LNP 2.2%
Incumbent MP
Bonney is a new seat.
Geography
Gold Coast. Bonney covers the suburbs of Arundel, Labrador and Biggera Waters.
Redistribution
Bonney is a new seat, created out of parts of Southport, Broadwater, Coomera and Gaven. A majority of the seat’s population was previously contained in Southport, with the remainder coming from Broadwater. A small unpopulated error at the western end of the seat was previously contained in Coomera and Gaven.
History
The population of Bonney was previously contained in Broadwater and Southport.
Broadwater was created in 1992. The seat was held by the Nationals’ Allan Grice. Grice was defeated by Labor’s Peta-Kaye Croft in 2001. Croft was defeated by LNP candidate Verity Barton in 2012, and Barton was re-elected in 2015.
Southport was created in 1977. The seat was won by the Liberal Party’s Peter White, in 1977, and he was succeeded in 1980 by the National Party’s Doug Jennings. Jennings was succeeded by fellow Nationals MP Mick Veivers.
Labor’s Peter Lawlor defeated Veivers in 2001. He held the seat until 2012, when he lost to the LNP’s Rob Molhoek, who was re-elected in 2015.
Candidates
- Sam O’Connor (Liberal National)
- Ron Nightingale (Independent)
- Rowan Holzberger (Labor)
- Amin Javanmard (Greens)
- Robert Buegge (Independent)
Assessment
On paper, Bonney is a marginal LNP seat.
2015 election result
| Party | % |
| Liberal National | 44.5 |
| Labor | 34.9 |
| Greens | 8.7 |
| Palmer United Party | 7.5 |
| Independents | 1.7 |
| Family First | 1.4 |
| One Nation | 1.3 |
2015 two-party-preferred result
| Party | % |
| Liberal National | 52.2 |
| Labor | 47.8 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Bonney have been split into east and west.
The LNP won 53% of the two-party-preferred vote in the west, while Labor polled 56.3% in the east. The LNP easily won the special votes, with 58%.
| Voter group | LNP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| West | 53.1 | 7,469 | 28.5 |
| East | 43.7 | 7,320 | 27.9 |
| Other votes | 58.1 | 11,442 | 43.6 |
Two-party-preferred in Bonney at the 2015 QLD state election
Hi guys – big fan of your work! I’ve been following it for a while.
The correct link to my page is https://greens.org.au/candidates/qld/bonney
I must admit I was a little surprised that a seat based on Southport and Labrador would have an LNP majority.
Might be a bit of a dark horse for Labor? It contains their best Gold Coast areas all in one seat, and is probably their only realistic target in the area, so they’d be putting a strong effort in here.
A further One Nation Defection in Bonney. According to todays THE Australian Ashby-Hanson discordance campaigner Ron Nightingale quit the party to stand as an Independent..
Might have something to do with Nightingale’s support for Spit development and PH having no position till she sees how it plays out with electorate.
Nightingale has been campaigning on Coast since 19 October at least and is having problems with Major Parties over his signage. Arguments over illegal signage both alleged illegal major party signage and alleged illegal Nightingale signage.
Claims that Gold Coast Bulletin gives him a 25% vote. Seems to think that combining his personal vote with ON gives him this figure.
Unfortunately fire wall prevented me looking at Gold Coasty Bulletin poll results so am basing these comments on Nightingale’s assessment.
no onp
How do we know where the Independents will be giving their preferences? I’ve read that Greens are giving them to Labour but what about the other two??
Independents generally don’t tend to hand out How To Vote cards.
Independent Robert Buegge has a HTV and is preferencing Labor ahead of the LNP.
Ron isn’t doing HTV’s. Robert has been at pre Poll with volunteers everyday handing out.
LNP retain and a big reason why I think Labor falls short of a majority. If they were headed for government again I feel they’d win this as they are doing pretty good on the Gold Coast apparently. Seat polling on this though consistently has LNP just in front on the 2PP. One to watch though.
Feel the Bern is spot on. I’m hearing from the LNP on the ground that they’ll hold this, just.
Labor is apparently doing better in Gaven.
I expect a small swing to LNP here so even if the nargin is overestimated they will win.