Bonney – Queensland 2024

Easy LNP retain with Sam O’Connor. Labor won’t even try to win this whilst he’s there. Future LNP leader imo.

8% of the margin occurred at the last election.it seems the Beatie govt did very well in 2001 when the gold coast opened their doors to Labor.
and then the Labor gold cost mps entrenched themselves till 2012.with a likely swing to the lnp and a 10% margin this seat is a likely lnp retain

LNP scored a big swing whilst the state had swung to Labor in 2020. How did that happen?

Sam has a huge local following and works his electorate hard. The swing in Bonney was very out of character compared to seats (including neighbouring Gaven).

@Votante he’s a popular moderate MP. Not that it matters but interestingly he was the only LNP MP in Queensland to openly vote Yes to the Voice. Sky News criticises Sam the same way they do to Matt Kean by claiming they both belong in the teals or in the Labor Party and aren’t “conservative” enough to be in the Liberal Party, a line repeated by One Nation regularly (e.g in NSW people like Gladys, Matt Kean, Mark Speakman and even Dominic Perrottet are frequently targeted as being “fake conservatives destroying the Liberal Party” by One Nation given that they’re not as conservative as some elements of the party). The swing was also less to Labor or even to the LNP on the Gold Coast because of the border closures (Barron River in Cairns also had only a small swing to Labor on TPP and the LNP nearly finished first there because Cairns’ economy relies on tourism, while Cairns had a relatively small swing to Labor but bigger than in Barron River).

In 2020 it actually seems that the touristy areas did not swing hardly to Labor. I mentioned the Gold Coast and Cairns above, but I’d also point out that Whitsunday, a seat where tourism is the main industry (the name explains it: it includes the Whitsundays and the Whitsunday Coast which includes Proserpine, Cannonvale and the nearby resort town of Airlie Beach). The swings to Labor weren’t big in the Townsville seats either.

If you look at the seats that swung to the LNP on TPP, most were in coastal areas:

* Bonney (LNP): Gold Coast seat, +8.38% to LNP
* Bundamba (Labor): Ipswich seat, +0.40% to LNP (notional; contest was Labor vs One Nation)
* Burdekin (LNP): coastal seat, +6.25% to LNP
* Burnett (LNP): coastal seat, +0.14% to LNP
* Condamine (LNP): rural seat, +5.00% to LNP
* Cook (Labor): remote seat, +1.90% to LNP (notional since the previous contest was Labor vs One Nation)
* Cooper (Labor): Brisbane seat, +0.16% to LNP
* Gregory (LNP): rural seat, +4.00% to LNP (notional since the previous contest was LNP vs One Nation)
* Keppel (Labor): coastal seat, +0.10% to LNP (notional since the previous contest was Labor vs One Nation)
* Mackay (Labor): provincial seat, +1.61% to LNP
* Maroochydore (LNP): Sunshine Coast seat, +0.60% to LNP
* Mudgeeraba (LNP): Gold Coast seat, +0.24% to LNP
* Scenic Rim (LNP): semi-rural seat, +2.20% to LNP
* Stafford (Labor): Brisbane seat, +0.22% to LNP
* Toowoomba North (LNP): Toowoomba seat, +1.60% to LNP
Toowoomba South (LNP): Toowoomba seat, +0.24% to LNP
* Warrego (LNP): rural seat, +8.80% to LNP
* Whitsunday (LNP): coastal seat, +2.58% to LNP
* Woodridge (Labor): Brisbane seat, +0.14% to LNP

As you can see, at least five of those heavily rely on tourism (Bonney, Burdekin, Keppel, Mackay, Maroochydore and Whitsunday). Another three are rural seats that rely heavily on farming (Condamine, Gregory and Warrego). Another four are Brisbane or Ipswich-based seats with small swings against Labor that weren’t nearly enough for the LNP to win them (Bundamba, Cooper, Stafford and Woodbridge). Both Toowoomba seats (Toowoomba North and Toowoomba South) also had small swings to the LNP. So that only leaves three random seats: Burnett (a coastal-rural mixed seat in the Wide Bay-Burnett region; it completely surrounds the seat of Bundaberg), Cook (a remote Cape York and Torres Strait Islands-based seat where there was a tiny swing against Labor), Mudgeeraba (while it is a Gold Coast-based seat, it’s in the outer suburbs and includes many semi-rural suburbs and doesn’t even touch the coastline or include any of the theme parks so hence it’s not a touristy part of the Gold Coast) and Scenic Rim (which is a (semi-)rural seat in the Gold Coast Hinterland and the Scenic Rim region, which includes the town of Beaudesert).

