Buderim – QLD 2017

LNP 11.8%

Incumbent MP
Steve Dickson (ON), since 2009. Previously Member for Kawana 2006-2009.

Geography
Sunshine Coast. Buderim covers the central Sunshine Coast suburbs of Buderim, Mountain Creek, Sippy Downs, Kuluin, Rosemount and Diddillibah.

Redistribution
Buderim shifted south, losing Kunda Park to Ninderry, and gaining Sippy Downs from Kawana. These changes cut the LNP margin from 12.2% to 11.8%.


History
The seat of Buderim was created at the 2009 state election, taking in parts of Kawana and Maroochydore.

The seat of Kawana had been created at the 2001 election, and was held from 2001 to 2006 by Chris Cummins of the ALP, who defeating the sitting Liberal MP for Mooloolah in 2001.

Cummins was defeated in 2006 by Liberal candidate Steve Dickson.

In 2009, Dickson moved to the new seat of Buderim, and was re-elected in 2012 and 2015.

Dickson resigned from the Liberal National Party in January 2017 due to a disagreement over medicinal cannabis and joined One Nation as their sole state MP.

Candidates

Assessment
Buderim on paper is not a particularly strong seat for One Nation – the seat was ranked 59th out of 93 in terms of the One Nation Senate vote in 2016. Presumably the sitting member will have a personal vote which will give him a chance of winning re-election but it won’t be easy. The Liberal National Party will be eager to take back this seat.

2015 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Steve Dickson Liberal National 15,297 52.6 -9.6 52.3
Elaine Hughes Labor 6,627 22.8 +6.6 23.5
Tess Lazarus Palmer United Party 3,781 13.0 +13.0 12.7
Sue Etheridge Greens 3,366 11.6 +0.9 10.9
Others 0.5
Informal 625 2.1

2015 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Steve Dickson Liberal National 16,353 62.2 -13.9 61.8
Elaine Hughes Labor 9,954 37.8 +13.9 38.2
Exhausted 2,764 9.5

Booth breakdown

Booths in Buderim have been divided into three areas: east, north and west.

The LNP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 57.4% in the east to 64.6% in the north.

The Palmer United Party primary vote ranged from 11.8% in the west to 15.5% in the east, while the Greens primary vote ranged from 11% in the north to 12.3% in the west.

Voter group PUP prim % GRN prim % LNP 2PP % Total votes % of votes
West 11.8 12.3 61.5 8,963 38.4
East 15.5 11.4 57.4 3,741 13.8
North 12.2 11.0 64.6 2,896 10.7
Other votes 12.8 9.7 62.9 11,473 42.4

Election results in Buderim at the 2015 QLD state election
Click on the ‘visible layers’ box to toggle between two-party-preferred votes, Palmer United Party primary votes and Greens primary votes.

28 COMMENTS

  1. I know a lot about this electorate having lived it for quite sometime up until recently. Steve Dickson cannot win this seat, it was blue ribbon LNP. The local paper there has conducted a couple of polls which has Dickson losing on both the primary and 2PP to the LNP. The MSM is doing a terrible job with this seat. If a Labor or LNP leader was in danger of losing their seat, it would be on the news every night.

  2. The interesting question for me is not can Steve Dickson win, but can he manage second?

    My Senate four-party-preferred analysis for Buderim suggests the starting point is LNP about 50%, Labor low 20s, PHON and Green low-mid 10s. Basically, PHON is swapping in for PUP (and it wouldn’t surprise me if it’s the exact same voters).

    Assume Steve Dickson can – somehow – acquire 10% personal vote at the expense of the LNP (otherwise they’ll just fall over the line very easily indeed). That still only gets him roughly level with Labor on primary vote.

    Greens voters will overwhelmingly preference Labor, which should be enough to put Labor to about 30% on three candidate preferred. The remainder of the Green preferences will likely go LNP over PHON.

    End result something in the territory of a 60:40 LNP:ALP split like normal.

  3. I feel that Dickson can’t win this seat even if PHON really has a swing come its way. He presumably should get the PUP votes and a chunk off the Libs and Labor. That puts him close to second but not assured, and even if he came second Labor and Green preferences would seal the deal for the Libs.

  4. Steve Dickson really needs a miracle to hold the seat, however, i have heard that the local population is really getting around Steve because he is promoting a new One Nation that would steal a lot more votes from the LNP then people think.

  5. This seat is crazy. For example, if the Greens campaigned strongly on Adani, corruption, and local issues, they might be able to overtake Labor. The combined Greens and Labor vote can overtake one of the right wing parties, and take out the win with preference leakage. That’s unlikely to happen, but the dynamics of the seat don’t rule it out.

    Predicting an LNP victory with Labor 2nd on 2PP, but looking forward to the preference distribution.

  6. This seat is crazy. For example, if the Greens campaigned strongly on Adani, corruption, and local issues, they might be able to overtake Labor. The combined Greens and Labor vote can overtake one of the right wing parties, and take out the win with preference leakage.

    I’d like to know what you’re basing this on, as I see no evidence to support either assertion. As far as I can see, Buderim is just a run-of-the-mill safe LNP seat.

