Cause of by-election
Sitting independent MP Sam Hibbins, until recently a member of the Greens, resigned after recently quitting his party due to the revelation of an affair with a staff member.
Margin – GRN 12.0% vs LIB
Incumbent MP
Sam Hibbins, since 2014.
Geography
Inner southern Melbourne. Prahran covers the suburbs of Prahran, South Yarra and Windsor and parts of St Kilda and St Kilda East.
History
Prahran has been a state electorate since 1889. It has alternated between the ALP and conservative parties, before falling to the Greens in 2014.
The ALP first won the seat in 1894, holding it until 1900. Liberal MP Donald Mackinnon held the seat from 1900 to 1920. The ALP and conservative parties alternated in control until the 1930s, with the Liberal Party holding the seat until 1945.
In 1945, the ALP’s William Quirk won the seat, holding it until his death in November 1948. The ensuing by-election in 1949 was won by Frank Crean, who had previously held the seat of Albert Park. He left the seat in 1951 when he moved to the federal seat of Melbourne Ports. He served as a federal MP until 1977, playing a senior role in the Whitlam Labor government.
The 1951 Prahran by-election was won by the ALP’s Robert Pettiona, who held the seat until his defeat in 1955.
Since 1955, Prahran has been won by the ALP only four times. In 1955, the seat was won by Sam Loxton, a Liberal candidate. Loxton was a former test cricketer who had been part of Don Bradman’s Invincibles team and played VFL football for St Kilda.
Loxton held the seat until 1979, when the ALP’s Bob Miller won the seat. He held the seat for two terms, and in 1985 unsuccessfully contested the Legislative Council province of Monash.
The Liberal Party’s Don Hayward won the seat in 1985. He had previously held the upper house seat of Monash from 1979 to 1985. He served as Member for Prahran until the 1996 election.
In 1996, the Liberal Party’s Leonie Burke won Prahran. Burke was defeated in 2002 by the ALP’s Tony Lupton. Lupton was re-elected in 2006.
In 2010, Lupton was defeated by Liberal candidate Clem Newton-Brown.
Prahran produced an unusual result in 2014, with the third-placed Greens candidate Sam Hibbins overtaking both Labor and Liberal candidates to win narrowly.
Hibbins was re-elected in 2018, again coming third on primary votes and then overtaking Labor and Liberal to win.
Hibbins gained a sizeable primary vote swing in 2022, with Labor reduced to a clear third place, and he also increased his majority after preferences.
Hibbins resigned from the Greens in November 2024 due to the revelation of a previous affair with a staff member.
- Nathan Chisholm (Independent)
- Rachel Westaway (Liberal)
- Janine Hendry (Independent)
- Geneviève Gilbert (Family First)
- Alan Menadue (Independent)
- Tony Lupton (Independent)
- Mark Dessau (Libertarian)
- Angelica Di Camillo (Greens)
- Dennis Bilic (Sustainable Australia)
- Buzz Billman (Independent)
- Faith Fuhrer (Animal Justice
Assessment
Prahran has effectively two different axes on which competition takes place – between Labor and Greens to be the leading progressive party, and between those parties and the Liberal Party on the two-candidate-preferred count. The race was close on both axes in 2014. In 2018 the Liberal Party wasn’t competitive but Labor and Greens were still close. In 2022, Hibbins won easily on both.
This seat could be competitive on either axis in Hibbins’ absence, particularly considering the circumstances of his departure.
Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
Sam Hibbins | Greens | 14,286 | 36.4 | +8.1 |
Matthew Lucas | Liberal | 12,198 | 31.1 | -1.6 |
Wesa Chau | Labor | 10,421 | 26.6 | -3.9 |
Alice Le Huray | Animal Justice | 1,263 | 3.2 | +0.9 |
Ronald Emilsen | Family First | 626 | 1.6 | +1.6 |
Alan Menadue | Independent | 449 | 1.1 | +0.8 |
Informal | 1,223 | 3.0 |
2022 two-candidate-preferred result
Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
Sam Hibbins | Greens | 24,334 | 62.0 | +3.0 |
Matthew Lucas | Liberal | 14,909 | 38.0 | -3.0 |
Booths have been divided into three areas: central, north and south.