As for the other touristy areas like Cairns and Townsville, plus the other Gold Coast seats, the swing was quite small. The only touristy areas that Labor got big or even decent swings in outside of Brisbane were on the Sunshine Coast or just north of the Sunshine Coast (i.e Bundaberg and Hervey Bay).

Here’s an analysis of how the Gold Coast played out in 2020 (TPP vote and swing):

* Bonney: 60.07% LNP (+8.38%); Sam O’Connor re-elected with big swing; former marginal seat becomes safe
* Broadwater: 66.57% LNP (–1.57%); David Crisafulli re-elected in very safe seat with a small swing against him
* Burleigh: 51.21% LNP (–3.65%); Michael Hart narrowly re-elected in marginal seat despite swing; wins on postals and prepolls
* Coomera: 51.08% LNP (–2.40%); Michael Crandon narrowly re-elected in marginal seat despite swing
* Currumbin: 50.52% LNP (–2.79%); Laura Gerber narrowly re-elected in marginal seat despite swing; Currumbin becomes an ultra-marginal seat
* Gaven: 57.75% ALP (+7.04%); Meaghan Scanlon re-elected in Labor’s southernmost Queensland seat and Labor’s sole seat on the Gold Coast; Gaven becomes a fairly safe seat
* Mermaid Beach: 54.39% LNP (–1.87%); Ray Stevens re-elected in marginal seat
* Mudgeeraba: 60.09% LNP (+0.24%); Ros Bates re-elected in safe seat
* Southport: 55.41% LNP (–1.83%); Rob Molhoek re-elected in blue-ribbon seat
* Surfers Paradise: 66.22% LNP (–3.57%); John-Paul Langbroek re-elected in very safe blue-ribbon seat
* Theodore: 53.33% LNP (–0.40%)

In comparison, here’s the Sunshine Coast:

* Buderim: 55.29% LNP (–6.12%); Brent Mickelberg re-elected in safe seat; Buderim becomes a marginal seat
* Caloundra: 52.51% ALP (+5.92%); Jason Hunt gains seat from LNP; Stuart Coward fails to succeed retiring MP Mark McArdle
* Glass House: 51.58% LNP (–1.84%); Andrew Powell re-elected in marginal seat despite swing
* Kawana: 59.31% LNP; Jarrod Bleijie re-elected in safe blue-ribbon seat
* Maroochydore: 59.12% LNP (+0.60%); Fiona Simpson re-elected in blue-ribbon seat
* Nicklin: 50.14% ALP (+5.42%); Robert Skelton very narrowly gains seat from LNP; Marty Hunt fails to win a second term despite leading on primaries; shock win for Labor
* Ninderry: 54.11% LNP (–4.27%); Dan Purdie re-elected despite swing
* Noosa: 65.85% IND (+4.32%); independent Sandy Bolton easily re-elected for a second term; James Blevin fails to regain Noosa for the LNP after losing it to Bolton in 2017

As you can see, the Sunshine Coast saw big or decent swings to Labor while the Gold Coast only had small swings to Labor, as is seen by the average Sunshine Coast swing being like 4% whereas on the Gold Coast it was like 2%. The border closure would’ve had something to do with this (mixed with satisfaction with other COVID measures at the time): not just because of tourism but because the Gold Coast is right on the border so many people will have family and friends in NSW (especially around Tweed Heads), especially since you can easily walk from Coolangatta to Tweed Heads just like how you can easily walk from South Brisbane to West End.

Nether Portal, Id also add on the 2007 federal election both Fisher and Fairfax were marginal Liberal seats, whereas the 3 Gold Cost seats were safe seats still for the Liberals. Which clearly proves the Gold Coast is more politically conservative than its northern counterpart.

@ Daniel T
The Sunshine Coast seats are more demographically mixed and includes more lower income inland rural areas away from the coast. I also dont think there is so far the level of wealth accumulation you see in parts of the Gold Coast.

