Cause of by-election
Sitting independent MP Sam Hibbins, until recently a member of the Greens, resigned after recently quitting his party due to the revelation of an affair with a staff member.
Margin – GRN 12.0% vs LIB
Incumbent MP
Sam Hibbins, since 2014.
Geography
Inner southern Melbourne. Prahran covers the suburbs of Prahran, South Yarra and Windsor and parts of St Kilda and St Kilda East.
History
Prahran has been a state electorate since 1889. It has alternated between the ALP and conservative parties, before falling to the Greens in 2014.
The ALP first won the seat in 1894, holding it until 1900. Liberal MP Donald Mackinnon held the seat from 1900 to 1920. The ALP and conservative parties alternated in control until the 1930s, with the Liberal Party holding the seat until 1945.
In 1945, the ALP’s William Quirk won the seat, holding it until his death in November 1948. The ensuing by-election in 1949 was won by Frank Crean, who had previously held the seat of Albert Park. He left the seat in 1951 when he moved to the federal seat of Melbourne Ports. He served as a federal MP until 1977, playing a senior role in the Whitlam Labor government.
The 1951 Prahran by-election was won by the ALP’s Robert Pettiona, who held the seat until his defeat in 1955.
Since 1955, Prahran has been won by the ALP only four times. In 1955, the seat was won by Sam Loxton, a Liberal candidate. Loxton was a former test cricketer who had been part of Don Bradman’s Invincibles team and played VFL football for St Kilda.
Loxton held the seat until 1979, when the ALP’s Bob Miller won the seat. He held the seat for two terms, and in 1985 unsuccessfully contested the Legislative Council province of Monash.
The Liberal Party’s Don Hayward won the seat in 1985. He had previously held the upper house seat of Monash from 1979 to 1985. He served as Member for Prahran until the 1996 election.
In 1996, the Liberal Party’s Leonie Burke won Prahran. Burke was defeated in 2002 by the ALP’s Tony Lupton. Lupton was re-elected in 2006.
In 2010, Lupton was defeated by Liberal candidate Clem Newton-Brown.
Prahran produced an unusual result in 2014, with the third-placed Greens candidate Sam Hibbins overtaking both Labor and Liberal candidates to win narrowly.
Hibbins was re-elected in 2018, again coming third on primary votes and then overtaking Labor and Liberal to win.
Hibbins gained a sizeable primary vote swing in 2022, with Labor reduced to a clear third place, and he also increased his majority after preferences.
Hibbins resigned from the Greens in November 2024 due to the revelation of a previous affair with a staff member.
- Nathan Chisholm (Independent)
- Rachel Westaway (Liberal)
- Janine Hendry (Independent)
- Geneviève Gilbert (Family First)
- Alan Menadue (Independent)
- Tony Lupton (Independent)
- Mark Dessau (Libertarian)
- Angelica Di Camillo (Greens)
- Dennis Bilic (Sustainable Australia)
- Buzz Billman (Independent)
- Faith Fuhrer (Animal Justice
Assessment
Prahran has effectively two different axes on which competition takes place – between Labor and Greens to be the leading progressive party, and between those parties and the Liberal Party on the two-candidate-preferred count. The race was close on both axes in 2014. In 2018 the Liberal Party wasn’t competitive but Labor and Greens were still close. In 2022, Hibbins won easily on both.
This seat could be competitive on either axis in Hibbins’ absence, particularly considering the circumstances of his departure.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Sam Hibbins | Greens | 14,286 | 36.4 | +8.1 |
| Matthew Lucas | Liberal | 12,198 | 31.1 | -1.6 |
| Wesa Chau | Labor | 10,421 | 26.6 | -3.9 |
| Alice Le Huray | Animal Justice | 1,263 | 3.2 | +0.9 |
| Ronald Emilsen | Family First | 626 | 1.6 | +1.6 |
| Alan Menadue | Independent | 449 | 1.1 | +0.8 |
| Informal | 1,223 | 3.0 |
2022 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Sam Hibbins | Greens | 24,334 | 62.0 | +3.0 |
| Matthew Lucas | Liberal | 14,909 | 38.0 | -3.0 |
Booths have been divided into three areas: central, north and south.
The Greens topped the primary vote in all three areas, with a vote ranging from 39.1% in hte north to 45.5% in the south.