  7. It would be safe LNP if the incumbent wasn’t a PHON defector. The gap between the Greens and Labor can be quite small in the Sunshine Coast and surrounds (eg Noosa where Greens beat Labor). I expect PHON to beat both left leaning parties but not their combined vote. It would then be a question of how the PHON voters feel about the LNP; if WA and 2016 Federal are any guide they aren’t reliably going to go the LNP. It will depend on what Dickson’s campaign looks like.

    Overall prediction is a Liberal “marginal” victory.

  8. Just spotted a Very Large “Stick with Steve” Banner on the fence of a business on Eastern side of Bruce Highway at Forest Glen or Mons. Sign is high on a bank faces West so will not get much attention. Only reason to place sign in this spot with this aspect is that it can not be placed elsewhere. It in effect is visible only to those who do not live in electorate. Majority of Buderim residential traffic will be South of Banner or heading to coast. In fact it is one of the worst sited signs I have seen. Too high for good visibility from highway. I am not sure how the Ashby-Hanson mob will do at election but I agree with Feel the Bern that Buderim is is not a ON seat. Electorate are vey conservative but they are predominantly upper class retirees. They would be more at home in the Home Counties of England. They would be happy to attend the Hunt Bal but would probably not be hunters themselves. Dickson made a very big mistake jumping ship and not jumping electorates. Looking at the surrounding electorates I suspect that every one of them will have a higher potential ON vote than Buderim. Dickson should have insisted on a safer seat before jumping.

    Neither Hanson or Ashby would be welcome in the electorate whilst in adjoining electorates Hanson herself might be a magnet. However I can not see Buderim would be David Horton’s or Audrey Forbes-Hamilton’s flocking to crass Pauline Hanson.

    Horses for courses she is more at home in ALP seats than Blue Ribbon Liberal seats..

    Like Feel The Bern I lived in the electorate (30 Years ago) and have connections with the seat. I doubt if Dickson can even man his booths without bringing in busloads from elsewhere. Unlike Clive Palmer he probably does not have the money to pay his workers or he would have sited his banner more appropriately.

    ANdrew Jackson
    apjackson@hotkey.net.au

  9. Andrew, I disagree and know Steve is a very good politician and representative of his electorate. He is in fact there today with Pauline listening to their concerns. Gone are the days where people say “He left LNP so I won’t vote for him now”. If he has been recognised to have done a great job and listens to the people they will vote him back in.

    He left the LNP because they were losing their values and direction, I know you won’t agree with me because you seem to lean in the LNP direction a fair bit.

    Times are changing and I think PHON will pick up more seats then you have been discussing in your posts. It will be an interesting election though and I know a lot of people will be watching the outcome.

  10. Shaun
    Labelling me as LNP is unfair. I do not think Wyatt ROy would agree with you.

    MY political position iS RELATIVELY EASY TO FIND OUT

    1972 DLP Candidate MOreton (Preferencing LIberal)
    1974 DLP Candidate Yeronga (Preferencing LIberal)
    1974 DLP QUeensland SEnate Candidate
    2010 DLP Candidate LOngman (preferencing ALP)

    2007-2011 President or Secretary DLP Queensland
    2012-2017 Volunteer. SEcretary or VIce President Katter’s AUstralian Party
    2017 Queensland CHairman AUstralian Country.

    Of course LNP have lost their values and direction but voters will not find these values in PHON. Respect for the individual is not found in a Lynch mob.

    voters however will find them in the AUstralian Country Party and in Katter or DLP when they have candidates standing.

    I have no knowledge of Steve Dickson other than that hew was remarkably silent during the regime of NEwman about LNP values. LIke all LNP candidates in 2012 he went to election promising to repeal CIvil Unions legislation and that no public servant need fear for their job. He voted to repeal CIvil UNion legislation when BIll was put up by LNP in early 2012? and then voted against the identical Bill when it was put up by Robbie Katter (2013?). Please tell me how this is standing up for any values let alone traditional values.

    I am certainly not LNP in outlook I support Government intervention in the economy for the good of society I support traditional values even when it is electorally disadvantageous. I support the regulation of electricity and banking. In effect I am cross between traditional Labor and traditional COuntry Party but don’t tar me with the brush liberal or LIberal or LNP in any way. I regard PHON as an aberration that decent society can not tolerate something akin to the AUstralian Green’s or the Communist Party.

    Andrew Jackson
    apjackson@hotkey.net./au

  11. I went through most of NOrthern half of Buderim electorate yesterday as the result of Buderim Garden CLub EXpo.

    LNP’s BRent MIckelberg has covered electorate with both standard Corflutes and Triple size corflutes attached to pre-prepared pine stands

    STeve DIckson has an additional “I am stocking with STeve” sign on MOns Rd. MUch better siting than one on highway.

    Absolutely no sign that ALP candidate exists. Assuming ALP only get half what they got last time (Somehow I think this is unlikely) THis 19% of vote will win for LNP. FOr AShby -Hanson candidate to win LNpo will need to get less than 32% . ONce again very unlikely.

