Cause of by-election
Sitting independent MP Sam Hibbins, until recently a member of the Greens, resigned after recently quitting his party due to the revelation of an affair with a staff member.
Margin – GRN 12.0% vs LIB
Incumbent MP
Sam Hibbins, since 2014.
Geography
Inner southern Melbourne. Prahran covers the suburbs of Prahran, South Yarra and Windsor and parts of St Kilda and St Kilda East.
History
Prahran has been a state electorate since 1889. It has alternated between the ALP and conservative parties, before falling to the Greens in 2014.
The ALP first won the seat in 1894, holding it until 1900. Liberal MP Donald Mackinnon held the seat from 1900 to 1920. The ALP and conservative parties alternated in control until the 1930s, with the Liberal Party holding the seat until 1945.
In 1945, the ALP’s William Quirk won the seat, holding it until his death in November 1948. The ensuing by-election in 1949 was won by Frank Crean, who had previously held the seat of Albert Park. He left the seat in 1951 when he moved to the federal seat of Melbourne Ports. He served as a federal MP until 1977, playing a senior role in the Whitlam Labor government.
The 1951 Prahran by-election was won by the ALP’s Robert Pettiona, who held the seat until his defeat in 1955.
Since 1955, Prahran has been won by the ALP only four times. In 1955, the seat was won by Sam Loxton, a Liberal candidate. Loxton was a former test cricketer who had been part of Don Bradman’s Invincibles team and played VFL football for St Kilda.
Loxton held the seat until 1979, when the ALP’s Bob Miller won the seat. He held the seat for two terms, and in 1985 unsuccessfully contested the Legislative Council province of Monash.
The Liberal Party’s Don Hayward won the seat in 1985. He had previously held the upper house seat of Monash from 1979 to 1985. He served as Member for Prahran until the 1996 election.
In 1996, the Liberal Party’s Leonie Burke won Prahran. Burke was defeated in 2002 by the ALP’s Tony Lupton. Lupton was re-elected in 2006.
In 2010, Lupton was defeated by Liberal candidate Clem Newton-Brown.
Prahran produced an unusual result in 2014, with the third-placed Greens candidate Sam Hibbins overtaking both Labor and Liberal candidates to win narrowly.
Hibbins was re-elected in 2018, again coming third on primary votes and then overtaking Labor and Liberal to win.
Hibbins gained a sizeable primary vote swing in 2022, with Labor reduced to a clear third place, and he also increased his majority after preferences.
Hibbins resigned from the Greens in November 2024 due to the revelation of a previous affair with a staff member.
Assessment
Prahran has effectively two different axes on which competition takes place – between Labor and Greens to be the leading progressive party, and between those parties and the Liberal Party on the two-candidate-preferred count. The race was close on both axes in 2014. In 2018 the Liberal Party wasn’t competitive but Labor and Greens were still close. In 2022, Hibbins won easily on both.
This seat could be competitive on either axis in Hibbins’ absence, particularly considering the circumstances of his departure.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Sam Hibbins | Greens | 14,286 | 36.4 | +8.1 |
| Matthew Lucas | Liberal | 12,198 | 31.1 | -1.6 |
| Wesa Chau | Labor | 10,421 | 26.6 | -3.9 |
| Alice Le Huray | Animal Justice | 1,263 | 3.2 | +0.9 |
| Ronald Emilsen | Family First | 626 | 1.6 | +1.6 |
| Alan Menadue | Independent | 449 | 1.1 | +0.8 |
| Informal | 1,223 | 3.0 |
2022 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Sam Hibbins | Greens | 24,334 | 62.0 | +3.0 |
| Matthew Lucas | Liberal | 14,909 | 38.0 | -3.0 |
Booths have been divided into three areas: central, north and south.
The Greens topped the primary vote in all three areas, with a vote ranging from 39.1% in hte north to 45.5% in the south.
The Liberal Party came second, with a primary vote ranging from 18% in the south to 29.2% in the north. Labor’s primary vote ranged from 24.5% in the centre to 29.6% in the south, and outpolling Liberal in the south.
The Greens two-candidate-preferred vote against the Liberal Party ranged from 64% in the north to 76.3% in the south.
| Voter group | GRN prim | LIB prim | ALP prim | GRN 2CP | Total votes | % of votes |
| North | 39.1 | 29.2 | 25.9 | 64.0 | 5,206 | 13.3 |
| Central | 43.9 | 26.3 | 24.5 | 68.3 | 3,879 | 9.9 |
| South | 45.5 | 18.0 | 29.6 | 76.3 | 2,865 | 7.3 |
| Pre-poll | 35.4 | 32.7 | 26.6 | 61.1 | 18,980 | 48.3 |
| Other votes | 30.5 | 35.2 | 26.9 | 56.5 | 8,357 | 21.3 |
Election results in Prahran at the 2022 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Greens vs Liberal) and primary votes for the Greens, the Liberal Party and Labor.
On this topic, because I think coming into both this Prahran byelection and Macnamara in the federal election there is a lot of discussion around the impact of the war on the Greens vote in this area, I have just looked at the religion by SA1 data to break down the Jewish population in the St Kilda & St Kilda East area into different sections.
It’s not so relevant for federal elections because it’s all in Macnamara anyway (although it is useful in redistribution topics because it highlights why Hotham St makes a great boundary), but it’s very relevant when discussing the Prahran byelection, to avoid overstating the impact of the Israel war or even actually focusing on the wrong part of the seat when talking about it.
Here is the Jewish population in each of these areas based on SA1 data:
ST KILDA (west of St Kilda Rd, in Albert Park district) – 2.0%
ST KILDA (east of St Kilda Rd, in Prahran district) – 2.8%
ST KILDA EAST (Port Phillip, west of Hotham, in Prahran district) – 6.7%
ST KILDA EAST (Port Phillip, east of Hotham, in Caulfield district) – 15.1%
ST KILDA EAST (Glen Eira, in Caulfield district) – 56.5%
BALACLAVA (entirely in Caulfield district) – 11.7%
RIPPONLEA (entirely in Caulfield district) – 12.7%
If I look at the 2023 federal enrolment numbers that overlap Prahran district there are around 46,000 enrolled voters, and the Jewish population for the seat is 2.7%. Certainly above average, but not in a meaningful way that would actually harm the Greens.
More interestingly, and related more to my post above and comments from journalists like Annika Smethurst stating that the Greens’ stance on Israel might hurt them in the “southern end of the seat” (which would refer to St Kilda & St Kilda East), here is the estimated number of Jewish voters per suburb in this seat, noting these numbers differ from above after looking at SA1s data properly:
SOUTH YARRA – 325
PRAHRAN – 309
WINDSOR – 203
ST KILDA EAST – 189
ST KILDA – 124
MELBOURNE – 73
SOUTHBANK – 26
I just thought that was interesting because for all of the focus on the “southern end” (mostly implying St Kilda East), I think a lot of people would be surprised to see just how small the actual Jewish population is there.
And demographically, I don’t think there’s any reason to believe the non-Jewish population in this seat would be any more turned off by the Greens’ stance on Gaza than any other seat. I’d actually argue the opposite as it’s a young, progressive and mostly non-religious seat.