Prahran by-election, 2025

It is not out of the question that one of the indies could build from a low base. However, with so many candidates, preferences will fly everywhere. The school principal could do well and has the donkey as well. There could be voters too who don’t know who to vote for but want to avoid Libs and Greens and just start at the top. Both byelection counts will be fascinating to watch.

I just think that mathematically, you only need 33.3% to guarantee a spot in the 2CP, and both Libs & Greens will at the very least already start around that (most likely above it) even before the first exclusion.

This has changed demographically to an extent. The margin is inflated here and this should be a Liberal pickup given the current political environment however a 12.1% swing is a tall order. This seat is needed for the Liberals to return to government.

My report from the ground.

The Greens have the most volunteers and signs, and probably have the edge. A lot of young people walking in with only Green how to vote cards. A handful of people with only Liberal cards as well.

The mood is very calm and pleasant. There was a considerable lack of Advance volunteers compared to the pre poll centres. I think it only feels that way though, because there are so many other volunteers.

The big candidate to watch is Nathan Chisholm. Almost every voter has stopped to listen when they hear that he is the local school principal. Many voters going in with his card, and a combination with Tony Lupton. He is not directing preferences, so will be important tonight.

One other thing with Advance, is that they say ‘put the Greens last”, but many voters are only hearing ‘Greens’, causing them to walk past as they already have the Greens how to vote cards. This, among other things makes me think that Advance’s volunteers are not actually very effective. But having Lupton and the Liberals putting them Greens last could be fatal.

My prediction:
Greens 41%
Liberals 34%
Lupton 12%
Chisholm 6%
Others 7%

TPP GRN 51/LIB 49
GREEN RETAIN

@Darcy which booth?

over here at South Yarra/Toorak the Libs have the most volunteers

Alot of people opnly taking the lib HTV cards

Library*

I was at Melbourne Girls Grammar in South Yarra. Someone did mention that the Libs seemed better where you are. We’re probably both also a bit biased.

I don’t see the Greens increasing their primary vote given the circumstances of former incumbents reason of retiring what’s going to be interesting to watch is where the preferences go from all the other parties.

Is there going to be any coverage of this and Werribee on ABC News 24 tonight?

So far the VEC has not provided a 7 February receipt of postal votes tally, nor same for how many voted early on Friday.

@adam im sure they will provide rolling updates as they come in but i doubt theyll devote an entire segment

I could see the Liberals winning the Hawksburn, Toorak West & Toorak booths back.

Possibly even the Orrong booth in the tpp.

To me, the only real question is just how strong of a personal vote Sam Hibbins had. I’m willing to believe it was sizeable, particularly on the primary vote (ie. converting Labor voters to Greens voters), but given that this contest is in the absence of Labor a relatively straightforward left-right contest, I’m not seeing the conditions for a 13% 2PP swing in this electorate.

No independent is going to overtake one of Greens or Labor so that is a proposition that’s dead in the water.

To account for the loss of Hibbins’ personal vote, I don’t have exact numbers for what the Greens-Liberal margin would be on the Federal level here but it’s certainly not marginal. Moreover, this is an area that has only been weakening for the Liberal party compared to the rest of Victoria in recent years. So even accounting for some swing back, I don’t view this as a seat that is close to being lost.

I think the final margin will be above 5% here for the Greens.

One of Greens or Liberal*

@Adda I can’t remember but I might’ve calculated it some time around when the by-election was announced (maybe a few pages back?). The state Liberals do better than the federal Liberals here though, that’s a fact (I’ve looked at the booth results).

I voted at the St Kilda booth (St Michael’s) and walked past the Chapel St, Windsor booth afterwards to get coffee.

My observations: both relatively quiet which could be a sign of low turnout, not favourable to the Greens. However, pretty much every person I saw taking HTVCs only had Greens ones. The Liberal volunteers were hilariously shouting “BE SURE TO PUT THE GREENS LAST!” to people only holding Greens HTVCs too, haha.

That said, it is the Greens’ best area, and there weren’t that many voters to observe, so I’m unwilling to make any prediction based on that.

