Glass House – Queensland 2015

LNP 20.39%

Incumbent MP
Andrew Powell, since 2009.

Geography
South-East Queensland. Glass House includes parts of Moreton Bay and Sunshine Coast council areas. It stretches from the northern outskirts of Caboolture, as well as Elimbah, Beerburrum, Glass House Mountains, Eudlo, Palmwoods, Maleny, Woodford, Mount Mee and Conondale.

History
The seat of Glass House has existed in its current form since 2001, although a seat with the same name existed from 1986 to 1992.

Carolyn Male first won the seat for the ALP in 2001. She was re-elected in 2004 and 2006, but the redistribution before the 2009 election made Glass House much harder for the ALP to win. Male instead ran in the new seat of Pine Rivers, and won that seat.

Glass House was won in 2009 by the LNP’s Andrew Powell. Powell was re-elected in 2012 and has served as Minister for the Environment since the 2012 election.

Candidates

Assessment
Glass House has been won by Labor only when the party is polling highly, and should stay with the LNP in 2015.

2012 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Andrew Powell Liberal National 15,910 55.85 +7.23
Ryan Moore Labor 5,032 17.67 -16.10
Stewart Luke Greens 4,455 15.64 -1.97
Peter Harris Katter’s Australian 3,088 10.84 +10.84

2012 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Andrew Powell Liberal National 17,573 70.39 +14.58
Ryan Moore Labor 7,391 29.61 -14.58
Polling places in Glass House at the 2012 Queensland state election. Central in blue, North in green, South in orange. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Glass House at the 2012 Queensland state election. Central in blue, North in green, South in orange. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Glass House have been split into three parts: central, north and south. The ‘south’ area covers all those booths in the Moreton Bay council area, including booths in Caboolture. The ‘central’ and ‘north’ areas cover booths in the Sunshine Coast council area.

The Liberal National Party won a majority of primary votes in all three areas, with a vote ranging from 54.5% in the north to 57.7% in the centre.

Labor came second, with a vote ranging from 14.1% in the north to 21.3% in the south. The Greens came third, not far behind Labor, with a vote ranging from 10.1% in the south to 22.1% in the north. The Greens outpolled Labor in the north, but in the south the Greens came fourth behind Labor and Katter’s Australian Party.

The KAP candidate came fourth, with a vote ranging from 9.2% in the north to 13% in the south.

The Electoral Commission does not publish two-party-preferred figures by polling place, so two-party-preferred figures in the following table and map are estimates.

Voter group LNP prim % ALP prim % GRN prim % KAP prim % Total % of votes
North 54.54 14.12 22.13 9.21 8,406 29.51
South 55.55 21.31 10.13 13.02 8,148 28.60
Central 57.65 16.36 15.53 10.46 4,725 16.59
Other votes 56.55 18.54 14.38 10.53 7,206 25.30
Estimated two-party-preferred votes in Glass House at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Estimated two-party-preferred votes in Glass House at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Greens primary votes in Glass House at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Greens primary votes in Glass House at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Katter's Australian Party primary votes in Glass House at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Katter’s Australian Party primary votes in Glass House at the 2012 Queensland state election.

2 COMMENTS

  1. It will be interesting to see how well The Greens will do here in 2015. Seems to be quite a strong seat for them.

    LNP retain no less but the margin will be normalised.

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