Federal 2019 – Swan’s booths move to the centre
Once you notice the trend of Liberal areas (particularly those with higher education and income levels) swinging towards Labor while Labor areas swing to the Coalition, you start to see the trend all over the place.
One particularly good example is in the marginal Liberal...
The informal rate is rising, but more votes have been counted
After my post on Friday evening about turnout levels I've also done some further analysis into the rate of informal voting at the recent election.
While it is true that the informal rate has increased compared to the 2016 election, it is still lower than...
The turnout is pretty good actually
The Sydney Morning Herald published an article this afternoon claiming that the recent federal election had "one of the lowest voter turnouts" in the last century. Further down the authors claim that the turnout is "on track to be lower than the 2016 election", despite acknowledging...
Swings without Turnbull – cumulative swings since 2013
With all of the conversation about large swings in particular parts of the country at the recent election, a few people have been discussing how much this election's trends are simply a reaction to the 2016 election, with Malcolm Turnbull and Scott Morrison appealing...
The great divide in Macquarie and the big swing in Lindsay
I'm writing this post on Tuesday evening. Earlier today Labor MP Susan Templeman narrowly pulled ahead in the seat of Macquarie by just 27 votes. Who knows who will be leading when this post goes up on Thursday morning.
I've always found Macquarie to be...
Mallee moves apart
It looks like the Nationals have retained the seat of Mallee in north-western Victoria, but the race was remarkably wide open, with no candidate polling over 30% and six different candidates topping the poll in at least one booth.
Nationals candidate Anne Webster polled 28.7%,...
Mapping Warringah
The federal election generally went well for the government, but they suffered a big defeat in the northern Sydney seat of Warringah, where former prime minister Tony Abbott lost his seat after 25 years.
Abbott held his seat by an 11.6% margin against the Greens...
One Nation’s big vote in the Hunter
One of the big surprises in the recent federal election was the performance of One Nation in the NSW electorate of Hunter. This seat covers the more rural parts of the Hunter Valley, stretching from the western shore of Lake Macquarie up to Cessnock,...
Senate count update – one state left in play
The Senate count has been progressing for a week now and I thought it was about time to give an update (my previous post on the Senate is here). What is remarkable is how clear the count is. There appears to only be one...