The Liberal Party came second, with a primary vote ranging from 18% in the south to 29.2% in the north. Labor’s primary vote ranged from 24.5% in the centre to 29.6% in the south, and outpolling Liberal in the south.
The Greens two-candidate-preferred vote against the Liberal Party ranged from 64% in the north to 76.3% in the south.
| Voter group | GRN prim | LIB prim | ALP prim | GRN 2CP | Total votes | % of votes |
| North | 39.1 | 29.2 | 25.9 | 64.0 | 5,206 | 13.3 |
| Central | 43.9 | 26.3 | 24.5 | 68.3 | 3,879 | 9.9 |
| South | 45.5 | 18.0 | 29.6 | 76.3 | 2,865 | 7.3 |
| Pre-poll | 35.4 | 32.7 | 26.6 | 61.1 | 18,980 | 48.3 |
| Other votes | 30.5 | 35.2 | 26.9 | 56.5 | 8,357 | 21.3 |
Election results in Prahran at the 2022 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Greens vs Liberal) and primary votes for the Greens, the Liberal Party and Labor.
Interesting how the trend of comments here has gone from a big Green win to a small Green win.
I would agree with most of the recent comments, that the trend (and other factors) seem to be favouring the Libs.
On the Pollbludger website, there is a poster of note called “nadia88”, who has suggested the Libs will win this seat with a primary in excess of 40%, and a slim 2PP win. She posted this around New years, and she is completely out on a limb as no one on that site (or here) thinks this way. She has, however, a fairly good track record with recent politics and the only reason I raise this is that, on the tally room, the trend of posts seem to be now moving in favour of the Libs, or at the least, the Greens no longer getting a “big win”.
I suppose, caution needs to be exercised on the Greens getting a solid win. Could possibly be a Lib pick up, even if held for only 18 months.
Yeah there’s no way the Liberals could get close to winning this seat in a general election now with all 3 majors running, but this by-election could definitely be close based on all the factors recently discussed that are unique to this situation. I wouldn’t rule out a surprise narrow LIB win, followed by a comfortable Greens win again in 2026.
But I think the Greens still have to be favoured to win it in 3 weeks, just not with a big margin like most of us originally thought.
Greens probably need to do some sort of attack campaign, highlight the recent leadership change in the Libs, and with so many INDs running, couple it with some sort of “Put the Liberals last” materials.
I’m glad you have the stomach for the comments section over at PollBludger. Was that prediction made before Pesutto got rolled?
I certainly had it down as a GRN win because I felt it was a high propensity district that would achieve near full turn-out and the liberals have done nothing this term to win any of their inner city vote back. But that point about turn out and the young renters is definitely one to consider. With 11 candidates on the ballot I’d expect the informal rate to go up as well.
On turnout, it’s probably relevant to note that turnout was way below average here in 2022 as well (only 82%) but the Greens still won with a 12% 2CP margin.
So maybe a degree of low turnout impacting the Greens vote is already reflected in the current margin too, at least to an extent. So it may not be too much of a factor.
In any case, the Greens not taking a win for granted can only be good for them (I know they are looking at what should be a very effective big billboard in a very prominent location), and other than the Liberal candidate herself, the Liberals overall seem to be prioritising Werribee a lot more, and the more palatable Libs like Pesutto abd Southwick appear to have stopped campaigning here. Not sure Westaway having Batton and Renee Heath (yes she was here) by her side will be as effective.
So I do still think the Greens will hold it.
I just think it’ll be a closer result that probably gives the media and Libs false hope that it could be a key or competitive seat in 2026, which it won’t be.
Thanks Maxim, I was just monitoring posts there. There wasn’t much discussion about the Prahran by election (unlike here which has generated in excess of 150 posts). I just noticed that poster I mentioned earlier had suggested a slim lib pick up for prahran, but having said that i now can’t find her post. It was around New years, so just after pesutto got rolled. Thanks trent too, for a very thorough analysis of the area.
I found it, it’s the second last comment on the post called “Passing the Battin”. She commented about 2 days after the leadership change so it was fresh. One person replied to ask the reasoning but there were no more comments after that.
