Less marginal seats: the new shape of the electoral battleground
Last Saturday's election was not a landslide: far from it. While it appears the Liberal/National coalition has gained a small swing nationally, there are lots of areas which swung in the opposite direction.
So I was interested in zooming out to get a sense of...
Trends in minor party voting in the Senate
On Sunday I published a post focusing on the chances for each party in the Senate. Unsurprisingly we are expecting a shrinking of the Senate crossbench due to the half-Senate election and the concentration of low-polling Senate crossbenchers, but it is interesting to examine...
Big map of the day – swings by booth
For today's post I've put together a detailed map showing the two-candidate-preferred (2CP) vote in every booth across the country.
The map can be toggled between the swings and the total vote in each booth. Most booths are based on a Labor vs Coalition 2CP...
The state of play this morning
As my first post today I thought I would summarise the state of play in the House of Representatives.
As of last night I had called 141 seats as part of my analysis at the Guardian. This includes 72 Coalition seats and 63 Labor seats,...
Election day thread
Polls have just opened on the east coast in the 2019 Australian federal election. The handful of Australians who are yet to cast a pre-poll vote will be voting today in an election expected to be relatively close.
The latest polls have Labor in the...
Federal 2019 – the race in regional Victoria
In this post I'm looking at the 13 electorates that I have defined as "regional Victoria". This includes the major provincial cities of Geelong, Bendigo and Ballarat, as well as the seats of Casey and La Trobe on the eastern edge of Melbourne (which...
Federal 2019 – the race in northern NSW
For this post I'm focusing on those parts of New South Wales to the north of Sydney, including the Hunter region. There are five Labor seats and six National seats in this region.
I've identified four seats worth discussing, below the fold.
Firstly there is the...