    I am confident that I can predict that Dickson’s term in parliament is coming to an end.

    IN effect iit is evidence of Major political parties picking candidates who do not know their electorates.

    Andrew Jackson
    apjackson@hotkey.net.au

  13. Benee

    I have no idea what the BY Laws of the Sunshine Coast council are. Before I said signs were illegal I would need to do some homework. Local Council Rangers can deal with matter if someone complains.

    Illegality is very rarely an issue in election campaigning. It is normally what level of illegality that the candidate thinks he can get away with.

    IN my time as political candidate I have known only one candidate toi be prosecuted re election signage. A Katter candidate was prosecuted by a Brisbane Valley Council and the first the candidate knew about it was when SPER cancelled his driving license.

    I raised election signage with my local councilor at a Neighborhood Watch meeting a few nights ago and in effect was told that the BY Laws were unenforceable because one political party was taking the Council to court over matter.

    I noticed that one of the swigns that I thought were illegal inm MOretion REgion from LNP candidate Kara THOPmas was either blown over in the rain or was aassisted by a political opponent. Tennis COUrts at corner of Uhlman & BUckley RDs now only has one over large LNP sign om Footpath..

  14. Dickson is a goner here, and polling specifically by Sunshine Coast media outlets shows it. Probably the biggest own goal ever kicked. A wet blanket could win this seat for the LNP but he chose to shift party and contest a seat that doesn’t have great demographics for One Nation. He’d have had a chance in some other Sunshine Coast seats but not this blue ribbon Liberal seat.

  15. The only way Dickson will be saved is if he finishes first of first preference votes, and the combined labor green vote moves them into first place, causing the LNP to drop to third in which a leakage of LNP preferences could re-elect Steve.

  18. LNP are preferencing Labor above PHON in Buderim, so for Dickson to win, not only does the circumstance Young Nation talked about need to happen, but The Greens (who LNP have put last) need to beat Labor (who they put above PHON).

    Dickson’s gone

  19. FEel the BERn
    Can we have the Sunshine Coast Daily poll figures. See my comment above 20 th September which effectively predicted the Sunshine Coast Daily results. MY gut feeling is that Buderim voters will wipe Dickson out. It showed a MP who was so out of touch with his electorate or one whose principles were out of touch with LNP.

    Every tome I see the vicar of Dibley I am reminded of Buderim and I can not see one character in VIcar of Dibley voting One Nation. NOt even David Horton.

    It surprised me that Dickson was so out of touch because I have visited Buderim maybe 5 times in last 2 1/2 YRs and on most occasion I saw him on a stall. Maybe Politicians need to hone their listening skills and spend less time talking. That goes for those I support as well as those who I oppose.

  20. There was an article over the weekend that showed high support for One Nation in Glasshouse, Ninderry and Caloundra and suggested One Nation could at a stretch win those but said figures showed Steve Dickson was a goner in Buderim. I’ll try find it.

  21. Beware of transposing the surrounding electorates onto Buderim. The seat is an island of wealthy retirees (a mixture of Epsom & Ewell (UK) Karen HEights (Kenya) and , Clayfield .This contrasts with electorates lower down the hill with much more youthful populations (with a mixture of Murrumba and Bulimba) and those areas further inland with farmers business types and latte sipping ex hippies (ie a mixture between Maranoa and West End) In effect each of these seats \need to be polled individually for results to be with the paper they are printed on.

    My prediction LNP win in all three. However One Nation vote will nbe lowest in Buderim. My prediction is that we will know Dickson has lost his seat within 2 Hours of poll closing.
    Andrew Jackson
    apjackson@hotkey.net.au

  23. Two internal polls commissioned by the lnp I’ve had privilege of seeing, both have Dickson gone, in fact the Galaxy poll has him in third behind Labor.

  24. I got to see some internal polling on this seat that was released to the LNP last night, it was two different companies that did, both had Steve Dickson gone but the Galaxy Poll actually had Steve Dickson third on the primary behind Labor.

  25. This could also be a seat in which when polling people don’t say they are voting for One Nation because they will be called a racist etc. So there vote could be underestimated

  28. I was wrong. It did not take two hours from closing of Poll to know that the residents of Buderim have dispatched Dickson. We knew in 51 Minutes.

    Dickson either showed great commitment to the Ashby-Hanson discordance or a great deal of lack of understanding of his electorate.

    This discordance remains a threat to free Australia and now needs to be crushed. However the underlying economic problems that caused 12/ 13% of electorate to desert middle of the road parties and head for the hills must be addressed.

    We need a return to the moderate economic policy of the 1901-1972. We need to reintroduce Tariff Protection, Centralized the marketing of Agricultural Produce, End the anarchy of neo-liberal industrial relations by reintroducing centralized wage along with the Penal provisions. Commonwealth government needs top re-introduce Sedition laws that will jail any person spreading “Discordance amongst Australian citizens.” and most important of all re-regulate economy to deal with market failure. The electricity industry is not competitive and for that matter neither is retail, telephone, petrol or banking.

    Thank you Buderim for returning to the Centre whilst large sections of Queensland behave like a centrifuge.

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