Interestingly, very little Lupton presence at both places, only saw 1 volunteer at each, not really getting HTVCs into anyone’s hand. Nathan Chisholm actually had more volunteers and signs.

One thing I’m curious about tonight is how the PB live results will track the swings where 2022 polling places are not in use this year.

For example, in 2022 there were 3 St Kilda polling places that averaged around 74-26 on 2CP, but the only one in use this year was the one that had the smallest vote share but a 82-18 2CP.

So for example if the result this year there is 68-32 for example, it could look like a -14 swing but it would actually only be around a -6 swing because it’s basically all 3 combined.

Prediction 55-45 Greens.

Also predicting 55-45 greens! But definitely could go either way

I think it might be closer

I’ve posted this comment on the Werribee thread already, but I’ll post here as well.

I see the Prahran by-election as a ‘go big or go home’ moment for the Liberals. This might be the last time in basically forever that they could win Prahran, thanks to the numerous factors in the contest (Greens MP controversy, Lupton running, No Labor candidate). I think the Liberals need to put every ounce of energy into winning here, because if they can win here, then it would make it look like Battin can appeal to inner city voters, even though I feel it was Pesutto’s has a shadow here and also the fact Rachel Westaway has run a good campaign. Moral of the story, they must win here as it could be the last time they ever will.

My final prediction is a Greens retain but a Liberal victory is possible and can happen in these circumstances.

My prediction for booths that will flip to the Liberals on primary (and potenitally 2CP):
– Hawksburn (Toorak/South Yarra Library)
– Fawkner Park (Christ Church Grammar School)
– South Yarra (Melbourne Girls Grammar)
– Orrong (Our Lady of Lourdes School)

Antony Green quite rightly says he doesn’t know which of the two early voting centres has reported. He seems frustrated by this. Understandable. But he says these (reported) pre-poll votes “favour the Liberals”.

My guess is it’s South Yarra, not Windsor.

On the 2CP votes counted thus far, Rachel W (Liberal) is ahead by around 300 but too early to call.

@Trent how are you feeling mate

Did the abc have a segment devoted to the elections or just rolling updates

Looks like John Black upstaged all his haters here

@Corey, always said a LIB gain was possible because of all the factors unique to this byelection, which ended up playing out.

Low turnout, no Labor, Lupton’s presence sending what would usually be Labor votes to the Libs, huge anti-Greens campaign by Advance and Liberals who could focus on one seat, etc.

The decisive factor was that over 50% of preferences flowed to the Liberals, which would never happen with Labor running (I bet they wish they did).

But I knew it was possible and know it doesn’t really matter because the Libs can’t hold it beyond 2026 with normal turnout and Labor on the ballot.

2026 will at least be 55-45 Greens again.

@trent I’d be happy to agree with that statement

Not so certain about the Greens winning this back in 2026, if Labor’s primary vote doesn’t recover and the Greens don’t improve the Liberals could hold on here with a tight margin. By the time 2026 election rolls around Rachel Westaway will have built some sort of personal vote and now the Liberals will be putting the effort to hold on.

@Trent , so much of your analysis has been shown to be incorrect. You tipped a Greens win but did not foresee the Liberal Party’s strong performance with not just postals, but prepoll votes as well.

@Ben , ex-Labor Senator John Black’s analysis was better than you gave him credit for.

@spacefish there was no labor vote here and even if you count Luptons towards the Labor vote which it appears the abc has by the looks of things. he directed his preferences towards the libs and the labor party in 2026 will not. so even if libs and greens maintain their primary vote labors will surely be upwards of 20% and there wont be as many independents to dilute te vote. Greens should easily regain it but it wont be the 125 margin it will likely be 54-55% on the tpp. this is a very left of centre seat now and the libs couldnt even hold it with a 45% primary in 2014. the only way they hold is if westaway can biuld up a bffer through a personal vote and if the libs can do what they say.

@Rob, of course just looking for an argument again.

I said countless times Libs could win and it could be anywhere between narrow LIB gain and aboce 55% Greens and tipped 53-47 Greens as a middle ground.

I knew their primary votes would be around the same, and they were, but I expected both Libs and Greens’ primaries would be 2-3% higher and combine for high 70s rather than low 70s, and that preferences would flow at least 55-45 to Greens being mostly ex-Labor voters but it was the other way around.

