ALP 13.5%
Incumbent MP
Jordan is a new seat.
Geography
South-western fringe of Brisbane. Jordan covers parts of the cities of Logan and Ipswich, including the suburbs of Gailes, Carole Park, Camira, Augustine Heights, Brookwater, Springfield, New Beith, Lyons and Undullah.
Redistribution
Jordan is a new seat, created out of parts of Bundamba, Inala, Logan and Lockyer, along with an unpopulated part of Algester.
History
Jordan was created from parts of four electorates.
Bundamba is a safe Labor seat in the Ipswich area, and has been held by Labor since its creation in 1992 – it was one of only seven seats which stayed in Labor hands in 2012.
Inala is another safe Labor seat, and was also held by Labor at their lowpoint in 2012, and likewise has been Labor-held since its creation in 1992.
Lockyer is a semi-regional conservative seat. The seat was won by One Nation in 1998 and 2001 and by the LNP since then, although One Nation came close in 2015.
Logan is a relatively safe Labor seat – Labor has won the seat at all but one election since the seat was created in 1986 – the LNP did win in 2012.
Candidates
- Charis Mullen (Labor)
- Michael Pucci (One Nation)
- Duncan Murray (Liberal National)
- Steve Hodgson (Independent)
- Peter Ervik (Civil Liberties, Consumer Rights, No-Tolls)
- Phil Cutcliffe (Independent)
- Steven Purcell (Greens)
Assessment
Jordan will probably remain in Labor hands.
2015 election result
| Party | % |
| Labor | 53.1 |
| Liberal National | 30.5 |
| Greens | 7.8 |
| One Nation | 3.6 |
| Family First | 2.9 |
| Katter’s Australian Party | 0.8 |
| Palmer United Party | 0.8 |
| Independents | 0.4 |
2015 two-party-preferred result
| Party | % |
| Labor | 63.5 |
| Liberal National | 36.5 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Jordan have been divided into three areas: central, north and south.
The ALP won a large majority of the two-party-preferred vote in two areas, polling 63% in the centre and 73% in the north. The LNP polled 76% in the south.
| Voter group | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Central | 63.0 | 9,265 | 35.1 |
| South | 23.6 | 5,597 | 21.2 |
| North | 72.9 | 4,549 | 17.2 |
| Other votes | 55.2 | 6,971 | 26.4 |
Two-party-preferred votes in Jordan at the 2015 QLD state election
New LNP candidate in this seat, Dr Duncan Murray.
With Labor running solo in this seat for a very long time, they should win this seat with ease.
There is a independent who seems to be running a big campaign. If labor primary drops to around 40% perhaps could gian the seat with LNP preferences.
@WA if there’s even a chance Labor could lose this seat they’re surely getting wiped out?
Not necessarily. Check out Baldivis in WA earlier this year: new seat in the outer suburbs (just like this one), on paper safe enough for Labor that the Libs didn’t try hard, but a local councillor did and actually got close-ish. (That, in an election Labor won by miles.) Sometimes weird things happen. If that indie is an Ipswich councillor for whatever ward Springfield’s in, they could be worth a flutter.
@BoP
No Ipswich councillor is running but the ones in this area are independents (ie. non-Labor party members) which could give an independent a chance in Jordan.
The Labor candidate has been preselected for ages, perhaps a year. Was definitely one of their first new candidates (if not the first) preselected. Probably will win.
independent running is Phil Cutcliffe.
http://www.couriermail.com.au/questnews/southwest/springfield-pastor-phil-cutcliffe-swaps-pews-for-politics-ahead-of-queensland-state-election/news-story/4f8c733509de92c692c51cc87eb8d556
ALP retain
QT article this week that has Jordan too close to call. Independent seems to be really gaining some traction. As a local, I have not heard of anyone who has voted LNP or ALP, everyone is talking Steve Hodgson or Phil Cutcliffe.
If Labo don’t win this with that margin, they’re not winning back gov. Labor retain.