ALP 3.6%
Incumbent MP
Craig Crawford, since 2015.
Geography
Far North Queensland. Barron River covers the northern suburbs of Cairns, including Smithfield, Redlynch and Kuranda. Most of the electorate lies in the Cairns local government area, with small parts contained in Douglas Shire.
Redistribution
Barron River contracted from both directions, losing Aeroglen, Brinsmead and Whitfield to Cairns at the southern border, and losing a small area at the northern border to Cook. These changes increased the Labor margin from 3.1% to 3.6%.
History
The electorate of Barron River was first created for the 1972 election. At most elections this seat has been won by one of the parties who won the election.
Bill Wood won the seat for the ALP in 1972. He had previously sat as Member for Cook since 1969. He lost Barron River in 1974. He later served as a member of the ACT Legislative Assembly from 1989 to 2004.
Martin Tenni won Barron River for the National Party in 1974. He held the seat until 1989, when the seat was won by Lesley Clark of the ALP, as part of the Labor Party’s return to government after decades of conservative rule.
Clark lost to Lyn Warwick of the Liberal Party in 1995 before returning to the seat in 1998. She retired in 2006.
Steve Wettenhall was elected for the ALP in 2006. He was re-elected in 2009, and served as a parliamentary secretary from 2009 to 2012.
In 2012, LNP candidate Michael Trout defeated Wettenhall. Trout was felled in 2015 by Labor candidate Craig Crawford.
Candidates
- Michael Trout (Liberal National)
- Andrew Hodgetts (Independent)
- Cameron Boyd (Greens)
- Craig Crawford (Labor)
- Cheryl Tonkin (Independent)
- Andrew Schebella (One Nation)
Assessment
Barron River is a marginal Labor seat and will be in play in the upcoming election.
2015 election result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Michael Trout | Liberal National | 13,866 | 41.6 | -4.1 | 41.4 |
| Craig Crawford | Labor | 13,138 | 39.4 | +11.6 | 39.3 |
| Noel Castley-Wright | Greens | 3,392 | 10.2 | +1.0 | 10.3 |
| Andrew Schebella | Palmer United Party | 2,937 | 8.8 | +8.8 | 9.0 |
| Informal | 710 | 2.1 |
2015 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Craig Crawford | Labor | 16,764 | 53.1 | +12.6 | 53.6 |
| Michael Trout | Liberal National | 14,794 | 46.9 | -12.6 | 46.4 |
| Exhausted | 1,775 | 5.3 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Barron River have been divided into three areas: centre, north and south.
The ALP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 53.5% in the south to 57.8% in the centre.
The Greens vote ranged from 8.4% in the south to 11.7% in the north.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| North | 11.7 | 55.3 | 9,875 | 35.0 |
| South | 8.4 | 53.5 | 4,606 | 16.3 |
| Central | 11.0 | 57.8 | 3,152 | 11.2 |
| Other votes | 9.5 | 50.0 | 10,604 | 37.6 |
Election results in Barron River at the 2015 QLD state election
Click on the ‘visible layers’ box to toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.
Labor rolling out the pork barrel with an announcement recently for a bypass at Smithfield. It will take *four years* to construct 3.8km of two lane road however. This is amazing, and not in a good way.
For your information parts of the Mareeba shire council are in Barron river also ( Kuranda )
Day 1 prediction – ALP retain
Why do you say that @ NQ View? This usually goes with gov and my early prediction is lnp gov. I like Crawford though
I think he’s been a decent local member, and has helped to deliver some things the LNP previously just promised (including Redlynch bridge duplication, new fire station). I remember Newman saying along the lines of “these things won’t be built (by an LNP gvmt) if you don’t elect an LNP member, and think that was a big factor in the seat changing hands last time. I think Crawford will have a small benefit from this, especially against the same former LNP member who parroted Newman’s line.
You are correct that Barron River has been a bellwether seat since 1972.
From what I gather Trout had a good reputation in the electorate compared to many LNP members. I understand Crawford is also well liked. You would think this is a must winfor the LNP considering the redraw has added Labor seats across the state (new seats plus Mansfield, Burdekin, Mt Ommaney) and ONP will take a couple of LNP seats. If they cant get Barron River they won’t form givernment.
My prediction is the LNP will just limp across the line here. Especially if PHON preferences them as expected. Crawford has been a decent MP, but the PHON factor would be fairly prominent in this seat. They’ll likely take a chunk from both major parties.
@ PRP why would One Nation be a factor in a seat that contains many wealthy environmental types who live on the beaches and very much believe in climate change and protecting the reef? I used to live in this electorate. Port Douglas certainly not a One Nation area and Kuranda is full of greenies that would loathe Pauline. TBH I think LNP will probably win it but I don’t know One Nation would be considering this one of their better seats? They will do good in Mulgrave and Cairns though.
Apologies for posting twice, I didn’t mean to say @ PHON. Sorry.
I tend to agree that this will be a weak One Nation seat but even 4% of the vote could be decisive in terms of preferences here.
Courier Mail today (2/11) saying Barron River is an electorate under threat from One Nation (along with others, including “Glass House” which I thought had been renamed?)
No chance that PHON gets into the top two here. None. Nada. Zilch.
Either ALP will win on Green preferences, or the LNP will win on PHON preferences.
Where is the PHON vote in Barron coming from though? Has the Courier polled anyone? I just find that hard to believe.
Where is the Katter party candidate for Barron River, If Pauline can’t be trusted not to vote with the LNP who else can I vote for. tim Nichols will find one more back paddock to sell, labor aren’t much better, they want a cop hiding behind every tree catching motorist for revenue raising while burglary and car theft are rife.
Insincere grandstanting pollies make my sick
LNP gain by a slim margin. Craig Crawford is a likeable sitting MP and will get some sophomore vote but Labor just aren’t doing well enough north of Brisbane to win marginal and often bellwether seats in regions. Crawford will keep it a contest though.
LNP gain
LNP win, but One Nation preference leakage to make it narrower then it would have been.