ALP 3.1%
Incumbent MP
Grace Grace, Member for Brisbane Central since 2015. Previously Member for Brisbane Central 2007-2012.
Geography
Central Brisbane. The seat covers the Brisbane CBD and the suburbs of Fortitude Valley, New Farm, Newstead, Spring Hill, Herston, Bowen Hills, Windsor and parts of Kelvin Grove, Wilston and Newmarket.
Redistribution
McConnel is a new name for the seat of Brisbane Central, gaining Petrie Terrace from Mount Coot-tha and losing Windsor and the remainder of Newmarket and Wilston to Clayfield and Stafford. These changes cut the Labor margin from 3.3% to 3.1%.
History
The seat of Brisbane Central has existed since 1977, and has always been held by the ALP.
The seat was first won in 1977 by Brian Davis. He had previously held the seat of Brisbane from 1969 to 1974, when he lost to the Liberal Party. He held Brisbane Central from 1977 to 1989.
In 1989 Davis was succeeded by Peter Beattie, the former State Secretary of the Queensland ALP. Beattie was appointed as Minister for Health in the Goss government in 1995. In 1996, the Goss government lost power and the National-Liberal coalition took power without an election. Following this change Beattie was elected as leader of the ALP.
Peter Beattie led the ALP into the 1998 election and became Premier at the head of a Labor minority government, which quickly gained a majority following a by-election. He won landslide victories in 2001, 2004 and 2006 before retiring in 2007.
At the following by-election, the seat was won by Labor candidate Grace Grace, former general secretary of the Queensland Council of Unions. Without a Liberal candidate, Grace’s main opposition came from Greens candidate Anne Boccabella, but retained the seat comfortably with a 7.9% margin.
Grace was re-elected in 2009, but Beattie’s 2006 margin of 14.4% collapsed to only 6%.
In 2012, Grace was defeated by LNP candidate Robert Cavallucci, but she won back the seat in 2015.
Candidates
- Jamie Forster (Liberal National)
- John Dobinson (Independent)
- Grace Grace (Labor)
- Kamala Emanuel (Independent)
- Kirsten Lovejoy (Greens)
- Edward Gilmour (Independent)
Assessment
McConnel is a marginal Labor seat, and could be in play.
2015 election result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Robert Cavallucci | Liberal National | 12,042 | 41.8 | -6.9 | 41.5 |
| Grace Grace | Labor | 10,590 | 36.8 | +3.1 | 36.4 |
| Kirsten Lovejoy | Greens | 5,355 | 18.6 | +3.3 | 19.3 |
| Kai Jones | Independent | 815 | 2.8 | +0.5 | 2.6 |
| Others | 0.1 | ||||
| Informal | 481 | 1.6 |
2015 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Grace Grace | Labor | 14,334 | 53.3 | +8.1 | 53.1 |
| Robert Cavallucci | Liberal National | 12,584 | 46.7 | -8.1 | 46.5 |
| Exhausted | 1,884 | 6.5 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in McConnel have been divided into three areas: centre, north and New Farm.
The ALP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 52% in New Farm to 60% in the north.
The Greens vote ranged from 19% in New Farm to 22.8% in the north.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| New Farm | 19.1 | 52.1 | 6,732 | 27.6 |
| North | 22.8 | 60.4 | 3,755 | 15.4 |
| Central | 22.5 | 56.4 | 2,071 | 8.5 |
| Other votes | 17.8 | 51.6 | 11,827 | 48.5 |
Election results in McConnel at the 2015 QLD state election
Click on the ‘visible layers’ box to toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.
glitch in this one Ben!
What’s the glitch?
top map is for barron river
i think everything else is ok
Thanks fixed.
Also a typo “These changes increased the Labor margin from 3.3% to 3.1%.”
A very high labor vote given that the electorate contains the most expensive suburbs in Brisbane which you would think would favor the LNP.
Labor bringing in compulsory preferential voting during the late hours of the night was to make sure they held seats like this with decent primary votes for the Greens. If Labor can’t hold this seat with the changes they themselves brought in, what a terrible backfire. You’d think the Greens vote would go up here this time re Adani and you’d have to think above 70 percent would go Labor second since they have to now fill in all the boxes? I doubt One Nation will waste their time here, they’d have little friends in this seat.
Labor are under serious threat in this seat from the Greens. If a quarter of Labor voters flip due to Adani then Labor will be excluded.
There are 3 Green placards with 200 metres on Kelvin Grove Road already, didn’t see any for other parties.
I see Labor retain this seat. I know the LNP talk about being a chance, but I really doubt the LNP will take any of Labor’s Brisbane marginals and will be more concerned about holding their own marginals in Brisbane.
The suggestion from Bennee “it’s under serious threat” from the Greens is overstating it. Labor is more concerned with the LNP then the Greens in this seat. Greens odds on Sportsbet in this seat are at $7.50 hardly earth shattering.
Labor can’t lose this seat to the LNP. 6.5% exhausted at the last election, with compulsory preferences the ALP margin is more likely +6% then +3%.
The bookies can offer what they like, I think a quarter of inner city ALP voters going Green in protest over Adani is not that unlikely at all, and if that were to happen the ALP would be excluded.
no onp candidate
ALP retain
My seat.. this campaign or lack there of has confused me locally. Sitting MP not really seen during campaign, lnp trying but not punching through – seems to be of their radar, green candidate everywhere but I really can’t see her message reasonating with the community which is becoming very blue chip. The local LNP councillor is extremely popular and held her vote at last council election and turns up to the opening of envelopes, the federal MP recorded a swing towards him at last years election despite only being a new candidate and a liberal at a poll where there were big swings against Turnbull. In my view area is becoming more LNP friendly and a extension of neighbouring Clayfield but Labor’s lack of campaigning indictates to me they are very confident of winning. Grace Grace is well know but is that enough? This will be one to watch and it will be interesting to see what happens. I do think Greens are really talking themselves up – candidate ran at both last council election and federal and said she would win – she didn’t improve vote.
I think LNP primary will hold up well here, but as noted compulsory preferences should boost the Labor margin. The real question is whether the Greens eat into Labor’s primary or even finisg second. If its tight between those two maybe preference leakage gives the LNP hope.
That said a Labor retain, with slightly reduced margin
Labor retain.
BV “Greens are really talking themselves up – candidate ran at both last council election and federal and said she would win – she didn’t improve vote”
March 2016 Central Ward election Kirsten Lovejoy got 22.5% (+4.1% swing from 2012 BCC election)
July 2016 Division of Brisbane election Kirsten Lovejoy got 19.4% (+5.1% swing from 2013 federal election)
In this election I’d guess she needs something like ~27% (+7% swing from 2012 QLD state election) to exclude the ALP and win on preferences.
I meant to write 2015 QLD state election there
Queensland Oberserver – I think you are spot on that the LNP primary vote will hold up – and I would go further and suggest it will increase in the New Farm / Teneriffe area where they tanked at last state election.
Bennee – Greens came very close to Labor vote at last Council election and could be in with a shot in overtaking especially if their vote increases in their ‘heartland’ area of Spring Hill.
The LNP will win on primaries I imagine (not that that helped them last time) but preferences will obviously determine winner. Either of the three could win at this stage. Interesting take from 2016 federal was LNP did win in this area comfortably with full preferential voting.
If I was a betting man I’d say Labor to win by a very thin margin making it a very interesting three way next time.