The Tally Room

Seat of the day: Wagga Wagga

Ben Raue - July 21, 2018

I've been steadily posting one seat guide every day. This week I've been posting guides to the respective Senate races, and then hopefully I'll follow those up with federal Victorian seat guides (although I may need to post a few Victorian state seats to...

Podcast #3 – Mayo, Longman and Senate party-hopping

Ben Raue - July 13, 2018

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In this episode I'm joined by Peter Brent and Amanda McCormack. We preview the by-elections in Mayo and Longman, and discuss the phenomenon of party-hopping in the Senate. The next episode is due the week before the by-elections but I've pushed it back to be...

Using 3PP data to understand three-cornered races

Ben Raue - July 11, 2018

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I was recently alerted to a new source of data on the AEC website. The AEC has always published the distribution of preferences at the seat level, as well as a more detailed dataset showing the flow of preferences from each candidate's primary votes...

ACT redistribution finalised

Ben Raue - July 3, 2018

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The final boundaries for the ACT were released today. There was one small change on the Bean/Canberra boundary in the Woden Valley area, where the remainder of the suburb of Phillip was moved from Canberra to Bean. This made no change to the margin. I've...

Podcast #2 – Braddon, Fremantle, Perth and how we name seats

Ben Raue - June 28, 2018

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In this episode I'm joined by Maiy Azize and Kevin Bonham. We preview the by-elections in Braddon, Fremantle and Perth, and discuss how we name electorates in light of Batman being renamed. In the news segment we discuss the results of the Darling Range...

Vic redistribution – final(ish) map finished

Ben Raue - June 25, 2018

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The AEC announced its final decision for the Victorian federal redistribution on Wednesday. That day I published my new estimates of the margins, and I've now also finished my map of the new electoral boundaries. I am not 100% sure these are correct, because the...

Darling Range – results wrap

Ben Raue - June 24, 2018

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Yesterday's by-election in the Perth seat of Darling Range was undoubtedly a disappointment for Labor, with a swing of 9% after preferences, producing a reasonably comfortable victory for Liberal candidate Alyssa Hayden. A Reachtel poll last week predicted a 54-46 result in favour of Labor,...

Darling Range by-election live

Ben Raue - June 23, 2018

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Primary votes - 18/20 booths reporting Candidate Votes % Swing Russell Goodrick (WAP) 1389 5.8 5.8 Anthony Pyle (GRN) 1396 5.8 -1.9 Jehni Thomas-Wurth (AJP) 788 3.3 3.3 Alyssa Hayden (LIB) 8234 34.4 4.0 John Watt (FF) 102 0.4 0.4 Rod Caddies (ON) 1867 7.8 -0.9 Tania Lawrence (ALP) 7690 32.1 -9.4 Eric Eikelboom (CHR) 1128 4.7 0.3 Stuart Ostle (SFF) 1081 4.5 0.3 Doug Shaw (IND) 140 0.6 0.6 George O’Byrne (IND) 131 0.5 0.5 Two-party-preferred votes - 18/20 booths reporting Candidate Votes % Swing Alyssa Hayden (LIB) 12750 53.3 9.1 Tania Lawrence (ALP) 11169 46.7 -9.1 Sunday, 8:43am - We saw another batch of...

Podcast #1 – Darling Range and Liberal women

Ben Raue - June 22, 2018

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Here it finally is, the first episode of the Tally Room podcast. It was recorded earlier this week after an earlier attempt last week, with Stewart Jackson and Megan Clement-Couzner. We discussed a number of election news items, which involved a wide-ranging conversation about the...

Vic redistribution finalised – the end of Batman

Ben Raue - June 20, 2018

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The Australian Electoral Commission released the final decisions for the Victorian federal redistribution earlier today. Most of the changes were very minor, with no seats experiencing a large change in margin. The switch of Dunkley from Liberal to notional Labor has been maintained. We have...