Southport – Queensland 2015

LNP 14.72%

Incumbent MP
Rob Molhoek, since 2012.

Geography
Northern Gold Coast. Southport includes the suburbs of Arundel, Parkwood, Ernest, Molendinar, Southport and parts of Ashmore.

History
Southport has existed in its current form since the 1977 election. For most of that time the seat was held by the National Party, and then by Labor from 2001 to 2012, when it was won by the LNP.

The seat was first won in 1977 by Liberal candidate Peter White. He held the seat until resigning in 1980 to run for the 1981 by-election for the federal seat of McPherson. He held McPherson until his retirement in 1990.

Doug Jennings won Southport for the National Country Party in 1980. He had previously been the Liberal MP for the Victorian state seat of Westernport from 1976 to 1979, when he was expelled from his party and then lost his seat at the election. He held Southport until his death in 1987.

Mick Veivers won Southport for the National Party in 1987 after Jennings’ death. He served as a minister in the Borbidge coalition government from 1996 to 1998 and continued to hold his seat until his defeat in the landslide election of 2001.

The ALP’s Peter Lawlor won Southport in 2001 with a swing of almost 14% off the National Party. The former Gold Coast City alderman held the seat for four terms, and served as a minister from 2009 to 2011.

In 2012, Lawlor was defeated by LNP candidate Rob Molhoek.

Candidates

Assessment
Southport has changed hands in the past and was a key marginal seat before the last election. If there is a swing back to Labor, Southport will likely end up being very marginal.

2012 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Rob Molhoek Liberal National 14,890 55.84 +15.44
Peter Lawlor Labor 7,580 28.43 -16.90
Kevin Brown Katter’s Australian 1,987 7.45 +7.45
Stephen Dalton Greens 1,784 6.69 -0.64
Matthew Mackechnie Independent 425 1.59 +1.59

2012 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Rob Molhoek Liberal National 15,645 64.72 +18.2
Peter Lawlor Labor 8,529 35.28 -18.20
Polling places in Southport at the 2012 Queensland state election. Central in yellow, North in blue, South in green. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Southport at the 2012 Queensland state election. Central in yellow, North in blue, South in green. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Southport have been divided into three parts: central, north and south.

The Liberal National Party won a majority of primary votes in all three areas, ranging from 51.8% in central to 59.1% in the north. On a two-party-preferred basis, the LNP’s vote ranged from 60.6% in the centre to 67.3% in the north.

Labor came second, with a vote ranging from 26.9% in the north to 31.7% in the centre.

The Electoral Commission does not publish two-party-preferred figures by polling place, so two-party-preferred figures in the following table and map are estimates.

Voter group LNP prim % ALP prim % LNP 2PP % Total % of votes
North 59.09 26.85 67.27 7,703 28.89
Central 51.77 31.68 60.58 5,382 20.18
South 54.01 29.20 63.49 4,466 16.75
Other votes 56.39 27.46 65.55 9,115 34.18
Estimated two-party-preferred votes in Southport at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Estimated two-party-preferred votes in Southport at the 2012 Queensland state election.

4 COMMENTS

  1. Molhoek will easily win Southport this time round, albeit it with a swing similar to the statewide average. With a 15% buffer though he’ll be fine. He has also been one of the standout first term LNP MPs who would be in line for a promotion in the next Parliament.

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