Prahran by-election, 2025

On this topic, because I think coming into both this Prahran byelection and Macnamara in the federal election there is a lot of discussion around the impact of the war on the Greens vote in this area, I have just looked at the religion by SA1 data to break down the Jewish population in the St Kilda & St Kilda East area into different sections.

It’s not so relevant for federal elections because it’s all in Macnamara anyway (although it is useful in redistribution topics because it highlights why Hotham St makes a great boundary), but it’s very relevant when discussing the Prahran byelection, to avoid overstating the impact of the Israel war or even actually focusing on the wrong part of the seat when talking about it.

Here is the Jewish population in each of these areas based on SA1 data:

ST KILDA (west of St Kilda Rd, in Albert Park district) – 2.0%
ST KILDA (east of St Kilda Rd, in Prahran district) – 2.8%
ST KILDA EAST (Port Phillip, west of Hotham, in Prahran district) – 6.7%
ST KILDA EAST (Port Phillip, east of Hotham, in Caulfield district) – 15.1%
ST KILDA EAST (Glen Eira, in Caulfield district) – 56.5%
BALACLAVA (entirely in Caulfield district) – 11.7%
RIPPONLEA (entirely in Caulfield district) – 12.7%

If I look at the 2023 federal enrolment numbers that overlap Prahran district there are around 46,000 enrolled voters, and the Jewish population for the seat is 2.7%. Certainly above average, but not in a meaningful way that would actually harm the Greens.

More interestingly, and related more to my post above and comments from journalists like Annika Smethurst stating that the Greens’ stance on Israel might hurt them in the “southern end of the seat” (which would refer to St Kilda & St Kilda East), here is the estimated number of Jewish voters per suburb in this seat, noting these numbers differ from above after looking at SA1s data properly:

SOUTH YARRA – 325
PRAHRAN – 309
WINDSOR – 203
ST KILDA EAST – 189
ST KILDA – 124
MELBOURNE – 73
SOUTHBANK – 26

I just thought that was interesting because for all of the focus on the “southern end” (mostly implying St Kilda East), I think a lot of people would be surprised to see just how small the actual Jewish population is there.

And demographically, I don’t think there’s any reason to believe the non-Jewish population in this seat would be any more turned off by the Greens’ stance on Gaza than any other seat. I’d actually argue the opposite as it’s a young, progressive and mostly non-religious seat.

John Pesutto announced that the Liberals will be running a candidate in this seat.

@Trent I think a lot of non-Jewish voters will be turned off by the Greens too though like they were in Queensland.

I feel the proximity to the federal camapign is symbiotic for the Greens’ fortunes in both. It will overlap perfectly with the ground war to win Macnamara, without requiring much extra in terms of resources. The Liberals don’t have the same incentive to go hard, but them just being present might win the favour of some ALP/Lib swing voters (which would help GRN leapfrog ALP in Macnamara.)

So long as they don’t invite drama with their candidate choice, this should be a comfortable retain – mid-high single digits. Demographic should avoid the swing to the Libs that is probably biting in the outer suburbs, and no scope for NIMBY-type local issues that could help the Libs in the blue-ribbon areas.

@ Votante
Yeah VS took advantage of anger post pandemic. VS is not left-conservative and is socially progressive they often were able to select candidates that lived locally and looked like the target demographic. I think COL crisis will benefit them. Kos Samaras has said there is anger over this in working class outer suburbs but the voters dont want the Liberals and are looking for alternatives. As i mentioned they are not looking to win tree torys sea changers etc like the Greens do so narrowcast the demographic to students/poor ethnic areas.

100% agree with your assessment BenM.

Greens have already been going very hard here. I live where Prahran and Macnamara overlap. Lots of Sonya Semmens corflutes already. They have hosted renters’ rights workshops (in this same Prahran/Macnamara overlap area), baby clothes swaps (also in this same overlap area, in addition to others nearby in Elwood), are hosting a big free community BBQ and “Family Day” at St Kilda Botanical Gardens only a few mins walk from the boundary of this seat on Sunday, so in addition to door knocking and advertising, have also been running events for the general public.

Demographics of this seat, not to mention boundaries, are not what they were in 2014, the last time it was close.

NIMBY issues are a non-factor because it’s a high density area full of renters that people move to because they want density and city lifestyle. Do no NIMBY backlash against Labor’s activity centres (which this seat doesn’t even have anyway) for the Libs to latch onto or side with.