I’m happy to admit I got those two things wrong but we’re talking a result that was 4% off what I considered the middle of a possible 8% range and within what I thought could happen, so no need to be smug.

@john & SpaceFish: The reason I think Greens should comfortably regain it in 2026 is because even a 50.5 – 49.5 preference split to the Greens would have been a Greens retain yesterday.

With Labor instead of Lupton on the ballot, there’s no way the Greens are getting under 60% of the preference flow let alone under 50.5%. Also obviously in a general election there’s more scrutiny of the opposition. The Liberal primary may hold up due to incumbency but that’s not close to a winning primary vote with both Labor & Greens on a ballot combining for 60%.

However it could be a tighter 3CP with Labor back in the race again, and return to a seat where whoever finishes higher out of Labor and Greens win. But with Labor’s dire polling and the Greens primary mostly holding up, that’s unlikely at the next election so should give the Greens a chance to cement incumbency again before 2030.

It will certainly be interesting in 2026. The Greens should win it back, because Labor will be running and the Libs will be under scrutiny. However, Rachel Westaway ran a campaign more about her, than the Libs. She seems like the type of member to become quite popular quite quickly. Whilst we don’t know what will happen, after a few months, she seems like what many are predicting David Crisafulli to become, popular, having earnt it. This will remain a fascinating seat.

@trent labor are in the shitter polling wise no way labor are winning here. 1. its technically a greens seat that was lost de to by elections and 2. labor are in the crapper against liberals as well labor wont be winning any seats off anone in my opinion

Labor is probably happy with the result here. They have a far better shot of winning Prahran without a Greens incumbent than with one. With the Greens starting to do worse with middle class voters (Prahran has a lot of them), I’d say Labor has a decent chance of outpolling the Greens next time.

In the upper house in Prahran 2022 the result was:
26.8 Green
27.3 ALP
27.4 LIB

Very winnable for all three parties

@drake 2022 was a high tide election and they have tanked since then. GRN gain.
the other thing is who will the libs preference? last election the libs put labor last giving the Greens Richmond and currently the Greens are close in 4 seats against labor.

I don’t see Labor really targeting here as they will be busy sandbagging other electorates rather than expanding their lower house seat majority. If Labor’s fortunes don’t change in Victoria and Liberals keep their house in order and if Dutton wins in April and doesn’t drag his state counterpart down then Labor’s primary vote in this seat like other seats around the state will go backwards. What the Greens can hope for is that increase their primary vote in 2026 or Labor’s primary vote is similar to 2022 election results. At this moment and given the current circumstances the Liberals should hold here with a small margin.

I agree Labor won’t target this and Greens will be in the 2CP again, but I can’t see how the Liberals possibly win that .

Even without the factor of Labor not running, there were tons of factors favouring the Liberals more than at a general election (turnout, cause of byelection, no risk of Liberal government, no Labor/attack campaign against Libs, etc).

And even with that, as I said, only 50.5% of overall preference flows would have seen a Greens win.

In 2026, simply having Labor on that ballot, even if they only got 15%, would flip this back to Greens because they’d get at least a 65-35 preference split (thats being extremely conservative) compared to 45-55 this time.

I agree with John that it should be a comfortable Greens gain, BUT much reduced from 2022 (maybe around 55%).

@Trent I hope you can see that the Greens are becoming increasingly unpopular amongst inner city electorates due to focusing too hard on the Middle Eastern conflict and culture wars. The Greens went too hard on the Middle Eastern conflict and it showed in the QLD state election and here.

Once the Greens realise this, they can start winning these seats again. Until then, it is a downward spiral from here.

Why would Labor not target this? If they won it’d be a comfortable seat with a popular incumbent they wouldn’t be a risk of losing. Labor aren’t prepared to just give the Greens a free seat forever. If they have a chance in a seat they’ll give it a go, especially with no Greens incumbent. In 2026 it’d probably be the seat they’d have the best chance of gaining. Labor basically sees the Greens winning a seat the same as the Libs.

Especially if the trends continue of Labor doing better with middle class voters in the inner city and the Greens continue to do worse with this demographic.