The Greens topped the primary vote in all three areas, with a vote ranging from 39.1% in hte north to 45.5% in the south.
The Liberal Party came second, with a primary vote ranging from 18% in the south to 29.2% in the north. Labor’s primary vote ranged from 24.5% in the centre to 29.6% in the south, and outpolling Liberal in the south.
The Greens two-candidate-preferred vote against the Liberal Party ranged from 64% in the north to 76.3% in the south.
Voter group | GRN prim | LIB prim | ALP prim | GRN 2CP | Total votes | % of votes |
North | 39.1 | 29.2 | 25.9 | 64.0 | 5,206 | 13.3 |
Central | 43.9 | 26.3 | 24.5 | 68.3 | 3,879 | 9.9 |
South | 45.5 | 18.0 | 29.6 | 76.3 | 2,865 | 7.3 |
Pre-poll | 35.4 | 32.7 | 26.6 | 61.1 | 18,980 | 48.3 |
Other votes | 30.5 | 35.2 | 26.9 | 56.5 | 8,357 | 21.3 |
Election results in Prahran at the 2022 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Greens vs Liberal) and primary votes for the Greens, the Liberal Party and Labor.
@Nimalan, given Peter Dutton starting to wedge to some No Voters about the Indigenous Flags and potentially Welcome to the Country next, I assume there will be no longer Bipartisian use of the flags and WtC and which leaders greater resentment to use them.
@ Marh
I agree with you on that, i suspect he is playing to white working class voters in the Hunter Seats and Blair which have low margins rather than ethnic working class seats where there is less interest and a lower “No” vote. The seat of Spence had a very high No vote and while i suspect there will be a swing to Libs it is no where near enough to win the seat which so economically deprived.
The Greens would be smart to make Dutton a focus of their Prahran by-election campaign.
While voters are usually very good at discerning state from federal, a byelection happening not only outside a broader state election campaign (which itself reduces the influence of the state leaders), but at the same time as a federal election campaign (increasing the visibility of the federal leader), will no doubt have an impact when it comes to voters associating the parties with their federal leader moreso than they usually would during a state election.
While I agree with your last sentence @Trent, that is not really what I am talking about. To take a fairly benign example, no one asked for ‘Welcome to Country’ at sporting and cultural events. They sort of just appeared. No one really knew what to make of them, but once some got a bit more political it became ‘I don’t go the footy to be lectured on the evils of colonialism’. Now Melbourne Storm are pulling back from having them at every match, and the overwhelming response is ‘Meh’.
This is one example, and as I said pretty benign, but there are lots and lots of these out there, and some of the more radical actions get pushback, and when they do the response is often ‘why are you perpetuating a culture war?’, ignoring that it was the left that fired the first shot, so to speak.
That is a response to a bit further up the thread obvs.
@ MLV
Is there a particular issue that you would like to raise that concerns you that you would like to raise that you feel are more radical. I have criticized the Far Left on a few things like you would have seen above in my comments.
BC/AD vs BCE/CE is mostly not a debate on culture. Different parts of the world have often used different notations, some Jewish communities adopted the use of VE (Vulgar Era) and CE (Christian Era) as a way of referencing Christian years as opposed to their own year system.
Different types of notation systems have existed for hundreds of years in different places so that two different year systems could be used by various religious or cultural groups.
It’s mostly a question of style and what each publication thinks is clearer or more academically correct. The same as each publication decides how they apply use of commas and spelling choices (US vs UK spelling etc).
The main advantage of BCE/CE is that it is more consistent across different languages because BC/AD is a different abbreviation in many languages such as northern Europe where Christ is spelled with a K.