The Greens lost seats at council elections mostly due to the change in single member wards but their vote actually didn’t really go backwards.

Where it did, for example the overlapping Alma Ward in Port Phillip, they actually lost to an even more left-wing independent; they finished first and second and the 2CP was between them.

I totally agree that this and the Macnamara campaign pretty much overlapping will really help the Greens fortunes, in both elections. The fact the Greens have already been campaigning so hard here means they have a head start for the Prahran by-election (and remember, most of this seat is now in the federal seat of Melbourne where the federal Libs won’t campaign at all), and on the other hand, the Greens and Libs campaigning for Prahran will help both in Macnamara which helps the Greens’ chances of making the 2CP.

@NP – I don’t think Israel specifically would hurt the Greens seat anymore here than elsewhere among non-Jewish voters, on average probably less than other seats due to a demographic more likely to support Palestine (predominantly young, left-leaning atheists). A lot of Israel’s support outside the Jewish community is Christian and this seat is has a very below average Christian population.

@ Trent
I agree with you regarding the Israel and the impact on this seat. You are correct that outside the Jewish community the main support for Israel is the Christian right (those who support Family First, Moira Deeming, Alex Antic etc) which does not really exist is in this seat and if they were a few probably did not vote Greens last time for other issues not relating to foreign policy. Right-wing Nationalists such as One Nation are Pro-Israel even though i very much doubt many Jews intend to vote for them. However, the demographic that supports Pauline Hanson does not exist in Prahran and very little in Greater Melbourne compared to other parts of Australia.

If you go to a place like Fitzroy, Brunswick, Collingwood etc even though these areas are becoming whiter with gentrification many people will be Pro-Palestine even though they are Anglo Atheists who drink alcohol, eat pork, may have had children out of wedlock. Lidia Thorpe will be warmly received in places like Fitzroy and her comments on White Privilege etc will not offend White people.

*will not offend White people in Fitzroy, Brunswick etc

And Prahran’s demographic is very similar. Culturally it may not be as activist left-wing as the inner-north, but it’s dominated by young, non-religious renters who move to the area because it is full of bars, clubs & nightlife.

I feel like the media often mischaracterises it based on its former boundaries (like Annika Smethurst did yesterday), and defines the seat by the old stereotypes of South Yarra & Toorak rather than Prahran, Windsor, St Kilda and a South Yarra that is now younger, denser and more progressive.

@ Trent
I think a lot of commentators are not engaged enough and think the Greens/Western Left’s support for Palestine started after October 7 and before that the Greens/Western Left were neutral. If anyone bothers to look through previous Macnamara/Melbourne Ports tallyroom threads they will realize the Israel is mentioned since 2010 in every election. Israel was discussed even in the Caulfield thread before the Victorian state election. In 2019, Ben locked the Macnamara thread as people got emotional about the Israel-Palestine conflict . Whilst as i have already mentioned repeatedly i dont want to state who i think is morally right or wrong in the conflict. A lot of people keep dragging unrelated issues such as Abortion into this debate. Also i dont think the Greens base is actually wealthy Professional women who went to Private Girls Schools and grew up in Teal areas, i think that is a demographic that the Greens have picked up in the absence of a Teal in some seats especially in Brisbane. The Core base of the Greens are young renters many often work in non-professional low paid inner city jobs such as bar tenders, cafe workers, hotel receptionists, Cloakroom attendant etc.

I still think the Liberals will finish first and the Greens will win on preferences (if Labor was running I’d guarantee it), similar to Maiwar. But it’ll be close on primaries simply because there’s no Labor candidate.

A big risk to the Greens (and the prospect would have the Liberals salivating) is the DLP running, with Labor absent.

The DLP using the word “Labour” as part of its HTVs, then recommending preferences to the Liberal & handing out at every prepoll & booth, could flip it.

The Green will be the de facto Labor candidate.
The DLP running is an indicator they expect pro abortion propaganda to flood Prahran during the campaign.
If it works, then it’ll be done at the Federal election.
If there’s a boilover in Prahran, Labor are in trouble everywhere.

