ALP 1.4%
Incumbent MP
Mick de Brenni, since 2015.
Geography
South-Eastern Queensland. Springwood covers northern parts of the City of Logan and western parts of the City of Redland, on the southern fringe of Brisbane. Springwood covers the suburbs of Rochedale South, Springwood, Daisy Hill, Shailer Park, Logandale and Mount Cotton.
Redistribution
Springwood expanded to the east, gaining sparsely populated areas previously contained in Redlands and Mansfield. These changes cut the Labor margin from 1.7% to 1.4%.
History
Springwood repeatedly changed hands throughout the 1980s and 1990s, but has remained in Labor hands for the last decade.
The seat was first won in 1986 by the National Party’s Huan Fraser. He briefly served as a minister in 1989 before losing his seat at the 1989 election.
Molly Robson won the seat for the ALP in 1989, and held it for two seats before losing to the Liberal Party’s Luke Woolmer in 1995. The ALP was hit in Springwood in 1995 due to a controversial tollway planned to be built through a local koala sanctuary. The Democrats polled over 18% and the Liberals won in a huge swing with preferences from other candidates.
Grant Musgrove won the seat back for the ALP in 1998. He resigned from the ALP in 2000 after being embroiled in a scandal involving fraudulent electoral enrolments, and he was replaced at the 2001 election by Labor candidate Barbara Stone.
Barbara Stone held Springwood for four terms, from 2001 to 2012. In 2012, Stone lost to LNP candidate John Grant with a 19.5% swing.
Grant lost his seat to Labor’s Mick de Brenni in 2015.
Candidates
- John Taylor (Civil Liberties, Consumer Rights, No-Tolls)
- Mick de Brenni (Labor)
- Julie Talty (Liberal National)
- Neil Cotter (Greens)
Assessment
Springwood is a very marginal Labor seat and is likely to be fiercely contested at the election.
2015 election result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| John Grant | Liberal National | 12,547 | 42.1 | -13.6 | 42.2 |
| Mick De Brenni | Labor | 12,260 | 41.1 | +13.1 | 40.5 |
| Janina Leo | Greens | 2,595 | 8.7 | +2.0 | 8.5 |
| Peter Chamberlain | Palmer United Party | 1,504 | 5.0 | +5.0 | 5.1 |
| Chris Lawrie | Family First | 908 | 3.0 | +0.1 | 3.0 |
| Others | 0.7 | ||||
| Informal | 567 | 1.9 |
2015 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Mick De Brenni | Labor | 14,661 | 51.7 | +17.1 | 51.4 |
| John Grant | Liberal National | 13,678 | 48.3 | -17.1 | 48.6 |
| Exhausted | 1,475 | 4.9 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Springwood have been divided into three areas: central, east and north.
The ALP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 50.2% in the east to 55% in the north.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| North | 8.5 | 55.1 | 7,599 | 25.0 |
| Central | 8.4 | 52.1 | 6,583 | 21.6 |
| East | 8.8 | 50.2 | 6,544 | 21.5 |
| Other votes | 8.5 | 49.2 | 9,721 | 31.9 |
Two-party-preferred in Springwood at the 2015 QLD state election
This one should swing to the LNP, it has a history of being a marginal seat, but the area is trending more towards the the LNP. Strong candidate selection from them too will help.
Alot of vague generalizations there PRP, that ‘it should swing to the LNP’. I read an article from Paul Williams a couple of months ago the LNP were more worried with holding their own Brisbane marginals then gaining Labor’s.
Mick De Brenni is viewed by insiders as a rising star in the Labor party, also the sophomore surge will help him.
I would probably say Labor retain at this stage, but as the election gets closer I will be able to make a better educated guess.
Labor relied on not only The Greens but also Palmer United Party’s preferences to get across the line last time. The new boundaries are a lot more generous to the LNP than the margin of 1.4% suggests.
No doubt that de Brenni is viewed as a rising star, he’s an impressive campaigner and has been by far one of Labor’s best in his first term. I have seen too many instances where the so called sophomore surge doesn’t exist in Queensland, the electorate is just too volatile to classify individual seats in that way anymore.
We’re all speculating at this stage, including me, i just think based on the actual boundaries that the LNP will be favourite to win.
LNP gain
The lack of One Nation removes the issue of splitting the right vote and preference leakage. Plus the 5% Palmer vote needs to find a home. I expect improved LNP primary and a swing to them. Solid gain for the LNP.
LNP gain. Often a bellwether seat but not this time. Labor can win gov and lose this. The LNP have picked a strong candidate.