Just wanted to make that clear that it’s never been a culture war/Woke thing.
Oh, and I was tossing up between welcome to country and three flags as an obvious example of left wing culture wars.
I guess I just don’t see either as a culture war. Anything that even makes one person feel more accepted, but doesn’t harm a single person in the process, just seems like natural positive progression to me.
If the actions aren’t going out of their way to negatively impact, harm or disadvantage somebody, and is simply including more people, that’s not really a culture war.
I’d define a culture war as something where there are competing interests and the outcome would necessitate that one side has to be (or at least feel) disadvantaged at the expense of the other.
If someone was to actually ban Christmas celebrations – something I have never actually seen happen in reality, it’s usually a faux outrage about nothing – that would qualify as a culture war.
Similarly, items in the religious discrimination bill about what religious schools are or aren’t allowed to do are something I can genuinely see as being a culture war too because someone has to give something up. As a non-religious person I may not agree at all that religious schools should be able to discriminate based on something I don’t believe in, but I can reasonably see how they would think it attacks their faith-based rights.
But a Welcome to Country or the use of indigenous flags literally harms, divides or disadvantages no one, so in those cases I really only see the backlash as a culture war as that is trying to unnecessarily make it an issue (mostly for political gain) that it’s really not.
@ MLV/Trent
Is the Republic/potentially changing the National Flag a culture war it was Paul Keating who started it. Paul Keating also was not interested in Anzac Day/Gaillipoli and wanted to shift focus to Kokoda was that the reason Labor lost Lindsay in 1996?
Considering how front & centre Pesutto and Southwick -both likely to lose their leadership positions within a week – have been to the Libs’ campaign here, in light of the recent events and impending leadership spill, I see the Greens probably getting closer to a 60-40 2CP now.
I saw the Libs campaigning in St Kilda yesterday – Pesutto, Southwick, Crozier and the candidate Westaway – and nobody was talking to them, and everyone declining their material.
Yet there are Greens corflutes everywhere, not just in the St Kilda area but also walked through Windsor and Prahran today and saw heaps. Mostly on fences of expensive houses too (and renters in flats are even more likely to vote Greens than people in $2m+ detached Victorian houses).
Expectations post Liberal leadership spill?
More comfortable win for the Greens now. Perhaps not double digits still, but closer to 60-40 than 55-45.
I originally predicted a Greens 2CP in the 56-57% range and would probably increase that to maybe 58-59% now.
Also, it seemed like the leadership trip of Pesutto, Southwick and Crozier were heavily involved in the campaign, Rachel Westaway seemed to have them with her at every appearance.
I doubt that’ll be the case now and that alone will halt any momentum they may have had.
The Greens will be taking a 50c public transport policy to the 2026 Victorian election similar to QLD last year. The Prahran candidate Angelica Di Camillo is unveiling it this weekend as part of the byelection campaign.
@trent they wouldn’t win it anyway losing by 5% or 10 is the same thing.
Looks like a second independent has thrown their hat in the ring in Prahran:
https://www.janinehendry.com.au/
Hard to tell from the blurb where she would fit politically. The website says she’s a “community independent” with a “sensible centre path”, but she looks to be mostly progressive with a focus on social justice, inequality and violence against women.
So far the VEC website only lists 3 candidates: Westaway, Lupton and Hendry. It doesn’t look like Angelia Di Camillo has nominated yet.
Green retain
Easy GRN retain, a Liberal win probably further de-stabilises the new order under Battin and I suspect with Werribee now on the same day they’ll abandon this front
I agree. Battin’s shadow cabinet announcement and list of priorities is clearly targeting the outer suburbs, and he only even mentioned “focusing on the Werribee byelection”.
Other than the day after he became leader, he hasn’t been back in this seat to my knowledge. Pesutto who was with Rachel Westaway at every appearance right up until the leadership spill hasn’t been back either, and either has Southwick (who was also with her & Pesutto at every previous appearance) despite holding the seat next door.