@ Andrew 3040
I think the risk of the DLP is actually quite low for a couple of reasons
1. Prahran is a highly educated and engaged electorate, high levels of english proficiency and people dont actually need a HTV to cast a formal vote so a typical Labor vote will pick that up quite easily
2. The DLP is notorious for bad preference discipline even when they do run they recommend a second preference for the Libs. However, in practice it does not happen for example in Melton 59% DLP preferences went to Labor over Libs against the HTV. https://antonygreen.com.au/vic22-melton-analysis-of-preferences.
3. Even in the 2019 federal election when DLP ran it is preference flow went 60:40 in favour of the ALP so these days it little use to the Libs
4. The DLP membership is ageing and i dont know if they will have enough volunteers to staff all booths etc. The DLP HTV is also yellow not Red so the only people who may get confused are refugees who live in housing commission.

It is for this reason, the DLP is not a major asset that help Libs in the Red Wall these days let alone Prahran.

I think the reason DLP preferences often flow to Labor is because of the word “Labour” in their name. Similarly, before they changed their name to the Libertarian Party, she party that used to be called the Liberal Democrats preferenced the Coalition and their voters overwhelmingly followed to the Coalition (more so than One Nation and UAP voters) and often even went to the Coalition before other right-wing minor parties (even though they preferences the UAP second as part of a preference deal at the last federal election and then One Nation third) because of the word “Liberal” in their name. Even though both the Libertarians (and their predecessor the Liberal Democrats) and the DLP both use yellow whereas the Coalition is blue (Liberal is blue, National is green) and Labor is red.

@Nimalan – “The Core base of the Greens are young renters many often work in non-professional low paid inner city jobs such as bar tenders, cafe workers, hotel receptionists, Cloakroom attendant etc.”

100% agree and that sums up a huge chunk of Prahran’s demographic perfectly too. Also a lot of people, because it includes South Yarra and is close to Toorak & Armadale, think of it very differently to how it actually is.

@NP – I agree with you that with Labor running, the Liberals would have topped the primary vote, but probably only by about 2-3% (I predicted something like maybe 36-33 or 35-32). With Labor out though, the Green should pretty comfortably win the primary vote because I’d estimate that in the absence of a high profile IND, they’d probably split at least 60-25-15 or something (GRN-LIB-OTH).

So, say we we were looking at the following primary votes if Labor actually ran:
35% LIB
32% GRN
25% ALP
8% OTH

I’d estimate with Labor sitting it out, that would probably turn into around:
47% GRN
41% LIB
12% OTH

It’s very hard to see the Liberals outpolling the Greens on primary votes in Labor’s absence, in a Greens heartland seat where their existing primary vote is 36% and they typically get around 85% of Labor preferences.

Sorry to clarify the above, I’m saying the Labor primary vote would probably split 60-25-15 in those 3 directions.

@Trent I reckon 57.5% TCP for the Greens, which is a –4.5% swing against them and to the Liberals.

It will be interesting to see if any booths flip or not.

I think some of the South Yarra booths and probably Orrong will at least flip on primary vote (Greens won the PV in every booth in 2022), Orrong and maybe the Fawkner Park & Hawksburn area booths might flip on 2CP too. Although I think any booth that flips to the Libs would remain within the 50-55 range so nowhere near enough to counter the bigger Greens margins in the south.

@Trent I agree, as I said the result is obviously gonna be a Greens retain but there will be a swing against them.

Just had a look at John Pesutto’s Instagram story, today he was at South Yarra Station in the seat of Prahran campaigning on the it’s time factor for the Victorian Labor government talking about “10 years of Labor’s failures”. He says that he has received a positive reception, which may indicate that something could happen in South Yarra at the by-election.

It’s not an easy task to flip all of South Yarra though. Having a look at Higgins, in 2022 the Liberals dropped to third place behind the Greens and Labor in South Yarra and South Yarra Central and finished first at the South Yarra PPVC and in South Yarra South but on preferences the Greens would’ve won those booths. In 2019, the Greens won the primary vote in South Yarra itself, while in South Yarra Central and the South Yarra PPVC the Liberals finished first. The Greens got 55.8% of the TCP vote in South Yarra in 2016 and narrowly finished first in the booth.

I feel like when politicians post things like that and say the reception is good, it’s because only their supporters (or people open to supporting them) would actually stop and talk.

Similar to how that Ian Cook character did his own “exit poll” at a prepoll in Mulgrave that News Corp reported indicated he would beat Dan Andrews. Cook gor around 20% and Dan won on primary votes.

If you’re only gauging a response from people willing to speak to you it’ll always be skewed.