@Drake that is a good point. Especially if Labor selected an excellent high profile candidate in particular (which they haven’t been), they would have a good chance in 2026 of challenging the Greens to make the 2CP again.

And whoever makes the 2CP wins (not near the level of a 2022 margin but probably closer to 2018).

I think now Labor would have a better 2CP vs LIB than the Greens would too. If Greens made the 2CP they’d probably win 55-45 in 2026; whereas if Labor make the 2CP their 2CP is more likely to be in the 56-57% range I would think, because unlike previous elections I think Greens preferences would flow stronger now to Labor than the other way around.

@Wombater, I’m just honestly not seeing the Greens focusing on the Middle Eastern conflict whatsoever. I live in a Greens heartland suburb that is in smack in the middle of one of their main federal targets (Macnamara) as well as being in a state seat that had a Greens MP for 10 years, and not once have I heard any of the local MPs or candidates – Steph Hodgins May, Sonya Semmens, Angelica Di Camillo or Sam Hibbins – even mention it in a campaign. In fact I would go as far as to say they actively avoid the issue.

So the whole perception around the Greens “focusing on” Palestine is really confected by their opponents to attack them I think. Yes, some Greens MPs certainly have a strong personal stance on it, but in my experience living right in the middle of a Greens target area for the last 2 decades, it’s only their opponents who have ever mentioned it.

@Trent it is the constant presence of the Greens in pro-Palestine rallies that sticks in voters’ minds – such as Max Chandler Mather’s attendance at a pro-Palestine rally, where he stood on stage and gave an enthusiastic speech calling for “an end to the brutal, decades-long blockade of Gaza”.

1) When have you seen Labor/Liberal politicians attend such rallies/protests

2) What in the world is an Australian senator doing meddling in a foreign conflict that Australia has no power or point meddling in?

It only signalled to more moderate Greens voters (and potentially left leaning Labor voters too) that the Greens have completely lost sight of domestic issues – it showed in the QLD elections and Prahran too.

Whilst I can understand your local Greens MPs are certainly not as provocative, the actions of prominent Greens politicians like Chandler Mather and Faruqi that are the face of the party are more than enough to turn voters away.

You may not see the Greens’ constant meddling in the Middle Eastern conflict – but I can assure you that most voters do, especially the ones who voted Greens in the past solely because of the environment – only to find themselves unable to vote for a party which has completely pivoted away from environmental issues.

Claiming that it’s “really confected by their opponents to attack them” is an easy way out that fails to consider how current Greens voters view the party’s misaligned political direction – seen so clearly in the images of the Greens’ flag being flown side by side with Palestine’s flag, and several prominent Greens MP/Senators who have constantly used their time and effort to support one side in a conflict Australia realistically shouldn’t be getting involved in. Especially when they could be using that time and effort to a) save the environment (which is what most of their lost voter base wanted, I suspect) or b) push for socialist policies (which is what most of their new voter base wants, I suspect).

Why else do you think the Greens thought they’d go from 2 to 6 Greens seats in the last Queensland election, but ended up with just 1?

@Wombater, you make valid points about voter perceptions, but that doesn’t make my point that their opponents are misleadingly exploiting that any less valid either.

I was talking about specifically in the Prahran campaign, the Greens’ opponents misleadingly exploiting that perception.

If Angelica Di Camillo and the Prahran Greens had not once mentioned Palestine, and literally just focused exclusively on only local issues – which I can confirm is true – but Rachel Westway, Advance & Tony Lupton sent out materials claiming that Angelica Di Camillo (not the QLD Greens, but Angelica specifically) wasn’t focused on local issues, how are the Liberals/Advance/Lupton NOT the ones making the byelection about that? And how is Angelica the one making it about that? That was my point.

Are you saying Westaway, Advance & Lupton’s materials are 100% honest, and the Prahran Greens specifically had zero focus on local issues and were entirely focused on stoking extremism as they were claiming?

I completely understand there’s a broader voter perception, but that doesn’t mean the Greens’ local opposition aren’t the ones exploiting that issue at a local level, personally blaming a candidate who hasn’t even mentioned the subject for “focusing” on it, when in actual fact, literally the only local campaigns that focused on anti-semitism were the Liberal & Lupton campaigns!