All this tells me the Liberals have stopped prioritising this and basically left Rachel Westaway to her own devices to focus instead on Werribee.
A significant swing to the Liberals in Werribee but only a small one in Prahran will help reinforce the conservative wing’s narrative that the leadership change and readmittance of Deeming was the right choice because the outer suburbs are the path forward. And as long as they still get a small swing in Prahran – which in the absence of a Labor candidate and loss of Greens incumbency they probably will – it also allows them to argue that the change to Battin / readmittance of Deeming hasn’t hurt them in the inner suburbs either.
I think that’s the scenario they’re hoping for.
Agreed, no pathway to power for the Liberals in Victoria if they can’t hang on to Hawthorn, Kew, Caulfield etc so can’t really afford to go backwards.
I think Hawthorn & Caulfield will be hard to hold on their very narrow margins if Pesutto & Southwick both choose not to recontest them, and voters in those seats perceive the Liberal Party to have driven them out. They could very well punish the Libs for that at the ballot box.
Jess Wilson will be fine in Kew and probably increase her margin. But if I were the Liberals I’d be very worried about the prospect of Pesutto and/or Southwick opting not to recontest because losing those 2 seats means they need to gain 19 seats elsewhere, instead of 17.
Another independent candidate is running in Prahran.
Buzz Billman. Actor and railway worker.
Website: https://www.buzz4prahran.com/
That’s 3 now. 1 ex- Labor (Lupton), 1 ex-Greens (Billman) and the other (Hendry) appears to have a progressive leaning too.
6 News interview with Lupton
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gJRmCF2Hl88
This and social media posts indicate a significant dlslike for the Greens
who Lupton accuses of being obsessed with international matters or
those they’d need to be in government to change (eg PT fares).
ANOTHER Prahran candidate. Dennis Bilic from Sustainable Australia.
https://www.sustainableaustralia.org.au/2025_prahran
This could get interesting
Dennis Bilic ran in 2018 as well and got 1.16%.
I think a lot of these candidates are just noise but ultimately it’ll help the Greens.
The biggest spanner in the works for the Greens was Labor not running, which was a ~25% vote from which around 85% of those preferences would go to the Greens. But not having Labor as a choice and only choosing between Greens or Libs as #1, wouldn’t have broken that strongly for them because there’d probably be a significant cohort of Labor voters happy to preference them above Libs but would want to put them #1.
I think this field of independents – especially Lupton who they’d identify with Labor, but also Hendry & Billman who are progressive – now gives them that choice to put someone else first and still put the Libs last.
Whatever Lupton does on a HTV probably won’t have much impact because I don’t think adherence to HTVs is very high for independents, and also none of them will get a significant vote anyway.
Given it will be a cohort of Labor voters, I expect those preferences from the independents to go much stronger to the Greens than Libs. Not the 85% you’d get with a Labor HTV card but at least 65%.
Also there’d probably be a significant portion of the Labor voters (the more progressive ones) who’d just put the Greens first anyway without a Labor candidate.
Watching Tony Lupton’s interview he seems to just be repeating a lot of perceptions that aren’t really based in reality.
I am a Greens supporter myself to make that clear, so I’m not pretending to be impartial, but the local (Prahran / Macnamara) Greens, objectively based on all their social media activity, leaflets and events, have the following list of policies & priorities:
– Second station entrance at South Yarra;
– Accessible tram stops on the 78 & 6 trams;
– Replace the St Kilda Primary community hall that Labor demolished;
– Save the public housing towers from demolition;
– Save Windsor childcare centre from being closed & sold off;
– Freeze & cap rents (Prahran has the highest % of renters in the state);
– Climate action (which impacts everyone and is a high priority for the Prahran demographic);
– 50c fares and trains/trams no less than every 10 minutes from 7am-7pm in a seat with very high PT usage
More recently, things they have actually done that relate to the above include:
– Led the successful campaign to save 4 Port Phillip childcare centres from closure;
– Had a second station entrance added to Prahran;
– Protected bike lanes on St Kilda Rd which runs through the seat
To support these sorts of things too, as I’ve mentioned before, even unelected they have run renters’ rights workshops and run baby clothes swap meets at childcare centres they are trying to save, to simultaneously help families with cost of living pressures and campaign to save the childcare centres themselves.
