Cause of by-election
Sitting independent MP Sam Hibbins, until recently a member of the Greens, resigned after recently quitting his party due to the revelation of an affair with a staff member.
Margin – GRN 12.0% vs LIB
Incumbent MP
Sam Hibbins, since 2014.
Geography
Inner southern Melbourne. Prahran covers the suburbs of Prahran, South Yarra and Windsor and parts of St Kilda and St Kilda East.
History
Prahran has been a state electorate since 1889. It has alternated between the ALP and conservative parties, before falling to the Greens in 2014.
The ALP first won the seat in 1894, holding it until 1900. Liberal MP Donald Mackinnon held the seat from 1900 to 1920. The ALP and conservative parties alternated in control until the 1930s, with the Liberal Party holding the seat until 1945.
In 1945, the ALP’s William Quirk won the seat, holding it until his death in November 1948. The ensuing by-election in 1949 was won by Frank Crean, who had previously held the seat of Albert Park. He left the seat in 1951 when he moved to the federal seat of Melbourne Ports. He served as a federal MP until 1977, playing a senior role in the Whitlam Labor government.
The 1951 Prahran by-election was won by the ALP’s Robert Pettiona, who held the seat until his defeat in 1955.
Since 1955, Prahran has been won by the ALP only four times. In 1955, the seat was won by Sam Loxton, a Liberal candidate. Loxton was a former test cricketer who had been part of Don Bradman’s Invincibles team and played VFL football for St Kilda.
Loxton held the seat until 1979, when the ALP’s Bob Miller won the seat. He held the seat for two terms, and in 1985 unsuccessfully contested the Legislative Council province of Monash.
The Liberal Party’s Don Hayward won the seat in 1985. He had previously held the upper house seat of Monash from 1979 to 1985. He served as Member for Prahran until the 1996 election.
In 1996, the Liberal Party’s Leonie Burke won Prahran. Burke was defeated in 2002 by the ALP’s Tony Lupton. Lupton was re-elected in 2006.
In 2010, Lupton was defeated by Liberal candidate Clem Newton-Brown.
Prahran produced an unusual result in 2014, with the third-placed Greens candidate Sam Hibbins overtaking both Labor and Liberal candidates to win narrowly.
Hibbins was re-elected in 2018, again coming third on primary votes and then overtaking Labor and Liberal to win.
Hibbins gained a sizeable primary vote swing in 2022, with Labor reduced to a clear third place, and he also increased his majority after preferences.
Hibbins resigned from the Greens in November 2024 due to the revelation of a previous affair with a staff member.
- Nathan Chisholm (Independent)
- Rachel Westaway (Liberal)
- Janine Hendry (Independent)
- Geneviève Gilbert (Family First)
- Alan Menadue (Independent)
- Tony Lupton (Independent)
- Mark Dessau (Libertarian)
- Angelica Di Camillo (Greens)
- Dennis Bilic (Sustainable Australia)
- Buzz Billman (Independent)
- Faith Fuhrer (Animal Justice
Assessment
Prahran has effectively two different axes on which competition takes place – between Labor and Greens to be the leading progressive party, and between those parties and the Liberal Party on the two-candidate-preferred count. The race was close on both axes in 2014. In 2018 the Liberal Party wasn’t competitive but Labor and Greens were still close. In 2022, Hibbins won easily on both.
This seat could be competitive on either axis in Hibbins’ absence, particularly considering the circumstances of his departure.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Sam Hibbins | Greens | 14,286 | 36.4 | +8.1 |
| Matthew Lucas | Liberal | 12,198 | 31.1 | -1.6 |
| Wesa Chau | Labor | 10,421 | 26.6 | -3.9 |
| Alice Le Huray | Animal Justice | 1,263 | 3.2 | +0.9 |
| Ronald Emilsen | Family First | 626 | 1.6 | +1.6 |
| Alan Menadue | Independent | 449 | 1.1 | +0.8 |
| Informal | 1,223 | 3.0 |
2022 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Sam Hibbins | Greens | 24,334 | 62.0 | +3.0 |
| Matthew Lucas | Liberal | 14,909 | 38.0 | -3.0 |
Booths have been divided into three areas: central, north and south.
The Greens topped the primary vote in all three areas, with a vote ranging from 39.1% in hte north to 45.5% in the south.
The Liberal Party came second, with a primary vote ranging from 18% in the south to 29.2% in the north. Labor’s primary vote ranged from 24.5% in the centre to 29.6% in the south, and outpolling Liberal in the south.
The Greens two-candidate-preferred vote against the Liberal Party ranged from 64% in the north to 76.3% in the south.
| Voter group | GRN prim | LIB prim | ALP prim | GRN 2CP | Total votes | % of votes |
| North | 39.1 | 29.2 | 25.9 | 64.0 | 5,206 | 13.3 |
| Central | 43.9 | 26.3 | 24.5 | 68.3 | 3,879 | 9.9 |
| South | 45.5 | 18.0 | 29.6 | 76.3 | 2,865 | 7.3 |
| Pre-poll | 35.4 | 32.7 | 26.6 | 61.1 | 18,980 | 48.3 |
| Other votes | 30.5 | 35.2 | 26.9 | 56.5 | 8,357 | 21.3 |
Election results in Prahran at the 2022 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Greens vs Liberal) and primary votes for the Greens, the Liberal Party and Labor.
Former ALP Senator John Black is claiming in the ‘AFR’ that the Liberal Party will win Prahran and Werribee on Saturday 8 February, saying ‘the odds favour’ such an outcome.
He also comments that if this comes to pass, the Federal Labor government is looking ‘terminal’.
Preferencing tendencies of Labor voters* not candidates, of course.