@Trent I agree it’s skewed and I’m not saying the Liberals are winning this either. Plus if it’s at a train station some people won’t even be residents of Prahran and could be from anywhere in Melbourne. Melbourne is a large city, the second-largest in Australia after Sydney, so that’s a very broad range of people you could come across at a train station or a tram stop.

But, the Liberals are still campaigning there already, so they’re kinda already beating the Greens in the campaign race. But the winner of the campaign doesn’t always win the election as we all should know by now (sure they often do but not always). For example, in the recent Queensland state election, One Nation clearly won the campaign (and even the social media campaign) in the seat of Keppel but finished third (behind the LNP and One Nation), while in the US presidential election the campaign was 50/50 (though very much divided on geography and demography) but Donald Trump still won easily.

Speaking of Ian Cook though, I wonder if he’ll keep running or he’ll call it quits after two consecutive losses to Labor. I have always been confused as to what he stands for but I’m pretty sure he’s a socially conservative, anti-lockdown independent if I recall correctly, but what did he stand for?

@ NP
South Yarra is a major interchange station so used by many people who live outside the electorate and the area is also close to major offices.
Ian Cook ran on anti-corruption platform not left or right. The issue was that he is no Dai Le and in a very ethnic area he is just an Old White Businessman who sometimes looked lost.

Yep Ian Cook’s platform was really just focused on government corruption but was also a personal vendetta to an extent, because the Dept of Health shut down his catering business in 2019. He was able to try to harness people’s anger at Dept of Health over Covid to win some public support in his own crusade against them.

I read that Ian Cook recently ran for a ward in Dandenong Council, also on a very generic anti-corruption platform, but missed out.

Regarding whether the Greens Israel stance would sway voters away from them, I think the politically informed and more educated voters and rusted on Zionists would’ve known the Greens stance for a long time. It hasn’t changed. I don’t think it would shift too many votes around in Prahran. Many people disagree with their favourite party’s stance on Israel but will hold their noses and vote for them because they see more pressing issues.

Nimalan above makes a good point that it’s a misconception that the Greens support for Palestine only began last year. It’s only just that since Oct 7, they’ve been more vocal and campaigned harder on the issue like appearing at protests.

@Votante that is a very valid point. I think some will swing over it because the Greens’ focus has been on identity politics and Palestine but not a massive amount. It happened in Maiwar, where Labor to Greens preference flows were below average, so it could very well happen in Prahran (note that the Greens still retained Maiwar, and I think Prahran will remain safer for the Greens than Maiwar).

@Nether Portal, the swings away from the Greens at various elections are probably because of a protest against Greens, mainly federal, seen as taking the eye off the ball and also an protest against their policies.

I don’t believe a huge number of the soft or swing Green voters left due to having polar opposite views on Palestine. In fact, Palestine may not even rank highly in their minds and the association with Palestine made such voters feel abandoned.

@Votante that’s what I’m saying, they don’t care about the free Palestine movement because it’s such a complex issue that doesn’t involve Australia.

The war in Ukraine is completely different and comparing those wars could be considered offensive (the war in Ukraine is a full-scale invasion of an oppressed and innocent sovereign state (Ukraine) by an aggressive force (Russia) against). The war in Gaza is not a genocide, the war in Ukraine however could be described as one. Boris Johnson described Putin as being “more of a Hitler” than a Stalin when asked in an interview recently.

@BenM
I disagree. The Libs have every reason to go hard in Prahran to build momentum to win Macnamara and and win back Goldstein. Those two federal seats will be key to a liberal victory at the federal election. They are running a strong candidate in Mcnamara with Benson Saulo, who should appeal to more progressive on the fence voters. And given how much Labor is on the nose with the jewish community, A lot of votes will shift from Josh Burns (ALP) to the libs, giving them a real chance. Hence the Prahran by-election will be very important to the libs.

@bens thats actually a good point even if the libs can just force labor out of the 2cp as if it’s lib v lab f2fthe stronger green preferences would likely get burns over the line

I don’t believe the Liberals have any hope of winning Macnamara which is on a 13%+ margin. They have never won it in all of Melbourne Ports / Macnamara’s history. The closest they ever came was in recent memory – 2016 – but that was when Malcolm Turnbull was PM and the Liberal Party was mostly led by a moderate leadership group (Julie Bishop, Pyne, etc), but more importantly it was when Labor’s local member was Michael Danby who was absolutely hated locally.

Benson Saulo may be a decent candidate but that doesn’t erase the Liberal Party being led by Peter Dutton and having its moderate wing almost entirely erased from the federal party.