Now, whether you agree with any of those policies or not, how are they not “focusing on local issues” like Lupton says? The Prahran & Macnamara Greens have really not focused at all on international issues and have been very locally focused.
His criticism that being on the crossbench means they’re powerless to do anything also applies to him. Fact is, Labor have a majority, so a LIB or IND MP would have no more sway than a Greens one would. But in fact, a Greens MP would have more influence, because Labor do need Greens support to pass bills in the upper house. And looking ahead to 2026, there’s a much bigger chance of the result being a Labor minority (losing 10-16 seats) than there is of a Coalition majority (Liberals gaining 17 seats) in Victoria, in which case a Greens MP would have considerable influence.
@trent as a liberal supporter I’m also of the view that the state greens are far less radical
Two more independents now for Prahran, it’s looking like it will be a crowded ballot paper! One of them no surprise at all since he is a serial candidate:
Alan Menadue – He has been on the ballot for every Prahran, Higgins & Stonnington election for a decade and only ever gets a tiny vote.
Nathan Chisholm – Interesting one as he is the current principal of Prahran High School. His website is the colour teal, and he describes himself as fiscally responsible and socially progressive. So, basically the teal candidate. His policy & About Me has a real focus on local engagement and accountability.
So that’s 8 candidates announced so far (6 of them listed on the VEC website):
Angelica Di Camillo – Greens
Rachel Westway – Liberal
Tony Lupton – Independent / Ex-Labor MP
Janine Hendry – Independent (seems centrist to progressive)
Nathan Chisholm – Independent (Prahran High principal / Teal)
Alan Menadue – Independent (serial candidate, no idea of his ideology)
Dennis Billic* – Sustainable Australia
Buzz Billman* – Independent / Ex-Greens
* These last two have announced candidacy but are not yet registered with the VEC.
9th candidate registered now:
Faith Fuhrer – Animal Justice Party
An AJP candidate was always to be expected. 9 candidates matches the 2018 ballot which I think was the biggest ever for Prahran.
Two more right-wing minors added this morning. Big ballot, so far 11 total candidates declared, 10 of them listed as registered on the VEC website.
Angelica Di Camillo – Greens
Rachel Westway – Liberal
Tony Lupton – Independent / Ex-Labor MP
Janine Hendry – Independent (seems centrist to progressive)
Nathan Chisholm – Independent (Prahran High principal / Teal)
Alan Menadue – Independent (serial candidate, no idea of his ideology)
Faith Fuhrer – Animal Justice Party
Dennis Billic – Sustainable Australia
Mark Dessau – Libertarian Party
Geneviève Gilbert – Family First Party
Buzz Billman* – Independent / Ex-Greens
* Buzz Billman is not yet listed on the VEC website.
Party nominations close in about 2 hours; independent nominations close at 12pm tomorrow followed by a ballot draw. Then HTVC registrations open on Monday 20 January. It’ll be interesting to see what Tony Lupton (the only IND who will likely get a primary vote over 5%) does, my guess is he’ll have an open ticket. It’s not in his best interest to be seen as “funnelling preferences” to either the Liberals or Greens.
The crowded field of 5 independents and 4 minor party candidates will no doubt harm Tony Lupton’s vote I think. I never predicted it would crack double-digits but especially so now.
Nathan Chisholm would seem to have a chance of getting a reasonable vote. As a high school principal in the local area he would have visibility with a large number of that community. He might be able to turn out large numbers of volunteers as well.