Specifically this post, from NSW 2023, where the differences between Labor voters in inner city vs regional/rural seats are evident. https://www.tallyroom.com.au/51058
Thanks Adda, I was about to reference that blog post.
There is plenty of evidence that Labor voters in Prahran very strongly favour the Greens over the Liberal Party, moreso than in your typical inner-city contest let alone other places like Lismore.
John Black’s opinion isn’t worth much.
still without labor directing preferences to the greems and the large field I imagine the liberals will finish first on preferences. and the result could be close especially with form Labor member Lupton directing preferences to the Libs.
@Raue hypothetical if ay the Greens failed to nominate in time who wins the seat then? Libs or does one of the left wing candidates?
Well said Adda. You put what I was trying to get across much more eloquently than I did!
@Ben – Reports I have heard from the ground support that evidence too. Labor voters, even those who have indicated an intention to vote for Tony Lupton, have apparently been expressing far more dislike for the Liberals than the Greens and “I would never preference the Liberals” has been a common theme.
Adda is right that most people who opt to not give their primary vote to either the Greens or Liberals, will already know exactly which one they will preference higher. A HTVC will not influence that. And most who are Labor voters will prefer the Greens. Without HTVCs I agree it’s unlikely to be 80% or more, but 70% is realistic.
If you assume given recent polling in Victoria and factors like low turnout, cause of byelection and loss of Greens incumbency, that if Labor had run the results might have been:
LIB 36, GRN 32, ALP 24, Others 8.
If 70% of the Labor vote ends up with the Greens, much of which will come via an IND/minor vote first (so these next figures are not primary votes), it will break around 17-7 which gets us to roughly 49 GRN, 43 LIB and 8 Other before factoring in the preferences from voters who would have voted ‘Other’ even if Labor ran.
Guess what that would wind up being? A Greens 2CP in the 53-54% range which is exactly what I’ve been predicting.
I don’t think that’s being overly optimistic or generous to the Greens, or ignoring circumstances that I have already factored into the -4.5% swing I gave them (and +5% I gave to the Liberals) as a starting point, or ignoring that the Greens will get weaker flows from Labor than they would with a Labor candidate & HTVC which I have also factored in.
I think expecting Labor voters to break any less than around 60-40 in favour of the Greens, just because an IND has the Liberals higher on a HTVC, is overly optimistic for the Liberals.
Honestly I think it’s a bit easier to understand this seat by just looking at it as a straight left-right fight between Greens and Liberal and a 12% margin. All of the primary vote movement below the surface will mostly be irrelevant to that. Generally it seems like the left is holding up better in the inner city than in the outer suburbs, and the Greens can’t be directly blamed for the government’s woes in the way Labor can. I think an 8% swing would be substantial but is quite plausible.
I agree. That gets to the heart of Adda’s comment that most people not giving their primary vote to a major know who which the majors they prefer and will preference, regardless of HTVCs etc.
In that context, all the talk about Tony Lupton, HTVCs and primary votes is noise.
Most voters will go into the booth simply making a Greens v Liberals choice. Exactly as they did in 2022 when 62% chose the Greens over the Liberals.
There are factors that will cause a swing against the Greens, which have been discussed at length already (low turnout, loss of incumbency etc), but you’re right that what it comes down to is simply whether or not the left to right swing will exceed 12%. My prediction is no.
the greens have a suffered though esppecially in the recent local elections particuarly in this area so i think a liberal win cannot be ruled out no matter how fanciful it might seem
The swing in Port Phillip was 2.7%. The main reason they lost seats in Stonnington and Port Phillip was the change to the voting system. Not evidence of some enormous collapse in support.
I’d argue what happened to the Greens in council elections is irrelevant.
a) In Victoria, party names are not even on council ballots so everyone looks like an IND unless you recognise their name;
b) There was a change to single-member wards that in some cases resulted in seat losses where their vote didn’t actually decline, in Port Phillip for example the Greens came second in 4 wards (and 3 of them they lost to other left-wing candidates, including the one that overlaps Prahran where the Greens candidate actually lost to an even more left-wing candidate);
c) In the council elections in general there was a big push to move away from party representation in councils, and towards local independents. This is not reflective of any left/right shift, and is very specific to the council level. Despite this though, I believe in Port Phillip the Greens’ primary vote still only went backwards by around 3%, and that “parties shouldn’t be in local council” factor won’t exist in a state byelection
I think that’s one of the narratives that the media has just latched onto in order to make these byelections (and the council results) interesting and newsworthy. But that same media are also calling Prahran a “three way contest” which it clearly isn’t. Tony Lupton will be lucky to poll double-digits, his chance of making the 2CP is nil.
As I said though, I haven’t “ruled out” a Liberal gain. I’m just not predicting one, because I think a Liberal swing somewhere between 5-12% is more likely than a Liberal swing over 12%.
il be on the streets or Prahan helping the libs this weekend. only reason is its closer and easier to get to then Werribee for me
I’ll be voting Saturday at the St Kilda polling place as it’s closest to me. I like to cast an ordinary vote that counts to my nearest polling place. It’s the psephology nerd in me wanting to contribute to more useful data. 🙂
@trent i prefer to vote on the day too unless i cant for whatever reason. lsat time at fderal election i had to go to adelaide for comic con
I’m expecting the Greens to hold Prahran. The Liberals will have to mazimise their vote along St Kilda Road and the areas around Fawkner Park & Domain, the South Yarra library and Prahran East. The problem the Liberals face is they have not been strong around Windsor and St Kilda East for years and I cannot point to anything that has changed that, even when Peter Costello was the local MP, Windsor was the Liberals weakest booth with a TPP in the mid to high 30’s.