Caloundra – Queensland 2015

LNP 21.23%

Incumbent MP
Mark McArdle, since 2004.

Geography
Sunshine Coast. Caloundra covers Golden Beach, Pelican Waters, Meridan Plains and parts of Little Mountain, Caloundra, Caloundra West and Currumundi.

History
The seat of Caloundra has existed since the 1992 election, and has always been held by the Liberal Party, now the LNP.

Liberal leader Joan Sheldon first won the seat in 1992. She had been first elected at the 1990 Landsborough by-election. Landsborough had been held by former Nationals Premier Mike Ahern.

Sheldon became Liberal leader in 1991, and moved to Caloundra at the 1992 election. She went on to serve as Deputy Premier and Treasurer in the Borbidge coalition government from 1996 to 1998, and stepped down as Liberal leader in 1998.

Sheldon retired in 2004, and was succeeded by Mark McArdle. McArdle became leader of the Liberal Party in 2007 as a compromise after the party’s 8-member caucus was deadlocked between Bruce Flegg and Tim Nicholls.

McArdle led the Liberal Party until the merger with the National Party in 2008, and served as Deputy Leader of the Liberal National Party until the 2009 election.

McArdle was re-elected with an increased majority in 2012, and has served as Minister for Energy since the 2012 election.

Candidates

Assessment
Caloundra is a safe LNP seat.

2012 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Mark McArdle Liberal National 17,280 64.22 +14.16
Christine Anthony Labor 6,037 22.44 -14.41
Allan McKay Greens 3,589 13.34 +3.71

2012 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Mark McArdle Liberal National 17,915 71.23 +15.03
Christine Anthony Labor 7,236 28.77 -15.03
Polling places in Caloundra at the 2012 Queensland state election. Caloundra in blue, Currimundi in orange, West in green. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Caloundra at the 2012 Queensland state election. Caloundra in blue, Currimundi in orange, West in green. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Caloundra have been divided into three parts. Polling places in the east of the seat have been split into Caloundra in the south and Currimundi in the north. The four polling places inland have been grouped as ‘west’.

The Liberal National Party’s primary vote ranged from 59.4% in Currimundi and the West to 66.8% in Caloundra. The LNP two-party-preferred vote ranged from 67.5% in Currimundi to 72.9% in Caloundra.

Labor’s primary vote ranged from 21.8% in Caloundra to 24.6% in Currimundi.

The Greens vote ranged from 11.4% in Caloundra to 17.1% in the west.

The Electoral Commission does not publish two-party-preferred figures by polling place, so two-party-preferred figures in the following table and map are estimates.

Voter group LNP prim % ALP prim % GRN prim % LNP 2PP % Total % of votes
Caloundra 66.84 21.79 11.37 72.89 9,101 33.83
West 59.43 23.45 17.12 68.16 5,398 20.06
Currimundi 59.41 24.56 16.03 67.53 4,316 16.04
Other votes 67.05 21.36 11.59 73.26 8,091 30.07
Estimated two-party-preferred votes in Caloundra at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Estimated two-party-preferred votes in Caloundra at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Greens primary votes in Caloundra at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Greens primary votes in Caloundra at the 2012 Queensland state election.

4 COMMENTS

  1. Has anyone seen any polling for this seat? Hunt is always out campaigning (very rare for Labor in a Sunshine Coast seat because Labor never have a chance up there.) He’s a local and former prison officer, so he’s no mug. The margin is very large but given McArdle has a poison chalice in Energy, has anyone seen anything to suggest there could be a large swing to Labor here?

  2. Yes Rudd for PM, I believe the unions are targeting McArdle here in Caloundra and you’re right when you say the Labor candidate is campaigning hard. Was in this electorate today and a few people commented to me they notice him out a lot with a good team behind him. McArdle will still comfortably hold on, but I think by only maybe 6%.

Comments are closed.