Prahran by-election, 2025

Interesting how the trend of comments here has gone from a big Green win to a small Green win.
I would agree with most of the recent comments, that the trend (and other factors) seem to be favouring the Libs.
On the Pollbludger website, there is a poster of note called “nadia88”, who has suggested the Libs will win this seat with a primary in excess of 40%, and a slim 2PP win. She posted this around New years, and she is completely out on a limb as no one on that site (or here) thinks this way. She has, however, a fairly good track record with recent politics and the only reason I raise this is that, on the tally room, the trend of posts seem to be now moving in favour of the Libs, or at the least, the Greens no longer getting a “big win”.
I suppose, caution needs to be exercised on the Greens getting a solid win. Could possibly be a Lib pick up, even if held for only 18 months.

Yeah there’s no way the Liberals could get close to winning this seat in a general election now with all 3 majors running, but this by-election could definitely be close based on all the factors recently discussed that are unique to this situation. I wouldn’t rule out a surprise narrow LIB win, followed by a comfortable Greens win again in 2026.

But I think the Greens still have to be favoured to win it in 3 weeks, just not with a big margin like most of us originally thought.

Greens probably need to do some sort of attack campaign, highlight the recent leadership change in the Libs, and with so many INDs running, couple it with some sort of “Put the Liberals last” materials.

I’m glad you have the stomach for the comments section over at PollBludger. Was that prediction made before Pesutto got rolled?

I certainly had it down as a GRN win because I felt it was a high propensity district that would achieve near full turn-out and the liberals have done nothing this term to win any of their inner city vote back. But that point about turn out and the young renters is definitely one to consider. With 11 candidates on the ballot I’d expect the informal rate to go up as well.

On turnout, it’s probably relevant to note that turnout was way below average here in 2022 as well (only 82%) but the Greens still won with a 12% 2CP margin.

So maybe a degree of low turnout impacting the Greens vote is already reflected in the current margin too, at least to an extent. So it may not be too much of a factor.

In any case, the Greens not taking a win for granted can only be good for them (I know they are looking at what should be a very effective big billboard in a very prominent location), and other than the Liberal candidate herself, the Liberals overall seem to be prioritising Werribee a lot more, and the more palatable Libs like Pesutto abd Southwick appear to have stopped campaigning here. Not sure Westaway having Batton and Renee Heath (yes she was here) by her side will be as effective.

So I do still think the Greens will hold it.

I just think it’ll be a closer result that probably gives the media and Libs false hope that it could be a key or competitive seat in 2026, which it won’t be.

Thanks Maxim, I was just monitoring posts there. There wasn’t much discussion about the Prahran by election (unlike here which has generated in excess of 150 posts). I just noticed that poster I mentioned earlier had suggested a slim lib pick up for prahran, but having said that i now can’t find her post. It was around New years, so just after pesutto got rolled. Thanks trent too, for a very thorough analysis of the area.

I found it, it’s the second last comment on the post called “Passing the Battin”. She commented about 2 days after the leadership change so it was fresh. One person replied to ask the reasoning but there were no more comments after that.

My observation as a local is that the Lib candidate has been out & about quite a lot, but prior to 27 Dec she had Pesutto, Southwick and Crozier with her every time. Since then she has still been out almost every day, but I think she’s only had Crozier once, Battin twice, and other randoms including Renee Heath here and there. It does look like the higher profile Libs have stopped putting anything into it.

Also Southwick was posting a lot of social media about Prahran up to 27 Dec and nothing about the byelection since either. The signs do point to the broader party having stepped away a bit, but the candidate herself seems to be running a pretty decent grassroots style campaign. That could be a deliberate choice to make it more about her and less about the party, to take the spotlight off the narrative of the more conservative leadership team.

The Greens sent out an excellent brochure which I received today, in personally addressed envelopes which reduces the chance of people just throwing it out with junk mail before looking.

It’s one that has a large full page (A4) map of the electorate with markers and comments highlighting the locations of all their specific policies – saving Windsor Childcare Centre, upgrade South Yarra Station, make Windsor Station accessible, extend the protected bike lanes on St Kilda Rd to Elsternwick, $12m to build St Kilda Primary School Hall, prevent demolition of public housing, various policies about Chapel St, prevent closure of Prahran post office, etc.

That sort of brochure is usually effective because it’s so specific and local. Opposite is a full page listing all the policies including the 50c PT fares, making unlimited rent increases illegal, public builder to build 200,000 affordable homes, price cap on essential groceries, etc.

