Dalrymple – Queensland 2015

KAP 15.22% vs LNP

Incumbent MP
Shane Knuth, since 2009.

Geography
Far North Queensland. Dalyrmple covers areas west of the great dividing range, stretching from areas to the west of Mackay up to areas to the west of Cairns. The seat covers Charters Towers, Moranbah, Atherton and Herberton.

History
The seat of Dalrymple was created at the 2009 election, largely replacing the former seats of Tablelands and Charters Towers.

Charters Towers was created most recently in 1992. Rob Mitchell held the seat for the National Party from 1992 until 2001, when the ALP’s Christine Scott won the seat.

Scott held the seat for one term, before losing to National candidate Shane Knuth in 2004. Knuth was re-elected in 2006 and joined the newly-merged Liberal National Party in 2008.

Tablelands had been restored in 1986, and was held from 1986 to 1998 by Tom Gilmore Jr, of the National Party.

In 1998, Gilmore was defeated by One Nation’s Shaun Nelson. Nelson left One Nation in 1999, and as an independent he was defeated in 2001 by Rosa Lee Long, the new One Nation candidate.

Lee Long held Tablelands for One Nation at the 2004 and 2006 elections.

When Charters Towers and Tablelands were abolished in 2009, Lee Long and Knuth both ran for Dalyrmple, and Knuth won the seat, with a 5.2% margin.

In October 2011, Shane Knuth resigned from the Liberal National Party to join Katter’s Australian Party.

Knuth was re-elected as a KAP candidate at the 2012 election.

Candidates

• Shane Knuth (Katter’s Australian Party)
• Liz Schmidt (Liberal National)
• Leanne Kettleton (Labor)
• Valerie Weier (Greens)

Assessment
Dalrymple is a very conservative seat, with the area it covers having been held by the Nationals, the LNP, One Nation and Katter’s Australian Party over the previous 15 years. The race will be between the sitting KAP MP and the Liberal National Party. Knuth holds the seat by a solid margin, and considering the likely anti-LNP swing he should probably win.

2012 election result

2012 two-candidate-preferred result

Booth breakdown
Booths in Dalrymple have been divided into four parts. Most polling places are concentrated at the northern tip of the electorate. These booths have been split into Atherton (right at the northern end) and Tablelands (immediately south of Atherton). There are also five polling places in the town of Charters Towers that have been grouped together. The remaining booths have been grouped as “South”. Approximately half of the seat’s population is in the Atherton area.

Katter’s Australian Party topped the primary vote in all four areas, winning a majority of primary votes in three and falling just short in the fourth area. The KAP primary vote ranged from 49.98% in Atherton to 65.8% in Charters Towers. On the estimated two-candidate-preferred vote, the KAP majority ranged from 61.2% in Atherton to 74.4% in the south.

The Liberal National Party came second with a vote ranging from 19.3% in the south to 32.7% in Atherton. Labor came third with a vote ranging from 7.1% in Charters Towers to 19.1% in the south.

The Electoral Commission does not publish two-candidate-preferred figures by polling place, so two-candidate-preferred figures in the following table and map are estimates.