Seems to me there are a simply too many independents with credibility running for any one of them to do any damage though, likely too that most of the votes they get will find their way back to the greens too. Hearing from the ground that only the Liberals and Greens seem to be taking this one seriously at all, even Lupton has no real ground game apparently.
I agree, I was thinking the same. He’d likely have a large chunk of the school community behind him, and I believe the entire school zone is within the seat because I believe the southern boundary of the zone runs along Alma Road in St Kilda & St Kilda East which is entirely within the seat of Prahran.
He should do the second best out of the independents after Lupton.
I’d be expecting Lupton to probably get around 6-7%, Chisholm to maybe get around 4-5% and the other independents in such a crowded field will likely have a 0 or 1 in front of the decimal point. Likewise, the Libertarians, Sustainable Australia and Family First will probably have a 1 in front of the decimal point too. AJP will probably be in the 2-3% range.
@Maxim I agree. He has a few volunteers and there have been a few posters put up now, but I’m thinking 6-7% is a maximum for him especially on a large ballot. Nobody is going to even get close to threatening to get into a 2CP.
I think there’s probably a significant cohort of Labor voters who have no problem putting the Greens ahead of the Liberals, but just don’t like the idea of putting the Greens #1. This field of independents will probably help the Greens get those votes via preferences.
Independents aren’t good at getting HTVCs out there like major parties are, and adherence to them is low (probably for that reason). The Greens may not get such a strong flow of preferences without a Labor HTVC, but Labor voters are in the habit of putting the Greens ahead of the Liberals and that will likely be the default position.
If there’s a 20% ‘Other’ vote, I’d expect it to break something like 13-7 in favour of the Greens (if that was a Labor vote it’d be more like 17-3).
I also think that out of the Labor voters who just give their #1 to either the Greens or Liberals, the Greens will clearly get more of that cohort too. Any Labor voter who would preference the Liberals ahead of the Greens, is more likely to give their #1 to an independent and then preference the Liberals, than the other way around where there’s probably a significant number of progressive Labor voters who will just see a crowded ballot of INDs, not know who’s who, and just give their #1 to the Greens.
I realised that sounds pretty confusing and contradictory.
What I’m basically saying is that if you assume there would have been a 25% Labor vote with no candidate to vote for:
– Only a small portion of them would usually put the Liberals ahead of the Greens. These voters are more likely to vote for an IND first and then preference the Liberals.
– Around half of the remainder will be more progressive Labor voters, who seeing a crowded ballot of independents and not really knowing who’s who will just put the Greens #1;
– And the other half would be the cohort I spoke of which is Labor voters who are happy to preference the Greens but can’t bring themselves to put them #1, they will vote for people like Lupton or Chisholm but the majority of them will still return their vote to the Greens via preferences
With the absence of Labor, past Labor voters will go off in different directions. We might see a higher-than-normal primary vote for AJP, SAP and FFP, like at various other by-elections where a major party is absent. If DLP were running, they’d pick up a good share of primary votes (like at the Warrandyte by-election) due to the name confusion.
While Labor voters’ preferences would normally end up about 85-15 with the Greens, with the hostility the Greens have shown towards Labor in this Federal term I would expect only about 70% of normal Labor votes to end up with the Greens here, even though its a state byelection, its turned a lot of Labor people off the Greens, and with no risk of the Liberals forming government some might like to see the Greens lose the seat.
@Adam, yeah my predictions have been based on an even more conservative split of the Labor vote only ending up going about 65-35 in favour of the Greens after preferences.
I don’t think the Liberals will get much at all of that in the form of primary votes, they are more likely to come via independents and minor parties first; whereas out of the 65% that ends up with the Greens, they’ll get at least a portion of that as primary votes (progressive Labor voters who don’t know who all the independents are so just put Greens #1).
