Burnett – Queensland 2015

LNP 8.50% vs IND

Incumbent MP
Stephen Bennett, since 2012.

Geography
Central Queensland. The seat covers coastal areas surrounding the city of Bundaberg, although not including the urban centre of Bundaberg. It covers Childers, Booyal, Elliott Heads, Bargara, Rosedale, Lowmead and Miriam Vale.

History
The seat of Burnett has existed continuously since 1960. In that time, the seat has been won by the National Party (in its various forms) at all but one election.

Doug Slack won the seat for the National Party in 1986. Slack served as a minister from 1996 to 1998, and held the seat until 2001.

In 2001, Slack was defeated by the ALP’s Trevor Strong.

In 2004, Strong was defeated by National Party candidate Rob Messenger.

Messenger won re-election in 2006 as a National and in 2009 for the Liberal National Party.

In 2010, Messenger, along with fellow MP Aidan McLindon, resigned from the Liberal National Party after a failed coup against the party’s deputy leader, Lawrence Springborg.

Messenger lost his seat in 2012 to LNP candidate Stephen Bennett. Messenger then went on to join the Palmer United Party and ran for Hinkler at the 2013 federal election. He has since served as chief of staff to Tasmanian Senator Jacqui Lambie, and was expelled from PUP in November 2014.

Candidates

Assessment
Burnett is naturally a very conservative seat. The LNP should have little trouble holding on to this seat unless there is a strong push from an independent or conservative minor party such as PUP or Katter’s Australian Party.

2012 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Stephen Bennett Liberal National 11,368 40.01 -16.64
Rob Messenger Independent 6,821 24.00 +24
Stuart Tomlinson Labor 4,618 16.25 -18.39
Kevin Pauling Katter’s Australian 4,542 15.98 +15.98
David Eastland Greens 1,066 3.75 -1.23

2012 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Stephen Bennett Liberal National 13,110 58.50 -2.60
Rob Messenger Independent 9,302 41.50 +41.5
Polling places in Burnett at the 2012 Queensland state election. Bundaberg surrounds in yellow, Central in green, North in orange, South in blue. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Burnett at the 2012 Queensland state election. Bundaberg surrounds in yellow, Central in green, North in orange, South in blue. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Burnett have been split into four parts. Those booths immediately around the city of Bundaberg (which is contained in its own seat) have been grouped as ‘Bundaberg Surrounds’. The remaining rural booths have been split into north, central and south. All those polling places in Gladstone council area have been grouped as ‘north’.

The LNP topped the primary vote in all four areas, with a vote ranging from 43.3% in Bundaberg Surrounds to 31.7% in the north.

Sitting independent MP Rob Messenger came second, with a vote ranging from 19.8% in Bundaberg Surrounds to 29.3% in the north.

Labor came third, and Katter’s Australian Party came fourth. The Labor vote was relatively steady, with 15-17% of the vote in each area. Despite polling slightly less than Labor, the KAP candidate outpolled Labor in Bundaberg Surrounds, the south and north, with a vote ranging from 14.4% in the centre to 19.6% in the south.

Voter group LNP prim % IND prim % ALP prim % KAP prim % Total % of votes
Central 41.84 23.44 16.45 14.35 8,683 30.56
Bundaberg Surrounds 43.25 19.82 16.09 17.74 5,767 20.30
South 37.72 24.92 15.27 19.60 3,327 11.71
North 31.74 29.32 16.90 17.79 2,029 7.14
Other votes 38.82 25.78 16.39 14.64 8,609 30.30
Liberal National primary votes in Burnett at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Liberal National primary votes in Burnett at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Primary votes for independent Rob Messenger in Burnett at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Primary votes for independent Rob Messenger in Burnett at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Labor primary votes in Burnett at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Labor primary votes in Burnett at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Katter's Australian Party primary votes in Burnett at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Katter’s Australian Party primary votes in Burnett at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Liberal National primary votes in the Bundaberg part of Burnett at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Liberal National primary votes in the Bundaberg part of Burnett at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Primary votes for independent Rob Messenger in the Bundaberg part of Burnett at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Primary votes for independent Rob Messenger in the Bundaberg part of Burnett at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Labor primary votes in the Bundaberg part of Burnett at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Labor primary votes in the Bundaberg part of Burnett at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Katter's Australian Party primary votes in the Bundaberg part of Burnett at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Katter’s Australian Party primary votes in the Bundaberg part of Burnett at the 2012 Queensland state election.

4 COMMENTS

  1. When will we be able to see a list of candidates for the 2015 election? I would love to put some questions to them regarding their policies. Thanks.

  3. Messenger’s vote may go to the PUP and give them a bigger vote here then anywhere else in the state. Probably a swing to the LNP here but

Comments are closed.