It also clearly frames a Greens vote as the only way to keep the Liberals out, in the absence of a Labor candidate.

I haven’t received any Liberal flyers yet but maybe the Greens corflute on my fence made them skip my letterbox..

The Greens are by far winning the corflute and poster war too, both are everywhere. Only seen 1 Liberal corflute and no posters. Seem some Tony Lupton posters but no corflutes.

I think with a young demographic who may not be that engaged, social media will really be the key to turnout. I don’t have Tik Tok or anything so would have no idea.

Thanks Trent. Yes I can see the post on that thread dated Dec.31, and it’s fresh from the leadership spill which occured four days earlier on Dec.27 (definately post Pesutto)

Really don’t know with the Prahran district seat, it’s going to be a thin margin either way I suppose. Sorry, classic motherhood statement. Perhaps the reasoning was based on how the Fannie bay preferences flowed in the NT election (ie: inner city seat, where the ALP vote collapsed and the Greens came No.2). The preference flow from Labor to the greens was around 61% from memory. Usually it is higher (around 75%), so maybe there is some sort of alienation of Labor voters from the Greens.

In Prahran’s case, we have a 26% ALP vote from last time (which “won’t collapse”, because they’re not standing) but will spray around to all sorts of groups – most likely the Indie ex-Labor member. He’s on record for criticising the current labor gov’t too. I suppose if the Libs can pick up just 10 of that 26 (%), then the Libs would then be in the low 40’s on primary. If the ex-Labor voter preferences start moving to the Libs in similar numbers to what we saw in Fannie Bay (as payback to the Greens), then yes we could see a small Lib win. Not a big win, but a win just the same.
Probably a temp hold until the next election. Could be a very interesting seat to watch.

On the other side of Melbourne, I think Werribee will be a Labor retain, although they will lose some paint, but a retain none the less.

The Labor vote will definitely spray around and so will preferences which is the risk for the Greens.

However, with so many independents on the ballot, I don’t think much of Labor’s vote will end up as a Liberal primary vote. The Labor supporters who don’t like the Greens are more likely to vote IND and preference the Libs I think, which is the same outcome really, but should leak some of those prefs back to the Greens and might keep the Liberal primary under 40%.

One more thing that could be a factor is Labor’s plan to demolish the public housing towers. Those residents would be strongly Labor voting in the past, and that was only announced in 2023. The Greens, particularly the old member Hibbins who had the housing portfolio, very strongly opposed that (as do most residents). So that could win Greens support among a cohort of usual Labor voters. There are at least 7 public housing towers in the seat slated for demolition – 1 in St Kilda, 1 in Windsor, 2 in Prahran and at least 3 in South Yarra at the biggest estate.

I think the Greens will get more of a primary vote benefit from the lack of a Labor candidate than the Libs (should get them over 40%) but preferences could favour the Libs which is where it could get very competitive if the Libs are close to 40% too.

Why is the Poll Bludger comment section bad (not a commenter there sorry)?

In my experience it’s about 5% psephology and 95% partisan tribal bickering and attacking the other “teams”.

Pollbludger used to be an excellent psephology site way back in the day when it was independent, but when it moved to Crikey the intelligent posts quickly got swamped by the partisan shizen-stirrers.

It’s heavily left-wing, and also seems to have a bit too much of the crank-y “Nobody I know votes Liberal so the polls are all lies!” kind of stuff to be interesting to anyone who doesn’t agree with the hivemind. There are a few conservative voices there, but they honestly come across as either delusional true believers or straight out trolls.

Yeah just full of really arrogant and nasty partisans

When I see (open thread) I just run

I’d say not even just left-wing but specifically pro-Labor. I’ve been blasted for suggesting the Greens had a chance in 2022’s Macnamara count (which Antony Green even backed up and said Josh Burns himself contacted him to say scrutineer reports are saying the Greens could pass me, don’t call it). A lot of the commenters seems to think the Liberals and Greens are one and the same. Couldn’t be further from the truth.

@Trent no one is suggesting anything but that the Liberals and the Greens are absolute not alike at all.

As for if they’ll win or not it’s really a matter of how Caulfield votes. But remove Caulfield from the seat and replace it with Prahran and then it’s definitely a Greens seat.

On the topic of low turnout, that’s a plausible cause for concern for the Greens. It’s true that it’s typically lower at by-elections.

