LNP 2.0%
Incumbent MP
Tim Mander, since 2012.
Geography
Northern fringe of Brisbane. The seat straddles the border between the City of Brisbane and Moreton Bay Regional Council. The seat covers the suburbs of Oxford Park, Everton Hills, Albany Hill and parts of Mitchelton, Bunya, Brendale and Arana Hills.
Redistribution
Minor changes were made to Everton’s boundaries on four sides, with Aspley, Stafford, Ferny Grove and Glass House. These changes increased the LNP margin from 1.8% to 2.0%.
History
Everton has existed since the 1972 election. The ALP held the seat continuously from 1977 to 2012.
Gerry Jones won the seat for the ALP at the 1972 election. He lost the seat in a massive landslide to Joh Bjelke-Petersen’s National-Liberal government in 1974. Jones went on to serve in the Senate from 1980 to 1996.
In 1974 the seat was won by the Liberal Party’s Brian Lindsay. He served for one term before losing in 1977 to the Labor Party’s Glen Milliner.
Milliner held the seat from 1977 to 1992. Milliner became a minister in the Goss Labor government in 1989. In 1992 he moved to the new seat of Ferny Grove, and was succeeded by Rod Selford in Everton.
Selford had been first elected in the seat of Stafford in 1989 before moving to Everton in 1992. Welford joined the ministry when Peter Beattie became Premier in 1998. He served as a minister for eleven years, until he retired in 2009.
Welford was succeeded in 2009 by Murray Watt, who had previously served as Chief of Staff to Anna Bligh.
In 2012, Watt was defeated by LNP candidate Tim Mander. Mander was re-elected in 2015.
Candidates
- Tim Mander (Liberal National)
- Bridget Clinch (Greens)
- David Greene (Labor)
Assessment
Everton is a marginal LNP seat.
2015 election result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Tim Mander | Liberal National | 14,601 | 49.3 | -8.2 | 50.1 |
| Jeff Frew | Labor | 11,910 | 40.2 | +9.1 | 39.5 |
| Aidan Norrie | Greens | 3,084 | 10.4 | +3.2 | 9.8 |
| Others | 0.3 | ||||
| Palmer United Party | 0.2 | ||||
| Informal | 508 | 1.7 |
2015 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Tim Mander | Liberal National | 14,965 | 51.8 | -11.4 | 52.0 |
| Jeff Frew | Labor | 13,944 | 48.2 | +11.4 | 48.0 |
| Exhausted | 686 | 2.3 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Everton have been divided into three areas: central, north and south.
The LNP won over 50% of the two-party-preferred vote in two areas, polling 53% in the centre and 55% in the north. Labor won 56% in the south.
The Greens came third, with a vote ranging from 8% in the north to 13% in the south.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | LNP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| North | 8.4 | 55.4 | 12,076 | 34.8 |
| Central | 10.6 | 53.4 | 8,201 | 23.6 |
| South | 12.8 | 43.9 | 3,440 | 9.9 |
| Other votes | 9.9 | 52.0 | 10,973 | 31.6 |
Election results in Everton at the 2015 QLD state election
Click on the ‘visible layers’ box to toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.
Any view on how the compulsory preferences will effect these close seats?
The implied margin would be closer to 1% LNP than 2% LNP in my opinion.
no one nation candidate……worth identifying which seats onp does not run a candidate in
seems to be in Brisbane and some of the gold coast……. why?
http://the-pen.co/is-one-ntion-smart-or-stupid/
Probably because ONP don’t tend to poll very well in the inner Brisbane seats. I imagine they’ll do quite well around Ipswich and Caboolture, but seats in the inner/middle distance suburbs would likely have been very poor for them.
Margin 2% with 2% exhausting…… which would be green votes…….now onp did not stand why? to help the liberals remember they said they would put all sitting members last…. now if you don’t stand you don’t need to do that……..onp wants a liberal govt?????
The demographics of Everton are not the type that favour ONP. They would probably poll quite poorly, to the point where their preferences would have minimal impact.
Presumably they’re saving money/time/effort by not standing in seats where they will be lucky to get their deposit back.
Or they just didn’t get a candidate. They are standing in some inner Brisbane seats and it appears random which means ones.
For a relatively small party standing candidates requires an infrastructure for recruitment & funding – ONP have done reasonably well to stand as many candidates as they have – question will be how substantial their “ground game” is in terms of having people at the local level to distribute information and man polling booths and prepolls.
FRom viewing activity on OLd Northern RD, South PIne RD / STafford RD intersection this morning it is clear that Major parties think this seat is in play,.
TIm Mander himselfd standing on roadway waving. NOt many candfidates do this and even fewer front benchers. SO he must be orried. This surprises me as I would have though any sitting member with only Green and ALP opponents would not have much to worry about.
Both ALP and L:NP had humans looking after the A frame signs. Once again a ssign the seat is in paly.
There ere the odd Green and One Nation generic Corflutes up odd considering that Ashby Hanson Party not standing in Everton. I guess it is amain arterial rd justifies corflute placement.
I think Mander will retain his seat with approx. same vote as last time and ALP vote will be split between ALP and Greens. in 2015 Mander was given a clear run by conservative minors such as FF. HE has kept a low profile and comes across as plausible. He is the only LNP member I have heard to criticize the mistakes of the Newman government.
LNP retain.