Cause of by-election
Sitting independent MP Sam Hibbins, until recently a member of the Greens, resigned after recently quitting his party due to the revelation of an affair with a staff member.
Margin – GRN 12.0% vs LIB
Incumbent MP
Sam Hibbins, since 2014.
Geography
Inner southern Melbourne. Prahran covers the suburbs of Prahran, South Yarra and Windsor and parts of St Kilda and St Kilda East.
History
Prahran has been a state electorate since 1889. It has alternated between the ALP and conservative parties, before falling to the Greens in 2014.
The ALP first won the seat in 1894, holding it until 1900. Liberal MP Donald Mackinnon held the seat from 1900 to 1920. The ALP and conservative parties alternated in control until the 1930s, with the Liberal Party holding the seat until 1945.
In 1945, the ALP’s William Quirk won the seat, holding it until his death in November 1948. The ensuing by-election in 1949 was won by Frank Crean, who had previously held the seat of Albert Park. He left the seat in 1951 when he moved to the federal seat of Melbourne Ports. He served as a federal MP until 1977, playing a senior role in the Whitlam Labor government.
The 1951 Prahran by-election was won by the ALP’s Robert Pettiona, who held the seat until his defeat in 1955.
Since 1955, Prahran has been won by the ALP only four times. In 1955, the seat was won by Sam Loxton, a Liberal candidate. Loxton was a former test cricketer who had been part of Don Bradman’s Invincibles team and played VFL football for St Kilda.
Loxton held the seat until 1979, when the ALP’s Bob Miller won the seat. He held the seat for two terms, and in 1985 unsuccessfully contested the Legislative Council province of Monash.
The Liberal Party’s Don Hayward won the seat in 1985. He had previously held the upper house seat of Monash from 1979 to 1985. He served as Member for Prahran until the 1996 election.
In 1996, the Liberal Party’s Leonie Burke won Prahran. Burke was defeated in 2002 by the ALP’s Tony Lupton. Lupton was re-elected in 2006.
In 2010, Lupton was defeated by Liberal candidate Clem Newton-Brown.
Prahran produced an unusual result in 2014, with the third-placed Greens candidate Sam Hibbins overtaking both Labor and Liberal candidates to win narrowly.
Hibbins was re-elected in 2018, again coming third on primary votes and then overtaking Labor and Liberal to win.
Hibbins gained a sizeable primary vote swing in 2022, with Labor reduced to a clear third place, and he also increased his majority after preferences.
Hibbins resigned from the Greens in November 2024 due to the revelation of a previous affair with a staff member.
- Nathan Chisholm (Independent)
- Rachel Westaway (Liberal)
- Janine Hendry (Independent)
- Geneviève Gilbert (Family First)
- Alan Menadue (Independent)
- Tony Lupton (Independent)
- Mark Dessau (Libertarian)
- Angelica Di Camillo (Greens)
- Dennis Bilic (Sustainable Australia)
- Buzz Billman (Independent)
- Faith Fuhrer (Animal Justice
Assessment
Prahran has effectively two different axes on which competition takes place – between Labor and Greens to be the leading progressive party, and between those parties and the Liberal Party on the two-candidate-preferred count. The race was close on both axes in 2014. In 2018 the Liberal Party wasn’t competitive but Labor and Greens were still close. In 2022, Hibbins won easily on both.
This seat could be competitive on either axis in Hibbins’ absence, particularly considering the circumstances of his departure.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Sam Hibbins | Greens | 14,286 | 36.4 | +8.1 |
| Matthew Lucas | Liberal | 12,198 | 31.1 | -1.6 |
| Wesa Chau | Labor | 10,421 | 26.6 | -3.9 |
| Alice Le Huray | Animal Justice | 1,263 | 3.2 | +0.9 |
| Ronald Emilsen | Family First | 626 | 1.6 | +1.6 |
| Alan Menadue | Independent | 449 | 1.1 | +0.8 |
| Informal | 1,223 | 3.0 |
2022 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Sam Hibbins | Greens | 24,334 | 62.0 | +3.0 |
| Matthew Lucas | Liberal | 14,909 | 38.0 | -3.0 |
Booths have been divided into three areas: central, north and south.
The Greens topped the primary vote in all three areas, with a vote ranging from 39.1% in hte north to 45.5% in the south.
