Kallangur – Queensland 2015

LNP 12.43%

Incumbent MP
Trevor Ruthenberg, since 2012.

Geography
South-East Queensland. Kallangur covers southern parts of Moreton Bay LGA. It covers the suburbs of Petrie, Kallangur, Murrumba Downs, Dakabin, Kurwongbah and parts of Narangba.

History
Kallangur was first created at the 1992 election. It was won in 1992 by Ken Hayward. He had previously held the seat of Caboolture since 1986. He was appointed as a minister in the Goss Labor government in 1991, and served as a minister until the government lost power in 1996.

Hayward retired in 2009, and was succeeded by former union organiser Mary-Anne O’Neill, running for Labor.

In 2012, O’Neill was defeated by the LNP’s Trevor Ruthenberg.

Candidates

Assessment
In normal elections, Kallangur is a marginal seat. Kallangur is one of the final seats Labor would need to win to be put in an election-winning position.

2012 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Trevor Ruthenberg Liberal National 13,983 52.05 +12.63
Mary-Anne O’Neill Labor 7,750 28.85 -18.16
Michael Bates Katter’s Australian 3,005 11.19 +11.19
Rachel Doherty Greens 2,125 7.91 -0.77

2012 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Trevor Ruthenberg Liberal National 15,187 62.43 +17.06
Mary-Anne O’Neill Labor 9,138 37.57 -17.06
Polling places in Kallangur at the 2012 Queensland state election. Kallangur in blue, North in green, South in orange. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Kallangur at the 2012 Queensland state election. Kallangur in blue, North in green, South in orange. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Kallangur have been divided into three parts. Those booths in Kallangur have been grouped together and the remainder of the electorate has been split into north and south.

The LNP topped the poll in all three areas. The LNP did relatively better in the north and south, and Labor did relatively better in Kallangur.

Katter’s Australian Party came third, with 10% in the south and 12% in Kallangur and the north.

The Electoral Commission does not publish two-party-preferred figures by polling place, so two-party-preferred figures in the following table and map are estimates.

Voter group LNP prim % ALP prim % KAP prim % LNP 2PP % Total % of votes
South 55.43 26.32 10.24 65.58 8,565 31.88
Kallangur 47.27 33.29 12.16 57.45 6,702 24.95
North 54.06 25.87 12.21 65.32 4,201 15.64
Other votes 51.33 29.45 10.82 61.66 7,395 27.53
Estimated two-party-preferred votes in Kallangur at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Estimated two-party-preferred votes in Kallangur at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Katter's Australian Party primary votes in Kallangur at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Katter’s Australian Party primary votes in Kallangur at the 2012 Queensland state election.

14 COMMENTS

  2. My local seat, Big Trev has been a very strong grassroots MP and has worked the electorate well. His Labor opponent has been visible since his preselection but I think the LNP will only just hold on here.

  4. Ironically this was the seat to push the LNP to the number 45, and if a uniform swing happens according to todays Newspoll, it could be the one to push labor to 45. Labor would need a lot of work to win this one. Theres not much of KAP vote up for grabs and labor would need a big swing to catch up on the primary vote. Once the LNP starts campaigning hard in this seats its probably a sign that labor are a real shot at taking government. This definitely belongs to the high hanging fruit along with Keppel, Barron River, Mundingburra, Burleigh, Mirani and Pumicestone. Once all focus is in seats like these its really a sign that labor could be back in government

  7. Sportsbet have Labor favourite to win this seat, the highest-margin classic-2PP seat for which this is the case. Is there any actual reason for this or has someone somewhere made a mistake?

  9. Ruthenberg was out personally at Roadside stall in Old Gympie RD tonight at 6.30PM. Of the seats that I travel through on way to work Kallangur shows most activity followed by Morayfield. In Murrumba it needs Tally room to know that LNP are contesting election Two Corflutes on a shaded fence in Deception Bay Rd is not a campaign. In Redcliffe ALP and LNP are both working hard with Corflutes up on fences A Frames on Roads and human activity. In Sandgate ALP a bit ahead in activity and in Nudgee a few corflutes up in Nudgee Rd but not many.

    So far no Candidates forum’s in Brisbane but Chamber of Commerce had one in Gympie last night and there is another one tonight in Gympie. A further candidates forum in Goomboorian Wednesday night and one in Greenbank (Lockyer) on Wednesday night..

  10. So, after looking at the betting pools for the various seats, the lack of discussion about this seat surprises me. Sportsbet has this seat on a knife edge – 1.87 ALP, 1.87 LNP.

    On a related note, I see discussion on how this would be the seat to push ALP up to 45. Kallangur is on a margin of 12.43%. Everton is on a 13.15% margin, and ALP is winning in the betting pools.

  11. Oops, apparently I made a mistake on my tallying when I looked through Sportsbet – I put Everton on Labor’s side, but LNP is leading in the betting pools. So disregard that part of the above comment.

  12. How the heck is “Big Trev” grassroots when his whole engagement strategy consists on standing on Anzac with a sign saying “Toot it’s my birthday”? Keep the tom foolery out of politics and get back to honourable civic duty and policy, as representatives elected by the people.

  13. This seat is in trouble for the LNP. Funnily enough it may swing harder than the surrounding seats.

  14. Ruthenberg was out on Dohle’s Rocks Rd with about 10 A frames but most interestingly 10 or so volunteers. This is the first time in this election where I have seen volunteers from major parties playing a part.

    My prediction is that Kallangur will have a much less severe swing against LNP than adjoining electorates.

    I am not sure why but Ruthenberg seems to be running a much better campaign than in some of adjoining seats.

    Andrew Jackson
    apjackson@hotkey.net.au

Comments are closed.