If you assume there was a 26% Labor vote (as per 2022), I think that’ll break down as something like:
– 2% to Liberals as primary vote
– 7% to Liberals via preferences from IND/Minors
– 7% to Greens as primary vote
– 10% to Greens via preferences from IND/Minors
Something along those lines. Which would be a 17-9 split (around 65-35). That’s a conservative estimate, it is just as likely to be closer to or just above 70-30.
On another note, Buzz Billman only has about 2.5 hours before nominations close for independents, he’s still not listed as a candidate on the VEC page yet.
Nominations closed and ballot draw complete. Here’s the ballot order:
CHISHOLM, Nathan (Independent)
WESTAWAY, Rachel (Liberal)
HENDRY, Janine (Independent)
GILBERT, Genevieve (Family First)
MENADUE, Alan (Independent)
LUPTON, Tony (Independent)
DESSAU, Mark (Libertarian)
DI CAMILLO, Angelica (Greens)
BILIC, Dennis (Sustainable Australia)
BILLMAN, Buzz (Independent)
FUHRER, Faith (Animal Justice Party)
Good ballot draw for the conservative side with the Greens, ex-Greens Independent and AJP all in the bottom 4, but I don’t expect much of a donkey vote in a highly educated (53% university educated) and politically engaged inner-city seat anyway.
Speaking with some Greens Volunteers I was campaigning with on Wednesday, they are concerned about turnout. The thinking is that turnout goes down at by elections and the Greens will be worst affected because their base is young and not nessicarily as noticing political happenings.
The turnout might be an issue as well. It was only 82.7% at the general election. One imagines younger and/or less engaged voters not turning up. No absentee votes either.
I would have thought a district such as Prahran is a little less liable to that, if I was Labor in Werribee I’d be more concerned on that account
Interesting that the greens believe they are capturing low propensity vote though, perhaps new/lapsed enrolments in terms of renters moving about would be the concern?
Yeah that’s a point. All those factors do favour the Liberals and point to a much closer result than you’d usually see at a general election in this seat now.
I’m thinking the Greens 2CP might be as low as 53-54 now. I still think 12% is a huge ask for the Liberals, but with so many factors in their favour – no Labor vote for the Greens to get a solid 85% of preferences, byelection so no risk of Liberal government, much more visible and focused Liberal campaign than in 2022, loss of incumbency for Greens, potential low turnout – it could easily wipe a good 8% off the Greens margin.
I think at the 2026 election it will get much closer to a double-digit margin again (if not exceed double digits again). Also if by some chance Rachel Westaway manages to win, she will only hold the seat for 20 months and certainly lose it in 2026 at a normal election, with Labor running.
One thing I was thinking about that disadvantages the Greens here is that they really never run attack campaigns against opponents, at least not to the level Labor & Liberal attack each other. The extent of Greens attacks is their pamphlets saying the major parties have let us down etc, but they don’t run specific attack campaigns.
That means, at a general election, they actually have the LIB & ALP attack campaigns against each other indirectly helping them, as voters are seeing countless posters & ads attacking the major party candidates and leaders, allowing the Greens to more gently present a positive campaign of “Well we’re here as an alternative”. In a byelection that doesn’t have one of the majors running, there is no Labor attack campaign against the Liberals to help them there.
So this could certainly be close due to all those factors. I think the Greens really need to get that electoral roll and mass-text everybody multiple times about the date to get turnout as high as possible. Meanwhile the Liberals probably don’t want to do that because low turnout favours them.
@Maxim, yeah I think it is young (18-24) renters who are probably newer to the area that are the concern because they’re a reliable bloc of Greens voters.
I can’t be the only one who did a double take at the AJP candidate’s name. “Faith Fuhrer”? I had to google that to see if it was real.
There’s an interesting point about the Greens not attacking their opponents. When they do attacks, it’s aimed at both major parties. Since Labor is abstaining, there’s more positive messaging from both the Greens and Liberals (from what I’ve seen and heard), rather than attacking each other..
@Bird of paradox, Fuhrer means leader in German. Not sure if her surname is German or is a coincidentally a German word.