WA state redistribution – starting numbers

While we're all focused on the federal election and the recent NSW state election, a number of redistributions have been kicked off for Western Australian state elections and the territory Legislative Assemblies in the Australian Capital Territory and the Northern Territory. I've already analysed...

NSW 2019 – other close seat maps

I've been compiling booth maps of a bunch of the closest races. I have two more to post for Coogee and Upper Hunter. I don't have a lot to say about these maps, but wanted to share them. Firstly Upper Hunter, a marginal Nationals seat...

Podcast #22 – NSW election wrap and One Nation preferences

UPDATE: If your podcast cut off at 28 minutes, please redownload now. Ben is joined by Stewart Jackson and Sinead Canning to wrap up the NSW election result (and discuss the ongoing upper house count), the role of One Nation preferences in the federal election,...

NSW 2019 – upper house count, week two

We're now in the second of three weeks of counting for the New South Wales Legislative Council and we're getting a decent chunk of votes counted. As of Monday evening, over a million votes have been counted in the check count (the one that includes...

NSW 2019 – the results map for the north coast

Lismore has turned out to be one of Labor's only gains at the recent state election. Labor outpolled the Greens on primary votes by 1.42%, which is expected to be enough to hold on after preferences, producing a two-party-preferred outcome of 51.5%. The neighbouring seat...

NSW 2019 – mapping the Shooters seats

The Shooters had a really good election result, but didn't do it thanks to a big sweeping vote across the state. At the moment they are on track for about one quota in the upper house. Yet thanks to the kinds of seats they...

NSW 2019 – the inner west moves apart

The inner west of Sydney has been a key battleground at NSW state elections since at least 2003, when the Greens first made a serious attempt to win the seats of Port Jackson and Marrickville. Yet something has changed this year, with the focus...

NSW 2019 – Is Labor’s problem with migrants, or the Georges River?

One of the defining moments of the New South Wales election campaign was Labor leader Michael Daley's recorded comments from 2018 about people in Sydney being squeezed out by Asia migrants. At the time there was speculation about how this would affect the Labor vote...

NSW 2019 – what about the upper house count?

The Legislative Council count is going to take a long time, and we are missing a lot of vital information we will need. The main reason for this is the Electoral Commission's decision to only count the votes of seven big groups on election night...

NSW 2019 – the impact of minor parties on Labor and the Greens

It is far too early to assess the impact of any party on the upper house, in particular parties like Sustainable Australia and Keep Sydney Open who have not yet had a single one of their upper house votes counted. Even for other parties...