The three Wentworths

When I produce seat guides, I always like to split up the polling places in the electorate into a number of subareas. I find that there are times where you want a sense of the different parts of the seat, but the granular detail of polling places can confuse the broader trends. Sometimes these subareas represent very clear and distinct divisions in a community, while sometimes they're more arbitrary. But I think my breakdown of Wentworth reflects some pretty strong differences within the seat which I think will play out on October 20.

New by-elections datasets available

I've just added a bunch of extra data to my collection, covering all of the recent by-elections. By-election data can often be even more scattered than general election data. I've avoided publishing federal election data, because the AEC does a thorough job, at least they...

Podcast #9 – Wentworth and Victoria

Ben is joined by William Bowe and Georgia Tkachuk to discuss the Wentworth by-election and to begin discussing the Victorian state election. Ben's analysis of how preferences could decide Wentworth Latest published Wentworth poll The Tally Room guide to the Victorian state election You can...

Here’s the complete Victorian election guide

I've finished posting the Victorian state election guide today, with all of the remaining seats available on the website now. Check out the guide You can use this map to click through to any seat guide: If you're finding this guide useful, please consider signing up as...

Vic 2018 – first draft of the candidate list

I've been trickling out seat guides for the Victorian election gradually for the last while. I've now posted 53 out of 88 lower house profiles, and guides to all eight upper house regions. At the moment I'm posting two seats per day. As part of...

Wentworth by-election nominations day

Nominations will be declared at midday today for the Wentworth by-election. I'm going to drop by the ballot draw in Sydney and will update the candidate list on my seat guide in the early afternoon. As of this morning I'm aware of at least thirteen...

New dataset for website donors

I've just finished a big project pulling together a bunch of election data, which is part of a new benefit for people who donate to support this website via Patreon. I've now got a complete set of booth-level vote data for every Queensland state election...

Podcast #8 – Wagga Wagga results and Banks

I'm joined by Ben Spies-Butcher and Amanda McCormack to discuss the Wagga Wagga by-election, the state of NSW politics six months before the state election, and the federal seat of Banks. We also discussed Ann Sudmalis' retirement announcement and Kerryn Phelps' candidacy announcement. Links to things...

Wagga Wagga – results wash-up

Last night's result was extremely bad for the Liberal Party. We won't know who has won for sure for a few days or even a week, but it looks most likely that independent candidate Joe McGirr has won, and Labor probably has the next...

Wagga Wagga by-election live

Primary votes Candidate Votes % Swing Seb McDonagh (SFF) 4456 10.0 10.0 Julia Ham (LIB) 11207 25.1 -28.5 Joe McGirr (IND) 11450 25.6 25.6 Ray Goodlass (GRN) 1285 2.9 -1.8 Tom Arentz (CDP) 853 1.9 -0.4 Paul Funnell (IND) 4834 10.8 0.9 Dan Hayes (ALP) 10642 23.8 -4.7 Two-party-preferred votes Candidate Votes % Swing Julia Ham (LIB) 11185 47.7 -14.8 Dan Hayes (ALP) 12270 52.3 14.8 Exhausted 6500 12:11 - Okay, not long ago we got the primary votes for the Wagga Wagga pre-poll centre. Following this point the NSWEC took down...