Surfers Paradise – QLD 2017

LNP 20.4%

Incumbent MP
John-Paul Langbroek, since 2004.

Geography
Gold Coast. Surfers Paradise covers the central Gold Coast suburbs of Surfers Paradise, Benowa, Broadbeach, Bundall, Paradise Waters, Main Beach, the Southport Spit and parts of Ashmore.

Redistribution
Surfers Paradise shifted south, gaining Broadbeach Waters and Clear Island Waters from Mermaid Beach, and losing Ashmore and Benowa to Southport. These changes increased the LNP margin from 19.2% to 20.4%.

History
The seat of Surfers Paradise has existed since 1972. Barring a single by-election, the seat has always been won by either the Country/National party or the Liberal Party, and has been held by two leaders of the conservative side of politics.

The seat was first won in 1972 by the Country Party candidate, Gold Coast mayor Bruce Small. Small stepped down as mayor in 1973 and returned to the post in 1976.

In 1977 Small was defeated by the Liberal Party’s Bruce Bishop. Bishop held the seat for one term, losing in 1980 to National Party candidate Rob Borbidge.

Borbidge was appointed to the ministry when Joh Bjelke-Petersen was replaced as Premier by Mike Ahern. Borbidge served as a minister until the National Party lost in 1989.

Borbidge was elected as National Party leader in 1991, leading the party to the 1992 and 1995 elections. In 1996, a by-election result saw the Labor Party lose its majority, and Borbidge formed a minority government in coalition with the Liberal Party and with the support of an independent MP.

Borbidge lost power at the 1998 election. He served as Opposition Leader in the first term of the Beattie government. After the Nationals and Liberals suffered a massive defeat in 2001, Borbidge resigned as Nationals leader and as Member for Surfers Paradise.

At the 2001 by-election, both the Liberals and Nationals contested the seat. Borbidge had polled 49.8% at the general election, but the new National Party candidate barely managed 8%.

Liberal candidate John-Paul Langbroek polled 21%, but lost to independent councillor Lex Bell, who polled almost 36%.

In 2004, Bell lost to Langbroek, who ran without National Party competition.

Langbroek, along with all other Liberal MPs, joined the newly formed Liberal National Party in 2008. When the LNP lost the 2009 election, leader Lawrence Springborg stepped down and Langbroek was elected as LNP leader.

Langbroek led the party until March 2011, when he was replaced as party leader by Lord Mayor of Brisbane Campbell Newman, elected as party leader from outside Parliament.

Langbroek was re-elected in 2012 and 2015, and served as a minister from 2012 to 2015.

Candidates

• Tony Walker (Labor)
• John-Paul Langbroek (Liberal National)
• Tylere Baker-Pearce (Independent)
• Scott Turner (Greens)
• Chris Manley (Independent)

Assessment
Surfers Paradise is a very safe LNP seat.

2015 election result

2015 two-party-preferred result

Booth breakdown

Booths in Southern Downs have been divided into four areas: Warwick, north, south and west.

The LNP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all four areas, polling around 64% in Warwick and the South and 73-74% in the north and west.

Two-candidate-preferred votes in Surfers Paradise at the 2015 QLD state election