LNP 0.9%
Incumbent MP
Andrew Powell, since 2009.
Geography
South-East Queensland. Glass House includes parts of Moreton Bay and Sunshine Coast council areas. It stretches from near Caboolture, as well as Elimbah, Beerburrum, Glass House Mountains, Eudlo, Palmwoods, Maleny, Woodford, Mount Mee and Conondale.
Redistribution
Glass House underwent some minor changes – losing an area near Caboolture to Pumicestone, while gaining areas south of Mount Mee from Pine Rivers and Morayfield. Glass House also gained the westernmost part of Nicklin on its northern border, and gained Mooloolah Valley from Caloundra. Finally Glass House lost its north-eastern corner to Nicklin. These changes cut the LNP margin from 1.4% to 0.9%.
History
The seat of Glass House has existed in its current form since 2001, although a seat with the same name existed from 1986 to 1992.
Carolyn Male first won the seat for the ALP in 2001. She was re-elected in 2004 and 2006, but the redistribution before the 2009 election made Glass House much harder for the ALP to win. Male instead ran in the new seat of Pine Rivers, and won that seat.
Glass House was won in 2009 by the LNP’s Andrew Powell. Powell was re-elected in 2012 and 2015.
Candidates
- Tracey Bell-Henselin (One Nation)
- Andrew Powell (Liberal National)
- Sue Mureau (Independent)
- Brent Hampstead (Labor)
- Sue Weber (Greens)
Assessment
Glass House is a very marginal seat. If Labor can gain this seat it will strengthen their hold on government.
2015 election result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Andrew Powell | Liberal National | 13,727 | 43.7 | -12.1 | 43.9 |
| Brent Hampstead | Labor | 9,587 | 30.5 | +12.9 | 30.9 |
| David Knobel | Greens | 4,511 | 14.4 | -1.3 | 14.2 |
| Scott Higgins | Palmer United Party | 3,570 | 11.4 | +11.4 | 10.2 |
| Others | 0.7 | ||||
| Family First | 0.1 | ||||
| Informal | 700 | 2.2 |
2015 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Andrew Powell | Liberal National | 14,890 | 51.4 | -19.0 | 50.9 |
| Brent Hampstead | Labor | 14,074 | 48.6 | +19.0 | 49.1 |
| Exhausted | 2,431 | 7.7 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Glass House have been divided into three areas: central, north and south.
The LNP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in two out of three of these areas, polling 54% in the north and 52% in the centre, while Labor polled 50.4% in the south.
The Greens vote ranged from 9.7% in the south to 23% in the north, while the Palmer United vote ranged from 8% in the north to 11% in the centre and south.
| Voter group | PUP prim % | GRN prim % | LNP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| North | 8.2 | 23.1 | 54.0 | 6,647 | 26.4 |
| South | 11.1 | 9.7 | 49.6 | 6,123 | 24.4 |
| Central | 10.8 | 13.0 | 52.2 | 3,098 | 12.3 |
| Other votes | 10.7 | 11.2 | 50.7 | 9,268 | 36.9 |
Two-party-preferred in Glass House at the 2015 QLD state election
Wish I lived in the Glass House electorate.
Met Tracey for the first time – knew nothing about her prior or the politics.
An awesome human being.
There’s some great seat betting odds on Sportsbet for individual Qld seats, some where they clearly have no clue but this one might take the cake. To have Labor as favourites for this seat is laughable, it’s almost as laughable as having LNP at 6 bucks in Townsville. Wish you could multi bet on seats as a fortune could be won but only allows individual bets. If Labor couldn’t ewin Glass House during the anti-Newman swing, they won’t while in government.
Labor would have won the old boundaries under compulsory preferencing though, and these boundaries are slightly better. Maybe the odds are slightly wrong, but I don’t think they are far wrong.
BEnee
I can not see how ALP would have won GLasshouse under compulsory preferencing.
All minor parties encouraged preferencing. IT was only LNP and aLP that advocated a just vote 1.
IF ALP had got every single vote that was exhausted then they would have had a vote of 12558 vs LNP vote of 31665.
ONly 2701 votes were exhausted and not allocated to a major Party in 2PPV.
How could ALP have won?
I don’t know where you got those numbers from Andrew. In Ben Raue’s breakdown above it says 2PP Liberal National 14,890 votes vs Labor 14,074 with 2,431 exhausted, easily enough to flip the result.
> If Labor couldn’t ewin Glass House during the anti-Newman swing, they won’t while in government.
This is faulty reasoning. You make it sound like 2015 was a landslide when it was nothing of the sort. It was a hung parliament! Labor needs only a slight lift in its vote to pick up marginals like Glass House.
@ David Walsh I do get what you’re saying but you have to remember Labor were a basket case 2012 – 7 members and they won heaps of seats with a big swing to them 3 years later. I just can’t see them having a swing to them in government. Hope I’m wrong, Beattie did manage it 01.
Not that long shin When I raised the Adani matter with Mr Powell his reply was that we would have to agree to disagree.Both parties support the destruction of heartland
Too close to call, one of the last seats to be decided possibly. I have LNP very slightly in front but the preferences here will be a nightmare. One Nation are not out of this one.
One Nation have been campaigning here very hard and their candidate, is a one nation policy spokesperson and such is quite high profile and has had alot of visits from Pauline
WA Party .. If One Nation (sic) are a chance here, where are their votes coming from? Even if all the Palmer votes went to them, that’s only 11%
This wil come down to a battle of preference flows from ONP and the Greens. I expect the LNP will hold it though.
LNP retain
I’ve chalked this up as one of Labor’s only two gains from the LNP, the other being Whitsunday.
I should add I am shocked the LNP didn’t shift Powell into Buderim as a future senior minister.
Are One Nation (sic) preferencing against sitting member??
Pretty sure the ONP are preferencing against sitting members in every seat they’re running in.
Morgieb … that’s what they said but I file anything said by One Nation (sic) under “believe it when I see it”