Would the summer holidays also hamper turnout? Also, since people are returning from the holidays, they may not be on top of the latest happenings. There’s a reason why January is a no go for elections but this by-election will be a week after January.

@NP, no there are certain posters on PB who in almost every post say “the Liberals and their enablers The Greens” and claim that the Greens are Liberal allies because they occasionally vote against Labor together (despite the Greens voting with Labor most of the time).

That’s what I’m referring to with people saying they’re the same.

As for the results, I was specifically referring to a conversation that occurred while the 2022 count was still in progress. I had said it’s not over yet, Greens can still win and was blasted by the Labor supporters. Then Antony Green himself – who had previously called the seat for Labor but changed it back to in doubt – chimed in and said Josh Burns contacted him and said scrutineer reports were pointing to a very close ALP v GRN race so don’t call it.

As it turns out it was a few hundred votes in it, so the backlash I got from simply saying don’t write off the Greens yet was totally unwarranted.

Agree with you fully Trent, Maxim & Mark Mulcair re: PB.

Onto Prahran, I notice that Battin has been out and about testing the waters re: the Fed’s nuclear policy.
Very gusty move, especially on the eve of the Prahran by-election. Just a feeling that the state Libs have internal polling suggesting a swing to them – as in they seem to be going all out, rather than dilly-dallying along the sidelines like they have with issues over the past 10 years.
Battin will obviously want to get a big primary swing to him here in order to shore up his leadership, if not pick up the seat. I’d say probably an 8-10 % primary swing will make him happy (regardless as to whether that results in him picking the seat up). If he goes backwards on primary, or gets a paltry increase of only 3-5 %, his short term reign will be in a lote of strife.
This will be a very interesting by-election come Feb.8

So far I feel like the Greens have missed a chance to specifically highlight and attack the Liberals’ policies and leadership changes that would be very unpopular here.

They should be highlighting the leadership change, the readmission of Deeming as well as the promotion of Heath & Macarthur (and highlighting their views and links to the religious right), painting Battin as similar to Dutton, pointing out that unlike Pesutto, Battin hasn’t opposed allowing nuclear reactors in Victoria, I haven’t seen any of that yet.

I thought that recent issues polling, and I will admit I have a lot of issues with issues polling, suggests that younger people are much more positive around nuclear power than us oldsters who remember Chernobyl, SALT, MAD etc. So maybe the Greens have done their polling and without Labor don’t want to risk that anti-nuclear might not be the vote winner it seemed.

Or they are focussing, as you have suggested above, on a hyper local campaign and don’t want to muddy that with a negative campaign against the Libs.

The hyper local campaign point is a good one, but the risk for the Greens is that the Liberal candidate is running the same and seems to be pretty effectively separating herself from the state party.

If I were the Greens I’d probably do a leaflet at least, an ALP or GetUp style attack one, that doesn’t distract from their own hyper local campaign (by not even mentioning themselves).

One that has those angry black & white images of Battin, Deeming and Dutton next to the Lib candidate to tie them together, and reminding voters of the more toxic / hard-right elements of the Liberals brand that are very unpopular here, including the recent events involving Deeming and the new leadership team, which I think in the absence of a Labor attack campaign the Liberal candidate has so far done well to distance herself from.

The Liberal vote plummeted in Prahran between 2014 and 2022 because the brand was toxic. That’s wearing off so it’d just make sense for the Greens to use the recent events to capitalise on that again.

Greens’ and Liberals’ HTVCs have been registered with the VEC now.

1 Greens; 2 Animal Justice; 3 Janine Hendry; 4 Nathan Chisholm; 5 Buzz Billman; 6 Alan Menadue; 7 Tony Lupton; 8 Sustainable Australia; 9 Liberal; 10 Libertarian; 11 Family First

1 Liberal; 2 Tony Lupton; 3 Nathan Chilsholm; 4 Libertarian; 5 Family First; 6 Janine Hendry; 7 Alan Menedue; 8 Buzz Billman; 9 Sustainable Australia; 10 Animal Justice; 11 Greens

Not that either one matters as they will certainly both make the 2CP. The IND HTVCs (if they submit them) will be much more important, although adherence to IND HTVCs I believe is pretty low anyway. But what’s interesting is the Liberal card putting Tony Lupton second, which indicates they may have made some sort of preference deal with him to put them ahead of the Greens.

It would be in Lupton’s best interest to run an open ticket and appear impartial, especially since right from the start there were accusations of him running to funnel preferences to the Libs. But the #2 on the Liberal card makes me think some sort of deal was probably negotiated.