Josh Burns is definitely more popular than Michael Danby was, and also the Greens’ position has significantly improved since 2016 as well.

I have no doubt the 2CP/2PP margin will improve for the Liberals compared to 2022 for a number of reasons, but to expect the Liberals to gain a 13%+ swing in an inner-city Melbourne seat, with Peter Dutton as the opposition leader and a Greens vote hovering close to 30%, seems very very unlikely.

In terms of how running a campaign in the seat of Prahran helps with this though, it’s important to look at precisely which area it overlaps with.

Most of the seat of Prahran actually overlaps with the federal seat of Melbourne which the Liberal Party will not only never win, but never bother running a serious campaign in, and these are actually the suburbs where the Liberals do a little better (South Yarra & Prahran) because the seat gets more left-wing the further south it goes.

Similarly, the parts of Macnamara that are most Liberal-friendly, being the Caulfield area and suburbs like Port Melbourne, Albert Park and Middle Park, overlap with the state seats of Caulfield & Albert Park.

The only area where Macnamara & Prahran overlap are the most left-wing parts of both seats respectively: that being Windsor, St Kilda & the most progressive pocket of St Kilda East. There were booths here that had a GRN v LIB 2CP as high as 82-18 and a Liberal primary vote as low as 12% in 2022.

So in terms of the Macnamara & Prahran campaigns boosting each other’s chances for the Liberal Party, I just don’t think the area that actually overlaps is where it would make any meaningful difference as it’s where the Liberal Party are really on the nose.

On the other hand, in support of BenM’s comment, the Greens’ fortunes in Macnamara really just depend on knocking Labor out of the 2CP, and the Macnamara/Prahran overlap area mostly covers the main part of both seats where the Liberals run a distant third while Labor & Greens both dominate the vote, so it is very important for them to get momentum in that area, as them increasing their primary vote lead over Labor in this area is crucial to their path to win Macnamara.

Interesting, with Labor not running/endorsing a candidate in the Prahran by-election, that the former state Labor MP (2002-2010), Tony Lupton, says he’s throwing his hat into the ring as a “Labor-values” Independent. Fun times. In an electorate with huge voter-churn every four years, how many will remember the name from 14 years ago when he last ran, or 18 years ago when he last won?

Is Lupton preferencing the Liberals or the Greens?

SCart
Yes

SCart i would assume he would be preferencing the Liberals
Does anyone know who is running for Liberal preselection?

@Andrew 3040 – I make the same argument about Lupton. Prahran is a young & transient seat, not only that but its boundaries have significantly changed since he was MP as well. So how much name recognition will he actually have left compared to any other random independent? Probably not much.

Based on what he has written for The Australian and what he has been saying, if you were to categorise Labor members as being closer to DLP (economic left / social conservative) or “Teal” (economic centre / social progressive), he is definitely closer to the DLP side which is not aligned with Prahran whatsoever.

I don’t think he’ll make a huge dent. Maybe 6-8% range. The Greens will no doubt actively run a campaign that paints him as a conservative.

I think the voters he will mostly appeal to are the former Labor voters who would have voted Liberals instead of Greens anyway, if he wasn’t running. And those preferences will just funnel back to the Liberals so the net result will probably be that he doesn’t have much impact at all. Maybe changes the 2CP result by about 2-3% at most.

I just mentioned on the Macnamara thread too that St Kilda Primary School is shaping up to be an issue. There has been a big campaign by the school to rebuild their school hall which was demolished in 2021, thousands of signatures on a petition and corflutes everywhere. The Greens candidates have been very active in the school’s campaign, and have made it a central issue in their own campaigns for both Macnamara & Prahran as the school itself and most of its catchment zone is in both seats.

John Pesutto just lost his defamation case against Moira Deeming.

If Pesutto is no longer the leader by February, I’d estimate the Greens would probably retain a double-digit 2CP margin again after this byelection.

@ Trent
If Moira Deeming is back in the party room she will not keep quiet. She will argue Libs are Labor lite and the religious wing will push to focus on weird culture wars. I will not be surprised if they bring abortion/euthansia all back on the agenda.

Isnt liberal preselection today?

They selected a Rachel Westaway, South Yarra local with ties to the Toorak Prahran Cricket Club and President of the Thai Australian Chamber.