I would also argue that even at a broader, national party level, the Greens are “focusing” on the issue less than the Liberal Party.

Yes, some Greens MPs have attended protests and used Palestinian flags.

But have they had the same level of focus on whether or not Albanese is “doing enough” to combat antisemitism, and criticising Labor’s UN votes, and talking about the relationship with Netanyahu and all of that, as the Liberal Party have?

I actually think the Liberals have focused on Gaza, Israel and anti-semitism more than any other party over the last year. And that was also true in the Prahran byelection, where the Liberals & Tony Lupton were the only ones talking about it too. They wanted to make it the focus of the campaign to attack the Greens candidate, who really just wanted to avoid the subject.

So while I get your point about the optics of the Greens MPs who do express that view, do you think that if the Liberals and Tony Lupton also just avoided the subject, never brought it up, or if they did were just honest and said “No, Angelica Di Camillo hasn’t even mentioned it”, that there would be the same voter perception? Or do you think maybe they found it politically advantageous to make it an issue?

@Trent your first statement that “…not once have I heard any of the local MPs or candidates – Steph Hodgins May, Sonya Semmens, Angelica Di Camillo or Sam Hibbins – even mention it in a campaign. In fact I would go as far as to say they actively avoid the issue…” is correct. However, the next statement claims that “…the whole perception around the Greens “focusing on” Palestine is really confected by their opponents to attack them I think…”

Whilst true for your local Greens members and surrounds, voters do not vote in a chasm. My initial comment was regarding the political direction of the Greens nationwide, not in Prahran. Yes, I can acknowledge that the opposition parties certainly honed in on it in Prahran, whilst the Greens candidate didn’t touch on it – but that was not what I was referring to. I was referring to the wider voter perception that the Greens are leaning too much into a conflict we have no real control over, and it is affecting all Greens seats, like Prahran. Again, just because you don’t see it in your area, does not mean other voters aren’t seeing it. That is where the issue is.

If they did not see the Greens as become an increasingly radical party that is losing sight of its core values, they would not have fallen for the content about stoking extremism. Yes – the Greens candidate did not even say one word about the Middle East but she is attached to a party which constantly speaks at and attends rallies, and spends more time campaigning on Palestine than campaigning on the environment. Politicians that belong to political parties do not exist alone – what the prominent Greens politicians do WILL affect her image no matter what, just like how Dutton likely impacted Westaway’s image to an extent.

And it is objectively incorrect to claim that “the Greens are “focusing” on the issue less than the Liberal Party.” That is just pure denial at this stage. I have never seen the Liberal flag being flown in Israel rallies, nor have there been any prominent Liberal politicians attending the Israel rallies either. I have never seen a Liberal politician walk out of parliament over the ceasefire vote like Mehreen Faruqi did. Finally, yes – the Liberals are focusing on antisemitism but that is a completely different topic. It is completely different to press Labor on their response to antisemitism in Australia (a truely domestic issue) compared to attending and speaking fervidly at Palestine rallies, supporting one side in a war we have no place in supporting (not a domestic issue at all).

Combating antisemitism in Australia is not the same as expressing support for one side of a war we have no place in. You are now conflating the two when in a previous comment, you already made the distinction. They are not the same and you should know that.

And yes – I do think even if the subject wasn’t brought up by the Liberals and Lupton, there would be the same voter perception against the Greens nationwide. The Greens’ landslide losses in Queensland prove this perception to be true, regardless of whether their opposition decides to hone in on it or not.

@Trent

I agree with you, The Greens ran a relentless campaign in Maiwar, with billboards and flyers criticising the incumbent Greens MP for being “antisemitic”. To his credit, while the Greens member for Maiwar supports Palestine, he rarely mentioned it in his campaign and focused more on local/state issues. The Liberals seem to be doing the exact same “antisemitism” campaign for the Ryan federal campaign. While there are some Greens members/MPs who are especially vocal in their support for Palestine, in general, the Liberals are much more vocal in their support for Israel.