The Liberal Party came second, with a primary vote ranging from 18% in the south to 29.2% in the north. Labor’s primary vote ranged from 24.5% in the centre to 29.6% in the south, and outpolling Liberal in the south.
The Greens two-candidate-preferred vote against the Liberal Party ranged from 64% in the north to 76.3% in the south.
| Voter group | GRN prim | LIB prim | ALP prim | GRN 2CP | Total votes | % of votes |
| North | 39.1 | 29.2 | 25.9 | 64.0 | 5,206 | 13.3 |
| Central | 43.9 | 26.3 | 24.5 | 68.3 | 3,879 | 9.9 |
| South | 45.5 | 18.0 | 29.6 | 76.3 | 2,865 | 7.3 |
| Pre-poll | 35.4 | 32.7 | 26.6 | 61.1 | 18,980 | 48.3 |
| Other votes | 30.5 | 35.2 | 26.9 | 56.5 | 8,357 | 21.3 |
Election results in Prahran at the 2022 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Greens vs Liberal) and primary votes for the Greens, the Liberal Party and Labor.
‘The Australian’ features food and beverage wholesalers blaming Labor for significant electricity price rises. Part is being passed on to clients.
Many young Prahran electorate renters only live in the area for three or four years, if that, later moving out to buy an apartment elsewhere, marry, or move in with a boyfriend/girlfriend.
They may not be that interested in politics but vaguely know Labor is in government Federally and in Victoria, so price rises can be blamed on it. The Liberal Party is the obvious alternative.
Some will have missed the December cutoff date to (re)enrol in Prahran, adding to predictions of a low turnout when compared to the number of residents, as well as the percentage enrolled.
“They may not be that interested in politics…”
That’s a pretty big stretch. Prahran is not an electorate of low-information voters who the Liberal Party can sucker like they might elsewhere.
The young renters in Prahran are largely educated younger professionals who are well-informed and tend very much Green.
pretty big field here. wouldnt be surprised if the greens lose this but id say grn retain atm.
I agree with Expat, Prahran isn’t a “low information” electorate. It’s an electorate of generally well educated young professionals who rent but are politically engaged and lean Green. It does also have a lot of less educated renters – for example a lot of hospitality workers – but they in particular are also a very Green/progressive leaning demographic.
Given this is pretty much exactly the demographic that even nationally is most likely to support the Greens and least likely to support the Liberals, I wouldn’t agree that “the Liberals are the obvious alternative” to this particular cohort experiencing cost of living pressures. The Greens more likely are, especially since the entire focus of their campaign has pretty much exclusively been on cost of living, whereas the focus of the Liberals’ campaign has been crime.
To an early-20s renter, even a “low information” one (I would probably say especially a “low information” one), seeing a campaign promoting rent caps & 50c public transport is going to resonate more than one promoting COL relief through cutting red tape for businesses.
Regarding enrolment, Prahran’s enrolment has grown since 2022 and I think the council elections only recently happening in late October would probably have mitigated some of the potential enrolment issues because VEC enrolment applies to both.
As I’ve said, there are no doubt a lot of factors that are working against the Greens here: a big budget coordinated attack campaign against them, an ex-Labor MP running in the absence of Labor and supporting the Liberal Party, and the usual issues that come with a byelection including that even the word ‘Prahran’ can possibly make voters in St Kilda (the Greens’ best area) not even realise they need to vote.
All this will equate to a pretty hefty swing against them, but moreso than I think would occur if Labor were running.
But when you think that the demographics of the seat so heavily favour the Greens, with the average Prahran voter having a profile that according to recent polling, has primary Greens support that is +19 compared to the national average and Liberal 2PP support that is -18 compared to the national average, it’s hard to imagine that 2CP swing will be over 12%.
I am tipping an 8-9% 2CP swing from the Greens, but a Greens hold with a 3-4% 2CP margin.
When I say the ‘average Prahran voter having a profile’ I’m referring to an 18-34 year old female according to Redbridge’s polling, which has Greens support at +19 compared to the national figure, and the Liberal 2PP at -18 compared to the national figure.
Obviously not saying all of Prahran’s overall result will be anything close to that! Just that the median Prahran voter has a similar profile to that.