Broadwater – Queensland 2015

LNP 61.29%

Incumbent MP
Verity Barton, since 2012.

Geography
Northern parts of the Gold Coast. The seat covers the suburbs of Labrador, Biggera Waters, Runaway Bay, Coombabah and Paradise Point as well as South Stradbroke Island.

History
The electorate of Broadwater was first created for the 1992 election. The seat was won by the National Party from 1992 to 2001, and has been held by the ALP since then.

At the first election in 1992 the seat was considered safe for the conservative parties and was fiercely contested by the Liberal Party and the National Party, with the National Party’s Allan Grice winning the seat.

Grice held the seat at the 1995 and 1998 elections, but was defeated in 2001 by the ALP’s Peta-Kaye Croft. Croft was re-elected in 2004, 2006 and 2009.

In 2012, Croft was defeated by Liberal National candidate Verity Barton, who easily knocked over Croft’s 2% margin with a 13.3% swing.

Candidates

Assessment
Broadwater is traditionally a marginal seat – the seat was held by the Nationals from 1992 to 2001, then Labor from 2001 until 2012.

If the next Queensland election is close, Broadwater is likely to be a close race.

2012 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Verity Barton Liberal National 13,583 51.30 +7.37
Peta-Kaye Croft Labor 8,378 31.64 -15.17
Peter McCambridge Katter’s Australian 1,408 5.32 +5.32
Ron Clarke Independent 1,219 4.60 +4.6
James Brydges Greens 851 3.21 -1.78
Liz Pforr Independent 552 2.08 +2.08
Ben O’Brien Family First 485 1.83 +1.83

2012 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Verity Barton Liberal National 14,513 61.29 +13.32
Peta-Kaye Croft Labor 9,167 38.71 -13.32
Polling places in Broadwater at the 2012 Queensland state election. Central in blue, North in yellow, South in green. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Broadwater at the 2012 Queensland state election. Central in blue, North in yellow, South in green. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Broadwater have been divided into three parts: central, north and south.

The LNP polled more strongly in the centre and the north, with around 54% of the primary vote and 62-64% of the two-party-preferred vote in those areas. The LNP only narrowly outpolled Labor on both primary votes and two-party-preferred votes in the south.

The Electoral Commission does not publish two-party-preferred figures by polling place, so two-party-preferred figures in the following table and map are estimates.

Voter group LNP prim % ALP prim % LNP 2PP % Total % of votes
Central 54.10 30.00 63.68 7,370 27.84
North 53.51 31.53 62.47 6,588 24.88
South 41.63 37.15 52.88 4,845 18.30
Other votes 52.83 29.84 63.13 7,673 28.98
Estimated two-party-preferred votes in Broadwater at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Estimated two-party-preferred votes in Broadwater at the 2012 Queensland state election.

20 COMMENTS

  1. Wow Ron Clarke didn’t do very well given his profile as Mayor and former Olympian. I take it he finished his time as Mayor being very unpopular?

    Allan Grice was certainly helped by his celebrity status as one of the most prominent racing drivers of the era and twice winner of the Bathurst 1000. I remember Grice actually continued to race, including at Bathurst, after his election to parliament.

  4. In this case it looks like it does because on Barton’s profile it says “Verity has put her hand up to seek re-election as your local member”

  6. Angus, to be honest candidate listings are not my top priority at the moment – if people find updates they can post them as comments and I will deal with them all occasionally, but won’t be constantly looking for them until I’ve managed to get the whole guide posted.

  7. If labor is to for, government it needs to pick up the Gold Coast. This will be a great seat to hold for a strong opposition team but if this is the only GC seat it picks up for government it would be a low hanging fruit

  8. I doubt Labor will win here, Penny Toland is campaigning to win but this is a seat Labor only wins when their doing exceptionally well. I don’t think 2015 is their year, however 2018 may be a possibility. Verity Barton to hold this one.

  9. Labor will need to win win a seat on the Gold Coast if they want to be a stron opposition at this stage. I doubt Gaven would be that seat given that Alex Douglas is atleast gone out respectfully and will probably finish second but this seat has a poor performin LNP MP who has faced controversy over comments she has made and in the event the LNP is in trouble in some seats this one will probably be the one that is Sacraficed. Labor needs to have a presence on the Gold Coast and other regions to be competitive so this and probably Burleigh will be hotly contested but this seems more easy to see falling

  10. Surely the incompetence and poor image of Verity Barton will make this a genuine chance to fall to labor

  12. Verity Barton could knock a handicapped kid out of wheelchair and laugh and still win. Labor WON’T pick up a Gold Coast seat, they (the GC people) believe the VLAD laws are the greatest thing since sliced bread.

  13. I don’t know, RfPM, they might not vote for Labor, but they could send their votes “Vote 1” to PUP, which could split the vote and hand Labor the win.

  14. We normally vote for LNP but will be going with stuart ballantyne from FF this year. He runs a small business and knows ALOT about the state amd federal economy

  15. Barton is gone. No doubt. Labor will win Broadwater. Poor candidate with an even poorer performance. She’s gone to ground over her driving record.Sunk by Wavebreak Island

  17. Barton will hold on – people are morons. The people of the Sunshine Coast (where I live) voted in Peter Slippers for 20 years and he was always a dud. Then, after all that debacle they vote in another crook, Mal Brough. People never learn. The Gold Coast thinks Newman’s bikie laws are the greatest thing ever so that will ensure the dud MP that is Verity, will win. Staunch Labor people ocassionally change in circumstances like 2012 but staunch Liberals NEVER change. Plenty of them on the GC.

  18. That polls proves my point – almost 50 percent of respondants indicated they will vote LNP, while the majority of those not will send their votes to someone other than Labor. Poor form Gold Coast, poor form.

Comments are closed.