@Nimalan,

I actually think you have the direction of travel backwards, it is the ‘left’ pushing weird culture wars and people like Moira Deeming pushing back. Now, it would be better if ‘normies’ were pushing back rather than the Christian right, but most people don’t even know these culture wars are going on.

Doesn’t matter in the case of Prahran, where their only chance was no ALP and those voters splitting to the Libs. Unlikely anyway, but not going to happen if (as I read recently) there is a Quasi Labor indie running.

@ MLV
I actually think both the Far Left and the Christian/National Right push weird culture wars which if why i say the best friends with each other. While the Centre Left, Centre and Centre Right often see the divide in society has one based on economic interest the former see society divided along values rather than economics interest. People like Moira Deeming are less interested in economic issues and may prefer Liberals become a watered down version of the DLP (Economically Left, Socially Right). This is why they prefer wedge issues because they believe issues such as LGBT issues/abortion etc can win parts of the Labor voting base which it probably could but there will be a price to pay on the other end. Shared social values do not guarantee electoral success because there will be people who agree with Moira Deeming on Trans issues but nevertheless prefer Labor due to economic issues.

I disagree Mostly Labor Voter. I think the “left” culture wars are really exaggerated and played up by an overly conservative media because for the right’s culture wars to be effective and win votes, people need to think they are under threat or that “PC has gone mad” and things are “woke”.

I think most on the left simply want people to be able to be themselves without discrimination or prejudice. That’s not really starting a culture war. That’s just saying let people be, keep your nose out of what other people do.

Of course, throughout history there have always been some people who take things too far (on both sides) but in the age of social media, and in an age where the conservative media explicitly WANT to stoke culture wars, they can now literally latch onto a single unhinged person’s Facebook comment, write an article saying “the left” are trying to ban something (really it’s just one person), post that article to Facebook for clicks and get thousands more comments, and a culture war debate starts. It’s what they want.

Whereas if the Daily Mail or whoever it may be never wrote or posted that article, that one person’s comment would never even be known and nobody would be talking about it.

My view has always just been to let people be themselves, as long as it doesn’t harm others. That’s pretty simple and I don’t see it as being a culture war, but I see actions that try to harm or oppress others as being a culture war.

@Trent I do partly agree with that but I still think wokeism is an issue but it’s mostly just Greens doing it.

Some very conservative people like Sky After Dark will refer to lots of things, people, groups, businesses, organisations, teams, parties, etc as woke and sometimes they’re right but sometimes they’re wrong.

However, woke has a very specific definition for me. It’s sorta hard to explain but if someone asked me if certain things or people or whatever were woke or not I could give a definitive yes or no answer for sure (if you like feel free to ask me and I will provide a centrist response).

@ Nether Portal
In the past, political correctness was used by the right aginst the Left. i mentioned on some thread, that in the US some retailers refer to Christmas Trees as Holiday Trees. I think that is just dumb and i think you will agree with me. Howard mentioned that many people moved from government schools to private schools because they were “too politically correct” see link below. He said public schools did not allow nativity scenes to be displayed or nativity plays to be held. I am a member of a religious minority but i dont have an issue with nativity plays. When i was in school we used BC/AD to mark time now they use BCE/CE.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2004-01-20/political-correctness-behind-private-school/122348

@Nimalan I agree Christmas trees should be referred to as Christmas trees as that’s what they’re called.

Religious education is always an option in public schools, as it should be. It shouldn’t be forced but rather optional for students who are religious.

I also don’t see a problem with nativity plays and I’m not a religious person (I have some family members who are Catholic though).

I’m pretty sure Victorian public schools no longer offer religious education during school hours but it’s an option after school activity.

I agree about Christmas trees and I’m not religious at all, however I can’t say I’ve ever heard anybody refer to them as anything else in my life, even among my lefty circles in woke inner-Melbourne.. 😉

I did not mean to be disrespectful so apologies if it came across that way. Culture Wars are nothing new neither is Wedge politics. Sometimes this loses efficacy over time. When Menzies decided to fund Catholic Schools initially that was seen as a wedge to divide the Labor party support base, by the time Whitlam became leader and decided that Labor would also fund it so was neutralized. The Republic had greater support across the political spectrum in the 1990s and 2000s but today maybe seen as “woke” as it has less wider support. In the 2000s SSM has less wide support and both parties were opposed that is different now where it is seen as settled. Using BCE/CE maybe a left wing culture war because i dont know who actually got offended by BC/AD.