My observation as a local is that the Lib candidate has been out & about quite a lot, but prior to 27 Dec she had Pesutto, Southwick and Crozier with her every time. Since then she has still been out almost every day, but I think she’s only had Crozier once, Battin twice, and other randoms including Renee Heath here and there. It does look like the higher profile Libs have stopped putting anything into it.
Also Southwick was posting a lot of social media about Prahran up to 27 Dec and nothing about the byelection since either. The signs do point to the broader party having stepped away a bit, but the candidate herself seems to be running a pretty decent grassroots style campaign. That could be a deliberate choice to make it more about her and less about the party, to take the spotlight off the narrative of the more conservative leadership team.
The Greens sent out an excellent brochure which I received today, in personally addressed envelopes which reduces the chance of people just throwing it out with junk mail before looking.
It’s one that has a large full page (A4) map of the electorate with markers and comments highlighting the locations of all their specific policies – saving Windsor Childcare Centre, upgrade South Yarra Station, make Windsor Station accessible, extend the protected bike lanes on St Kilda Rd to Elsternwick, $12m to build St Kilda Primary School Hall, prevent demolition of public housing, various policies about Chapel St, prevent closure of Prahran post office, etc.
That sort of brochure is usually effective because it’s so specific and local. Opposite is a full page listing all the policies including the 50c PT fares, making unlimited rent increases illegal, public builder to build 200,000 affordable homes, price cap on essential groceries, etc.
It also clearly frames a Greens vote as the only way to keep the Liberals out, in the absence of a Labor candidate.
I haven’t received any Liberal flyers yet but maybe the Greens corflute on my fence made them skip my letterbox..
The Greens are by far winning the corflute and poster war too, both are everywhere. Only seen 1 Liberal corflute and no posters. Seem some Tony Lupton posters but no corflutes.
I think with a young demographic who may not be that engaged, social media will really be the key to turnout. I don’t have Tik Tok or anything so would have no idea.
Thanks Trent. Yes I can see the post on that thread dated Dec.31, and it’s fresh from the leadership spill which occured four days earlier on Dec.27 (definately post Pesutto)
Really don’t know with the Prahran district seat, it’s going to be a thin margin either way I suppose. Sorry, classic motherhood statement. Perhaps the reasoning was based on how the Fannie bay preferences flowed in the NT election (ie: inner city seat, where the ALP vote collapsed and the Greens came No.2). The preference flow from Labor to the greens was around 61% from memory. Usually it is higher (around 75%), so maybe there is some sort of alienation of Labor voters from the Greens.
In Prahran’s case, we have a 26% ALP vote from last time (which “won’t collapse”, because they’re not standing) but will spray around to all sorts of groups – most likely the Indie ex-Labor member. He’s on record for criticising the current labor gov’t too. I suppose if the Libs can pick up just 10 of that 26 (%), then the Libs would then be in the low 40’s on primary. If the ex-Labor voter preferences start moving to the Libs in similar numbers to what we saw in Fannie Bay (as payback to the Greens), then yes we could see a small Lib win. Not a big win, but a win just the same.
Probably a temp hold until the next election. Could be a very interesting seat to watch.
On the other side of Melbourne, I think Werribee will be a Labor retain, although they will lose some paint, but a retain none the less.
The Labor vote will definitely spray around and so will preferences which is the risk for the Greens.
However, with so many independents on the ballot, I don’t think much of Labor’s vote will end up as a Liberal primary vote. The Labor supporters who don’t like the Greens are more likely to vote IND and preference the Libs I think, which is the same outcome really, but should leak some of those prefs back to the Greens and might keep the Liberal primary under 40%.
One more thing that could be a factor is Labor’s plan to demolish the public housing towers. Those residents would be strongly Labor voting in the past, and that was only announced in 2023. The Greens, particularly the old member Hibbins who had the housing portfolio, very strongly opposed that (as do most residents). So that could win Greens support among a cohort of usual Labor voters. There are at least 7 public housing towers in the seat slated for demolition – 1 in St Kilda, 1 in Windsor, 2 in Prahran and at least 3 in South Yarra at the biggest estate.
I think the Greens will get more of a primary vote benefit from the lack of a Labor candidate than the Libs (should get them over 40%) but preferences could favour the Libs which is where it could get very competitive if the Libs are close to 40% too.
Why is the Poll Bludger comment section bad (not a commenter there sorry)?