Maryborough – Queensland 2015

LNP 0.31% vs IND

Incumbent MP
Anne Maddern, since 2012.

Geography
Central Queensland. Maryborough covers most of Fraser Coast Regional Council, as well as a small part of Gympie LGA. A majority of the population lives in the Maryborough urban area.

History
The seat of Maryborough has existed continuously since 1865. The seat was dominated by the ALP for most of the twentieth century but has been dominated by independents since 1998.

The ALP had held Maryborough continuously from 1932 until 1971, when the seat was lost to the Liberal Party’s Gilbert Alison.

Alison held the seat until his defeat in 1977 by the ALP’s Brendan Hanson.

Hansen served two terms before losing to Alison, who was now running in 1983 as a National Party candidate.

Alison held the seat for two more terms, serving briefly as a minister in the Cooper government in late 1989 before losing his seat in 1989.

The seat was held from 1989 to 1998 by the ALP’s Bob Dollin.

Dollin lost in 1998 to One Nation’s John Kingston. Kingston quit One Nation in 1999 but managed to win re-election in 2001 as an independent. He retired in 2003 citing poor health.

The 2003 Maryborough by-election was won by another independent candidate, Chris Foley. Foley was re-elected in 2004, 2006 and 2009.

In 2012, Foley was defeated by LNP candidate Anne Maddern.

Candidates

Assessment
The LNP narrowly won this seat in 2012. The LNP should benefit from incumbency, but a general anti-LNP swing could benefit Foley and help him regain his seat.

2012 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Anne Maddern Liberal National 10,745 35.74 +9.97
Chris Foley Independent 9,071 30.17 -17.50
Gordon Dale Katter’s Australian 5,879 19.56 +19.56
Ezra Burtt Labor 3,538 11.77 -11.00
Garry Claridge Greens 830 2.76 -1.02

2012 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Anne Maddern Liberal National 12,228 50.31 +17.14
Chris Foley Independent 12,076 49.69 -17.14
Polling places in Maryborough at the 2012 Queensland state election. Maryborough in orange, North in green, South in blue. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Maryborough at the 2012 Queensland state election. Maryborough in orange, North in green, South in blue. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Maryborough have been divided into three parts. A majority of voters live in the Maryborough area, and these polling places have been grouped together. The remaining booths were split into those north of Maryborough and those south of Maryborough.

The Liberal National Party topped the primary vote in all three areas, ranging from 34.1% in Maryborough to 39% in the north.

Independent MP Chris Foley came second, with a vote ranging from 24.3% in the south to 32.9% in Maryborough.

The Katter’s Australian Party ranged from 17.8% in the north to 25.4% in the south. KAP came second in the south, and third in the other areas.

Labor came fourth, with a vote ranging from 10.8% in the south to 14.6% in the north.

Voter group LNP prim % IND prim % KAP prim % ALP prim % Total % of votes
Maryborough 34.08 32.93 19.85 10.89 13,771 45.81
North 38.95 26.16 17.83 14.62 5,165 17.18
South 36.42 24.27 25.36 10.79 3,679 12.24
Other votes 36.25 30.77 17.35 11.90 7,448 24.77
Liberal National primary votes in Maryborough at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Liberal National primary votes in Maryborough at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Primary votes for independent MP Chris Foley in Maryborough at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Primary votes for independent MP Chris Foley in Maryborough at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Katter's Australian Party primary votes in Maryborough at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Katter’s Australian Party primary votes in Maryborough at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Labor primary votes in Maryborough at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Labor primary votes in Maryborough at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Liberal National primary votes in the Maryborough urban area at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Liberal National primary votes in the Maryborough urban area at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Primary votes for independent MP Chris Foley in the Maryborough urban area at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Primary votes for independent MP Chris Foley in the Maryborough urban area at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Katter's Australian Party primary votes in the Maryborough urban area at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Katter’s Australian Party primary votes in the Maryborough urban area at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Labor primary votes in the Maryborough urban area at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Labor primary votes in the Maryborough urban area at the 2012 Queensland state election.

13 COMMENTS

  2. In madderns favor is the eturn of health services with full time orthopedic surgeons, endoscopy procedures, doubling the dental chairs, refurbishment and of reopening of two closed wards. New palliative e care as well, but the unions have campaigned heavily about the local retirement, entry home switching from the hospital to a charity group and the closure of the pathology lab (work now done in Hervey bay). With Foley back I can’t see how she survives. This seat also has an announced pup candidate.

  3. Are there any previous examples of an independent MP being defeated, then later winning their seat back? It happens every now and then with major parties (Russell Broadbent, Sharryn Jackson and and Bob Baldwin federally spring to mind), but I’ve never heard of an independent or minor party candidate doing it. Foley would be making some history if he won.

  4. George Wise springs to mind, he was first elected as a Protectionist in 1906 but became an independent after the Free Trade merger. He eventually lost his seat but won it back as an independent in 1914. He eventually joined the Nationalist party later on though

  5. Also Frank Purdue, who won the NSW seat of Waratah in 1956, lost it in 1962, and won it back at a by-election in 1964 before losing it for good in 1965. Neither Purdue or Wise is quite analogous though, since neither was ever faced with two major party candidates (Labor did not oppose Wise, and the Liberals did not oppose Purdue).

  7. Good points about independents coming back. The fact that we’re reaching so far back for precedents show how unusual it is.

    Still, you’ve got to rate Foley’s chances as the de facto opposition candidate in a seat with such a small margin.

  8. I’m gonna say Foley is a good chance here. LNP will struggle to get over 35% if Foley retains his vote from last time and the LNP vote collapses

  9. The issue here is not so much the swing against Madden. It is whether Foley, Labor or PUP finish second on first preferences. if Labor’s vote has grown and Foley”s drops significantly it becomes interesting. I would suggest the preference flow from Labor to Foley would be stronger than Foley to Labor. Then there is the strong Katter vote in 2012 – where does that go? Can PUP attract much.

    I don’t think this is the automatic Foley win that some assume. I am not positive at all about who wins this seat. I think it is a real four way lottery.

  10. KAP voters will go independent, the rest will flow to labor. Voters who normally pick Foley and went LNP because of the federal example will probably go back if there is a swing against her. That 11% of labor voters who ditched the party would have gone KAP. This is a seat labor only really has a chance when they are doing really really well. You’d have to think the LNP vote will drop to atleast 30%, Foley will finally get a swing to him after his large margin has been eaten away and PUP will only really do well on the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast, not this type of seat

  11. I’m not as positive about foley’s vote increasing. I think some of his 2012 vote will may go to labor and some may even go to the lnp limiting the impact of the swing away from Maddern. It comes down to how big foleys first preference is and where the katter vote goes.

  12. Yeah…. Foley is Gone no great Loss Though, Lets hope Maddern doesn’t sneak across though, Ughhhh only Maryborough would vote in the LNP, SIGH

  13. Preferences distributed.

    The count at the final elimination was Maddern 36.3% Saunders 32.7% Foley 31% for a two party preferred result of Saunders 51.65% Maddern 48.35%.

    That’s Labor’s 44th seat and surely its most surprising.

Comments are closed.