@Wombater

QLDer here! I’m by no means a fan of the Greens, but I can tell you that their supposed “focusing on international issues” had nothing to do with their underperformance in the QLD election. As a young person who lives in (and campaigned in) a QLD greens target seat, the swing against The Greens in the inner-city is mostly because of QLD labor’s progressive stance on a number of issues (free school lunches, coal royalties, 50c fares), and Steven Miles using social media well to communicate this to young voters. This swung a lot of young, progressive inner city voters from The Greens to Labor, especially first time voters. Steven Miles also campaigned strongly on maintaining abortion access, and this swung a lot of inner-city professional women from The Greens to Labor. As someone on the ground, I can tell you the swings against The Greens in QLD had nothing to do with the Liberals’ line of “The Greens are focusing too much on international issues.” In fact, people didn’t like the Liberals bringing the antisemitism debate into a state campaign.

And by the Liberals’ antisemitism debate, I mean them conflating individual Greens members’ pro-Palestine positions with being antisemitic. And running with this as a main campaign issue in the state election. Isn’t it interesting that according to the Liberals’ campaign material, only Greens MPs in Liberal target seats are antisemitic, not ones in Greens/Labor seats.

@A A, I agree completely.

When I mentioned the Liberals “focusing on antisemitism” I was talking about exactly how you describe it, them conflating it with the Greens’ pro-Palestine position, exploiting the issue, and making it the centre of attention. I wasn’t talking about just calling out or combating the actual obvious acts of antisemitism such as the white supremacists on the steps of Victorian parliament and nazi symbols being spray-painted on synagogues, which all parties including the Greens have called out.

There is no way I would agree that the Greens have made Palestine more of a “focus” of their campaign, than the Liberals have made the Greens’ position on Palestine (or even what they frame as Labor’s “weak” support for Israel) a focus of their own campaign and public commentary. And a key part of that strategy, especially against the Greens in seats like Prahran and Maiwar and no doubt Ryan at the upcoming election, is to falsely claim that the Greens are not focused on local issues.

When really it was the other way around. In Prahran, the Greens had a big map of the electorate with a list of all their policies and priorities such as upgrading South Yarra Station, building the St Kilda Primary School hall, saving Windsor Children’s Centre, cheaper PT fares, capping rent increases, protected bike lanes on St Kilda Road, the ‘Greenline’ project through St Kilda East, making Windsor Station accessible, increasing tram & train frequencies between 7am-7pm, preventing Prahran post office from closing, putting a vacancy tax on commercial properties to activate Chapel St and bring down commercial rents, more EV charging stations, and the opposite page had their more broad policies of no more coal & gas, emissions targets, and free childcare. Many of these policies had $$ figures next to them, and explained how they would be funded. But not once did anything even mention a position on the Middle East.

Many may not agree with the policies – whether they are good or even realistic, or the source of funding – and that’s fine.

But for the Liberals & Advance to be claiming that the Greens are not focused on local issues, while most of their own campaign materials actually had no local policies (just one had broad slogans about low taxes & reducing crime) and the remainder only attacked the Greens for “not caring about local issues” and supporting extremism, is quite ironic as the Greens were actually the only ones focusing on local issues rather than attacking opponents or bringing up Palestine.

I suspect that the Greens might run with a more Pro Palestine campaign north of the river and very much downplay the issue south of the river especially in Macnamara, Kooyong and Goldstein. The issue of Palestine is pretty much front and centre on their website. I have voted for the Greens in the past but on this and other issues my vote these days will go nowhere near them.

Yeah I think the Greens will definitely focus more on Palestine in Wills, and avoid it in Macnamara. So I don’t disagree whatsoever that the fact that in some areas there is a focus on it, and some MPs or candidates do have a passionate view on it, nor that that’s a factor that does contribute to the overall voter perception.

What I just find hypocritical and somewhat ironic, is the fact that the Liberals, Advance and Tony Lupton really focused their entire campaign on Angelica Di Camillo not focusing on “local issues” due to a) Her previously running in the seat where she grew up; and b) The Greens’ broader stance on Palestine, when in actual fact her campaign was far more locally focused than the Liberals’ campaign which made a concerted effort to put the Gaza issue front & centre.