Hervey Bay – Queensland 2015

LNP 21.72%

Incumbent MP
Ted Sorensen, since 2009.

Geography
Central Queensland. Hervey Bay covers Fraser Island and areas on the eastern shore of Hervey Bay, including Point Vernon, Urraween, Pialba, Scarness, Torquay and Urangan.

History
The seat of Hervey Bay has existed since 1992. The seat has been won by the ALP at all but two elections, with One Nation winning in 1998 and the LNP winning in 2009.

The seat was first won in 1992 by the ALP’s Bill Nunn. He had previously won the seat of Isis off the National Party in 1989.

Nunn was re-elected in 1992 and 1995 before losing in 1998 to One Nation’s David Dalgleish. Dalgleish left One Nation in 1999 to help form the City Country Alliance.

In 2001, Dalgleish was defeated by the ALP’s Andrew McNamara. McNamara was re-elected in 2004 and 2006, but was defeated in 2009 by former Hervey Bay mayor Ted Sorensen, running for the LNP. Sorensen was re-elected in 2012.

Candidates

  • Tony Gubbins (Labor)
  • Jannean Dean (Independent)
  • Lynette Pearsall (Palmer United)
  • Axel Beard (Family First)
  • Kristen Lyons (Greens)
  • Ted Sorensen (Liberal National)

Assessment
Hervey Bay is a reasonably safe LNP seat.

2012 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Ted Sorensen Liberal National 17,668 59.23 +8.87
Bernice Allen Labor 6,325 21.20 -17.45
Isobel Dale Katter’s Australian 3,684 12.35 +12.35
Troy Sullivan Family First 1,124 3.77 +3.77
Glenn Martin Greens 1,029 3.45 -1.02

2012 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Ted Sorensen Liberal National 19,160 71.72 +15.22
Bernice Allen Labor 7,556 28.28 -15.22
Polling places in Hervey Bay at the 2012 Queensland state election. East in green, South in blue, West in orange. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Hervey Bay at the 2012 Queensland state election. East in green, South in blue, West in orange. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Hervey Bay have been divided into three parts. Most of the population is clustered at the northern end of the mainland part of the seat, and these booths are split into ‘east’ and west. Those further south and on Fraser Island have been grouped as ‘south’.

The Liberal National Party won a solid majority of the primary vote in all three areas, ranging from 56.9% in the east to 63.1% in the south. The LNP’s two-party-preferred vote ranged from 70.1% in the east to 77.9% in the south.

Labor came second, with a vote ranging from 14.5% in the south to 22.3% in the east.

The Katter’s Australian Party vote ranged from 12.3% in the west to 15.2% in the south.

The Electoral Commission does not publish two-party-preferred figures by polling place, so two-party-preferred figures in the following table and map are estimates.

Voter group LNP prim % ALP prim % KAP prim % LNP 2PP % Total % of votes
West 58.80 21.96 12.33 71.08 11,312 37.92
East 56.94 22.30 12.57 70.08 8,472 28.40
South 63.13 14.48 15.21 77.90 960 3.22
Other votes 61.49 19.95 11.86 73.40 9,086 30.46
Estimated two-party-preferred votes in Hervey Bay at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Estimated two-party-preferred votes in Hervey Bay at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Katter's Australian Party primary votes in Hervey Bay at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Katter’s Australian Party primary votes in Hervey Bay at the 2012 Queensland state election.

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