Pumicestone – Queensland 2015

LNP 12.07%

Incumbent MP
Lisa France, since 2012.

Geography
South-East Queensland. Pumicestone covers parts of Moreton Bay LGA stretching from Bribie Island to Caboolture.

History
The seat of Pumicestone has existed since 2001. The seat was won in 2001 by Carryn Sullivan, who was re-elected in 2004, 2006 and 2009.

In 2012, Sullivan was defeated by LNP candidate Lisa France. France has served as an assistant minister since the 2012 election.

Candidates

  • Rick Williams (Labor)
  • Bevan Collingwood (Independent)
  • Daniel O’Connell (Greens)
  • Denis Johnson (Independent)
  • Lisa France (Liberal National)
  • Blair Verrier (Palmer United)

Assessment
In normal circumstances, Pumicestone is a marginal seat. If there is a general swing back to Labor and the next election is closer than the 2012 election, Pumicestone will be a key seat. Pumicestone is one of the last seats that would fall if there was a sufficient swing to give Labor a majority.

2012 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Lisa France Liberal National 16,340 53.15 +13.05
Carryn Sullivan Labor 9,355 30.43 -17.49
Brandt King Katter’s Australian 3,186 10.36 +10.36
Jenny Fitzgibbon Greens 1,860 6.05 -2.21

2012 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Lisa France Liberal National 17,521 62.07 +17.06
Carryn Sullivan Labor 10,705 37.93 -17.06
Polling places in Pumicestone at the 2012 Queensland state election. Bribie Island in green, Caboolture in orange, Central in blue.
Polling places in Pumicestone at the 2012 Queensland state election. Bribie Island in green, Caboolture in orange, Central in blue.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Pumicestone have been divided into three parts. There is a cluster of booths around the town of Caboolture at the western edge of the electorate, and they have been grouped together. There are also a number of booths on Bribie Island at the eastern end of the electorate. Those booths on the mainland but not near Caboolture have been grouped as “Central”.

The LNP topped the poll in all three areas, ranging from 46.5% in Caboolture to 56-57% on Bribie Island and the centre of the seat.

The ALP and Katter’s Australian Party both performed better in Caboolture. Labor’s vote ranged from 29% in Bribie Island and Central to 32% in Caboolture.

The KAP vote ranged from 8.6% in Bribie Island to 12.4% in Caboolture.

The Electoral Commission does not publish two-party-preferred figures by polling place, so two-party-preferred figures in the following table and map are estimates.

Voter group LNP prim % ALP prim % KAP prim % Total % of votes
Bribie Island 57.40 29.17 8.59 8,991 29.25
Caboolture 46.50 32.33 12.42 6,780 22.06
Central 56.24 28.83 9.91 6,330 20.59
Other votes 51.69 31.42 10.94 8,640 28.11
Estimated two-party-preferred votes in Pumicestone at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Estimated two-party-preferred votes in Pumicestone at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Katter's Australian Party primary votes in Pumicestone at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Katter’s Australian Party primary votes in Pumicestone at the 2012 Queensland state election.

9 COMMENTS

  1. Lisa France is by far one of the most impressive and hardworking first term LNP MPs and likely in line for promotion if the LNP is re-elected. Her Labor opponent ran for Division 1 (which takes in most of this Electorate) at the 2012 Council Elections. Lots of local issues unfolding in Pumicestone such as the draft planning scheme Council is working on and the duplication of the Bribie Island Bridge. These issues are very likely to play a huge factor in the overall result in this seat. Expect the LNP to retain Pumicestone comfortably.

  2. PRP, I’ve been following this seat off and on. Aren’t the issues with the Moreton Bay Council that are angering people, to do with sea levels, inpacting on Lisa France negatively? Isn’t she the one who won’t speak to the people about it or stand up and fight? There were quite a few angry residents on ABC recently having a go at her. Most of whom said they voted for her in 2012.

  3. Well the only reason the issue has come to the front, from what I can see is because Lisa initiated community town forums and has spoken to over 7,000 locals on the issue. The State Government removed the need for climate change to factor into Councils decision making and the impact it would have on sea levels. Council moved a no-confidence motion in Lisa France because Sunshine Coast and Brisbane City still have to factor in climate change to their planning schemes, however Moreton Bay does not. I live quite close to this Electorate and have read up quite a bit about it in local media. Council have copped quite a bit of flack from residents.

  4. The local and state members from Division 1 (Council) and Pumicestone are both tightly grouped LNP right wingers. I think that the Abbott/Newman factor will weight heavily against the LNP, and the Council and State Govt refusing to abolish Unity Water, and not allowing Council de-amalgamation are potentially potent local issues

  6. Whilst labor is behind here, it will raise the prospects of them winning seats like Kalanghur and Murrumba the outer city seats

Comments are closed.