As Nether Portal pointed out, moderates like O’Connor are not well-liked by the Sky News set. This isn’t too great a problem when they don’t have power over the Liberal Party/LNP and are simply used to bolster the numbers of a conservative government, such as when Abbott or Morrison were PM. But when a moderate becomes leader, like Turnbull, the infighting is something to behold.

I think it would be a very interesting experiment to see what would happen if O’Connor or a similar moderate became Queensland LNP leader for an extended period. Would the conservatives be content to play happy families so long as they kept winning elections? Or would they be considering defecting to parties like One Nation or KAP? Or would they stay and white ant the leader from within? There’s some history with the last scenario, as there were reports that some LNP MPs were sabotaging Deb Frecklington before the 2020 election.

Agree Wilson about the sabotaging of a moderate leader, especially when that faction is considered the minority of the party as a whole (like Queensland and also Federally where Malcolm Turnbull was also ‘sabotaged’ to a certain extent with media leaks from various right wing Coalition members).

In the situation where the right wing/hardcore conservatives form the majority of the party room, it would be preferrable for one of them to hold the leadership with the moderates just playing a supporting role in terms of having key ministerial portfolios to assist in delivering the government’s message.

Yoh An, I agree that’s the most functional way for the LNP to be. The moderates seem to create less of a ruckus under a conservative leader as vice versa.

I wonder if that’s sustainable in the long term though, at least at the federal level. Bridget Archer remains in the Liberal Party but has faced open threats over her position from conservatives like Eric Abetz and neighbouring MP Gavin Pearce. I feel like at some point the animosity might get to the moderates and they push back. Plus there’s the ongoing threat of the teals to contend with, essentially moderate Liberals who have refused to bend to conservatives any longer.

Sam O’Connor is still young, but if he were the leader, he wouldn’t last long as a moderate liberal.

QLD is heavily dominated by the LNP federally. He would butt heads with Dutton. He’d definitely lose support from the Matt Canavans of this world. There is also a risk of an exodus of members to One Nation or KAP as Wilson above alluded to. This is QLD, not NSW, VIC, ACT or TAS.

There is also the Sky News effect – they’d insinuate that he’s a mole or some Greens plant. Funny thing is that Matt Kean isn’t even the leader but I think he has copped more criticism from Sky News than Mark Speakman has, and possibly Chris Minns as well.

Wilson if the moderates feel they can no longer support a right-wing heavy Coalition, they could always defect and become independents. This is what happened for moderate Republicans in the US as they left the party and advocated their positions usually as independents, but some did a complete 180 and joined the opposition Democratic Party.

can someone confirm who the One Nation candidate for Bonney is? is it Sandy Roach or Scott Phillip?

Scott Phillip is the candidate for Bonney. Sandy Roach is the candidate for Gavin.

Sam O’Connor is a future leader. This is my current electorate, by the way.

This seat is NOT safe for the lnp but a 10% margin in a marginal seat suggests the sitting mp is entrenched

@ MQ correct but sitting MP is popular

Only gonna safer

@mick if it’s 10% it’s not marginal it’s safe. Marginal is 6% and under 10% is considered safe.

@john… the point I was trying to make is this seat is safe for the sitting mp a marginal seat by nature

This is my electorate. Here’s my how to vote card:

1. Sam O’Connor (LNP)
2. Scott Philip (One Nation)
3. Maria Theresia Rossouw (Family First)
4. Kyle Kelly-Collins (Labor)
5. Amin Javanmard (Greens)

I’ve decided to put One Nation above Family First, and while the HTV cards haven’t been released yet as far as I know, this will probably be the same as the LNP HTV card (except they might switch One Nation and Family First around).

@ NP
Curious to know why you prefer ONP over FFP?

@Nimalan I think FFP are too focused on social and religious issues. One Nation has other policies, and while I don’t agree with them I can understand why people vote for them (particularly why people vote for Pauline Hanson herself).

@ Nether Portal
Fair point. Last time at the Victorian state election I put the Freedom party last, i hate conspiracy theories. In the seat of Narre Warren South, there was a neo-nazi who took a selfie outside a Nazi Concentration camp smiling. I encouraged voters who i know to put him last irrespective if they were Labor or Liberal voters. Fortunately, he did come last in primaries.

Margin here to increase by 3-6%, Sam has only become more well-known since 2020.