Burdekin – Queensland 2024

And @Daniel T Labor will face a wipeout, but it will not be like 2012 (consistent swing in all areas). It will be disproportionate, with bigger swings in crime-affected regional areas and outer suburbs, and smaller swings in middle and inner suburbs.

@Nether Portal the comment about Wallsend was me, not @Real Talk. And I did realise my mistake afterwards. It’s not exactly a common occurrence regardless and the Coalition haven’t had a seat above the 30% mark in Queensland since 1980 (although the two-party vote in Southern Downs in 2012 was almost certainly above it, but we only have vs. KAP figures.)

@Scart Yeah, it’ll probably land around 68-72% depending on what the statewide swing turns out to be in the end.

@Nether Portal, your comprehension skills need a massive swing, as I believe it was Laine, not I who brought up Wallsend. Anyhow. Your heart is in the right place, even if your analysis is consistently coloured by your naked desire to see 2012 Electric Boogaloo on election night.

After being in power for 30 of the past 35 years, it’s natural for voters to be looking for change. I just wish the LNP had policies – any policies! Even Newman had them! – beyond four word slogans.

My mistake guys don’t shoot me.

@Real Talk I don’t see it being anything other than a landslide for the LNP, even Labor knows this.

If Labor win the election I’ll wear an Arsenal jersey for a whole week. For context, I support Tottenham.

For those who don’t know Arsenal is Tottenham’s biggest rival (this is soccer/football by the way).

Anyway, I stand with my prediction. LNP TPP over 65%.

@Nether Portal. All good. I have no desire to shoot you, metaphorically or literally. I think we all take our own opinions rather too seriously at times. I respect the right of anyone to share their opinions, and especially if their opinion is grounded in reality and fact.

For what it’s worth I agree that the LNP will win, probably in the order of 55-60 seats. We are not looking at a repeat of 2012. Brisbane will decide who wins the election, and the coastal seats will decide by how much.

Alp retain 30 to 40 seats more likely 30 unless something changes massively. Kap4 Noosa ind 1 green 2 to 4
Lnp 55 to 65.
This is 2pp approx 55/45 against labor

@ np
I think you are suggesting a better result than 2012 which very very unlikely

Any talk of Labor getting 10% or less in seats is bombastic nonsense.

In 2012, which the LNP won with a 2pp of almost 63% (that’s 5% above any poll I’ve seen for this election), a quick flick though Wikipedia gives these primary votes for Labor below 15%:

Nicklin 7.86
Nanango 10.55
Dalrymple 11.09
Maryborough 11.77
Gympie 12.24
Noosa 12.44
Warrego 12.64
Southern Downs 13.41
Beaudesert 13.98
Condamine 14.16
Callide 14.76

So that’s more or less your utter, absolute bedrock for Labor’s vote – most of these seats are where you can reasonably expect to see Labor’s vote drop below 20%. Scratch Nicklin and Maryborough because the independent MPs are no longer there (Labor might even hold Maryborough), maybe add the other KAP seats, but that’s basically it.

@Bird of paradox the Labor vote in Maiwar will most likely drop below 15% at this election too. Decent chance of it falling below 20% in seats like Gregory, Broadwater and Surfers Paradise as well.

@Laine all of the seats you mentioned will have Labor primaries of under 20%. Burdekin, Burnett, etc might also be under that.

@Bird of Paradox, I think Labor will do worse outside of Brisbane than in 2012 but better in Brisbane than in 2012. Seats like Townsville will be safer for the LNP than ever before but they won’t be getting seats like Waterford.

QLD election could certainly be 60-40. Remember in the NT the final poll was 54-46 to the CLP but final outcome was 57-43. So margin of error the LNP could do better 3 points and win 60-40

My plans for Burdekin is to remove as much of townsville as possible into the thuringowa townsville and mundingburra. The plan is to move thuringowa and townsville into the suburbs north of the Ross River as much as needed then have mundingburra rake in as much of townsville from Burdekin and for this reason I’ve renamed it Ross

@Daniel T everyone doubted the NT polls but they turned out to be pretty accurate. Remember the first poll was 56% CLP TPP to 44% Labor TPP using the same preference flows as the 2022 federal election in the Territory. That was a Redbridge poll and on that Labor would’ve only held like four seats.

Queensland could be 60% LNP TPP, I would say it’s probable that the LNP will get ovwe 57% TPP. If the LNP got 60% of the TPP vote though that would represent a +13.2% swing to the LNP statewide and I would say that Labor would lose Ipswich and Logan in an event like that. I think they will already lose Logan and fail to get Ipswich West back but I think they will likely hang on by a thread in Ipswich.

@John should Burdekin become entirely outside of Townsville?

@npid like to do it but it will depend on the final numbers when the redistribution rolls around. Currently the 3 main townsville seats are collectively 17% under quota. Given that lda gives an edge to some seats, some seats will need to be drawn slightly over quota asunlike wa total lda only makes up around about 30% of a seat (give or take) so my plan is to abolish Mirani and draw a few seats roughly 2% over quota . So all up I’m wanting to transfer .23 of a quota from Burdekin which I’m hoping is roughly its share of townsville. Townsville currently is 3 and ambitious quotas and given that Hinchinbrook is at quota and shouldn’t need any changes I’m wanting to move Burdekin out of townsville as much as possible. Currently Burdekin takes in parts of townsville Whitsunday Mackay and issac as well as all of burdekin.

This seat was a missed opportunity for One Nation in 2017, they were only behind the LNP by 2.4% they need to outpoll the LNP and beat Labor on the 2CP.