlikely
Any talk of Labor getting 10% or less in seats is bombastic nonsense.
In 2012, which the LNP won with a 2pp of almost 63% (that’s 5% above any poll I’ve seen for this election), a quick flick though Wikipedia gives these primary votes for Labor below 15%:
Nicklin 7.86
Nanango 10.55
Dalrymple 11.09
Maryborough 11.77
Gympie 12.24
Noosa 12.44
Warrego 12.64
Southern Downs 13.41
Beaudesert 13.98
Condamine 14.16
Callide 14.76
So that’s more or less your utter, absolute bedrock for Labor’s vote – most of these seats are where you can reasonably expect to see Labor’s vote drop below 20%. Scratch Nicklin and Maryborough because the independent MPs are no longer there (Labor might even hold Maryborough), maybe add the other KAP seats, but that’s basically it.
@Bird of paradox the Labor vote in Maiwar will most likely drop below 15% at this election too. Decent chance of it falling below 20% in seats like Gregory, Broadwater and Surfers Paradise as well.
@Laine all of the seats you mentioned will have Labor primaries of under 20%. Burdekin, Burnett, etc might also be under that.
@Bird of Paradox, I think Labor will do worse outside of Brisbane than in 2012 but better in Brisbane than in 2012. Seats like Townsville will be safer for the LNP than ever before but they won’t be getting seats like Waterford.