LNP 19.2%
Incumbent MP
Lawrence Springborg, since 2001. Previously Member for Carnarvon 1989-1992, Member for Warwick 1992-2001.
Geography
Southern Queensland. Southern Downs cover rural areas stretching along the Queensland-NSW border. Major centres include Warwick, Stanthorpe, Millmerran, Texas, Inglewood and Goondiwindi. Southern Downs covers Goondiwindi and Southern Downs LGAs and parts of Toowoomba local government area.
Redistribution
Southern Downs mostly maintained its existing boundaries, with a small area north of Leyburn being moved to Condamine.
History
The seat of Southern Downs was created at the 2001 election.
Southern Downs in 2001 was won by Lawrence Springborg, who had been a National Party MP since 1989, first for Carnarvon and then for Warwick.
Springborg had previously served briefly as a minister in the final months of the Borbidge government in 1998.
Springborg became leader of the National Party in 2003, and led the party to the 2004 and 2006 elections.
He stepped down as leader in 2006, but returned to the party’s leadership in 2008.
Later in 2008 he led the Nationals into a merger with the Liberal Party, forming the Liberal National Party. He led the LNP into the 2009 state election. He served as deputy leader of the LNP from 2009 to 2011, and served as Minister for Health in the Newman government from 2012 to 2015. Springborg again served as LNP leader from 2015 to 2016.
Candidates
- James Lister (Liberal National)
- Joel Richters (Labor)
- Rob Mackenzie (Independent)
- Josh Coyne (One Nation)
- Jay Nauss (Independent)
- Antonia Van Geuns (Greens)
Assessment
Southern Downs is a safe LNP seat on paper, although it’s worth noting that One Nation has polled highly in this area in the past, and if they do well they could threaten the sitting member’s hold on the seat.
2015 election result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Lawrence Springborg | Liberal National | 19,275 | 62.8 | -3.8 |
| Louise Ryan | Labor | 7,201 | 23.5 | +10.1 |
| Elizabeth Ure | Greens | 2,200 | 7.2 | +3.3 |
| John Spellman | Family First | 2,022 | 6.6 | +4.4 |
| Informal | 623 | 2.0 |
2015 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Lawrence Springborg | Liberal National | 20,008 | 69.2 | -10.6 |
| Louise Ryan | Labor | 8,906 | 30.8 | +10.6 |
| Exhausted | 1,784 | 5.8 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Southern Downs have been divided into four areas: Warwick, north, south and west.
The LNP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all four areas, polling around 64% in Warwick and the South and 73-74% in the north and west.
| Voter group | LNP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Warwick | 64.1 | 5,673 | 18.5 |
| South | 64.3 | 5,543 | 18.1 |
| North | 73.6 | 4,725 | 15.4 |
| West | 73.4 | 4,460 | 14.5 |
| Other votes | 70.7 | 10,297 | 33.5 |
Two-candidate-preferred votes in Southern Downs at the 2015 QLD state election
One Nation could have a real chance here because Lawrence Springborg is retiring because he didn’t become leader of the opposition, and one nation is all about ‘people before politics’ perhaps a suprise upset?
One Nation certainly looks favoured to be in the runoff against the LNP here, but the LNP primary vote is truly massive.
Very hard for One Nation to pull it off here, if they do and it’s not an outlier swing they would be winning ~20 seats statewide.
A Goondiwindi Councillor is also running as an independent (ex-LNP). Probably more likely than One Nation. LNP retain though.
LNP retain but expect a big swing against them with Springborg gone.