Suspicion confirmed.

Tony Lupton has registered his HTVC this morning, and not only has the Liberals higher than the Greens, but has actually put the Liberals as #2 – above all the other independents even.

Hard to argue that he’s not there to “funnel preferences to the Liberals” now.

Also submitted:
– Sustainable Australia: open ticket
– Nathan Chisholm: open ticket
– Libertarian: has Family First 2, Lupton 3, Liberals 6, Greens 11 as the key ones to point out

Lupton definitely seems aligned with the right-wing candidates.

Wouldn’t surprise me if the Liberals secretly give him volunteers in that case

That’s a great point. They’d know there’s probably a large majority of Labor voters who wouldn’t put the Liberals #1.

So a clever strategy, and possibly why they’ve been “confident” since very early on, is basically having Tony Lupton run as an ex-ALP independent, using Gough Whitlam’s “It’s Time” branding, with a preference swap in place, and give him volunteers to get HTVCs out there and get that Labor vote to the Liberals via stealth.

He has even put Family First ahead of the Greens…

Thanks Trent. Looks like she’s getting a good preference flow. Just not too sure that the ALP voters who may give Lupton their 1st pref will follow the HTV. I gather it will spray around everywhere when it come’s to him being distributed. Anyway, looks like he’s doing a good job with the saboteur role

Westaway is getting good media too – free run on the local JoyFM radio station.
She seems to have a good knowledge of the electorate, although the interview is extremely soft.

I have a funny feeling this may be heading to a Lib pick up, albeit a very slim one.

It’s definitely shaping up to be a lot closer than it should be, for a seat that the Liberals would really have zero chance of winning in a normal election where all 3 parties ran.

Labor may have shot themselves in the foot by not running a candidate here. Especially being on the same day as an actual ALP v LIB byelection, Labor taking a primary vote hit in a Greens seat that gets retained by the Greens wouldn’t really have made any noise whatsoever. There’s probably not even very far that their primary vote could have fallen as I’d say the 20-25% range would be their floor, and their 2022 vote was only 26.6%. So at most, a primary vote swing would have been less than average against incumbent governments. And they could always have just run the excuse that they focused on Werribee.

But at least fielding a candidate would have given Labor voters a natural home to place their vote, with a reliable 80% preference flow to the Greens.

Instead, by not running and allowing their vote to go to a right-wing ex-ALP independent directing preferences to the Liberals, a possible Liberal gain in a seat the Greens held on a 12% margin is a much bigger story that emboldens the narrative of the Liberals being competitive in 2026, even if the gain is only due to unusual circumstances.

There’s still a week until early voting starts. The Greens’ campaign launch isn’t until tomorrow night and I believe there will be a big advertising blitz ahead. To win, they will need to:

– Retain the vast majority of the 36.4% of voters who put them first in 2022 (around 35% out of that), which in the absence of Labor to swing to should be achievable;

– Minimise Lupton’s vote to mostly be contained to the ~20% of Labor voters who would have put the Libs ahead of the Greens even if Labor did run;

– Collect at least 10-12% out of the 26.6% Labor vote from last time as an addition to their primary vote. This is the key they need to focus on: getting enough of those Labor voters to put them first, not Lupton or anybody else.

If they do that, a primary vote above 45% (with a Lupton primary vote only in the 6-7% range) should be enough to get over the line on the preferences that spray from everywhere else.

There are four possible scenarios from these by elections:
1. Small or no swing to the Libs
2. Large swing to the Libs but Labor and Greens hold on
3. Libs win one
4. Libs win two
Anything but the first scenario is good for Brad Battin on his first outing as leader. Scenarios 2 and 3 are good for Brad Battin and even better with a seat in parliament in Scenario 3. Scenario 4 would be extraordinarily good but would be even better as it would pull the rug out from under Jacinta Allan. She would start to look like the dead premier walking to the next state election or start the leadership tongues wagging.

Most likely scenario is that both Liberals & Greens improve their primary votes in the absence of Labor running, but the 2CP is much closer due to preferences spraying around more than they would with a Labor HTVC.

Interestingly though, Kevin Bonham’s analysis mentions that only 30% of Labor voters followed the HTVC last time, and of the 70% who didn’t, around 75% of the preferences still went to the Greens. You’d think HTVC adherence would be even lower among the independents. I’ve also heard that on the ground, the discussions with Labor voters (and even Tony Lupton supporters) is that they really dislike the Liberals and wouldn’t preference them above the Greens, which makes sense since the Liberals are their traditional rival.

