The Tally Room

I've been focused recently on the longer historical trends which play out beyond the individual election cycle, or even beyond a single decade of political history. So much of electoral analysis is focused on the swings between one election and the next, and looking...

In yesterday's post I explained my dataset of election results from 2004-2019 adjusted for 2022 boundaries. In today's post I use that data to explore how seats have changed their political position relative to the rest of the country over this period. Every electorate has...

If you've been reading my federal election guide, you would have noticed a new feature: a chart showing the two-party-preferred vote in that seat over recent decades. It features a dotted green line, which is my estimate of how the modern 2022 electoral boundaries...

With the election campaign now underway, I've done another update of my candidate list, which I posted about in February. You can view the whole list here. This list now includes 878 House candidates, and I will be updating the seat guides with the updated...

Ben is joined by Glenn Kefford from Griffith University and Rob Manwaring from Flinders University to discuss the relationship between Labor and the Greens and how it may play out in this federal election. This podcast is supported by the Tally Room's supporters on Patreon....

Ben is joined by Peter Lewis from the Essential Poll to talk about the current state of polling in the lead up to the federal election, and to discuss the federal seat of Page. This podcast is supported by the Tally Room's supporters on Patreon....

It looks likely that the federal election will be called this coming weekend, for the 14th or 21st of May. With that, I've now unlocked my full federal election guide. It features profiles of all 151 House races and the eight Senate contests, including history,...

Papua New Guinea's parliament has recently passed the first successfully redistribution in the nation since 1977. The decision will see seven new seats created at the 2022 election, and a further six in 2027. While it does slightly reduce the overall amount of malapportionment,...

There's been a lot of discussion over the last few days about the Labor preselection for my local federal seat of Parramatta, where sitting Labor MP Julie Owens is retiring after 18 years. Parramatta is a very diverse electorate, which large numbers of voters...