Overall I think it’s easier to think of the Labor vote (worth around 25%) as one bloc, who will probably have very low HTVC adherence regardless of who they vote for, and in 2022 the preferences of Labor voters who didn’t follow a HTVC flowed around 75-25 to the Greens. The Greens could probably absorb that reducing to around 65-35 (roughly a 16-9 split), regardless of what path the votes take to get there).

As a side note, the ‘teal’ independent Janine Hendry has registered her HTVC, she has the Liberals second last and Family First last. Her #2 is the ex-Greens independent Buzz Billman. So she’s the first to put the Greens ahead of the Libs. It’s safe to say Buzz Billman and AJP will too.

Of the scenarios redistributed lists above, I think #2 is the most likely.
– Werribee: Probably an 8-9% swing to the Liberals and Labor hold 52-48.
– Prahran: Both Greens & Libs get primary vote swings due to Labor not running, but maybe an 8% 2CP swing to the Liberals, Greens hold 54-46.

Those margins look pretty good, I originally had this as a 58-42 margin but have also decided being a by-election with potentially poor lower-propensity turnout and preference shenanigans possibly impacting the greens.

I think Battin hasn’t really received much media backlash and the Labor attacks haven’t really landed either from what I can tell, I suspect Prahran could honestly be very close, Greens definitely have the edge though

From having a look at her website, Janine Hendry is very much Greens ‘Lite’ and her preferencing shows that as well. Her main effect may be to drive the Greens vote down. Interesting to note that Sonya Semmens is prominent within her foundation.

Yeah I have a feeling there will be 3 blocs of candidates that are somewhat aligned:

– Liberals, Libertarians & Family First as the conservative bloc, preferences there will flow strongly to the Liberal candidate;

– Greens, Animal Justice, Buzz Billman & Janine Hendry as the progressive bloc, preferences there will flow strongly to the Greens candidate;

– Tony Lupton, Nathan Chisholm, Alan Menadue and Sustainable Australia as the more unpredictable bloc where preferences will fly all over the place. Chisholm seems relatively centrist to progressive but has run an open ticket; Alan Menadue makes absolutely zero sense; Sustainable Australia are more ‘anti major parties’ than anything else and have an open ticket too; and Lupton put the Liberals #2 but being ex-ALP and mostly relying on the ALP vote, his preferences will fly all over the shop

Latest Polling coming out of Victoria, via the Resolve polling group in The Age

LIBS 42%
ALP 22%
GRN 13%

https://www.smh.com.au/national/resolve-political-monitor-20210322-p57cvx.html

I don’t think that will have a huge impact on this by-election but definitely looks dire for Labor in Werribee.

Greens support holding up, and Labor support plummeting (plus them not running here anyway) means Greens voters from 2022 don’t really have anywhere to swing to and will likely remain with the Greens.

The Labor vote was already well below the state average in this seat, with the difference mostly being the much higher Greens vote. It’s also not an area where the Greens are seen as “loonies” like in much of the outer suburbs, they are seen as a mainstream alternative to Labor, so it’s the kind of seat that swings to the Greens as much as the Liberals if there is a backlash against Labor.

It doesn’t really change my calculation that of the 26% of Labor voters last time, there will be an ALP to LIB swing that occurs anyway, little to no Greens to LIB swing, and the remainder the of the Labor vote will spray around but favour the Greens more than the Libs even if it’s less than it would be if Labor were running with a HTVC.

I think the question here is becoming more about how strong Hibbins’ personal vote was and if his messy exit has enough impact to sway the race too. Yes statewide GRN support seems to be going nowhere but if the Liberal primary sneaks up to the 40s and preferences become less reliable for the Greens here it could be a nailbiter. 53/54-47/46 GRN vs LNP still seems a perfectly reasonable prediction though

There are specific local factors – highest % of renters in the state (Greens focusing on rent freeze/cap as central policy), St Kilda Primary School hall, saving Windsor Childcare Centre, Greens being the main ally of resident groups opposing the demolition of public housing towers – that I think will favour the Greens regardless of incumbency.

At least enough to offset some of the other factors working against them, and keep the swing below 12%.

All they need to do is hold the seat even by 1% to go into 2026 with incumbency and reliable preference flows from Labor again, and it will revert to at least “Fairly Safe” status.