Shaking out bias in the election night count

In Monday's blog post, I ran through the data on the rate at which election results come in on election night: the rate in each state, how timezones explain some of that variety, the national trend for the three kinds of votes counted on...

Podcast #73: The Australian Polling Council

We return again today to the polls, talking to two more pollsters from some of Australia's biggest political polls: Campbell White from YouGov/Newspoll and Mark Davis from Ipsos. We discuss the formation of the Australian Polling Council and what has changed since 2019. YouGov's...

The election night time curve

I think those of us who have followed a lot of Australian elections have some instinctive sense of how election night progresses - when we should expect results to come in, and how quickly they do so. But I thought I would dive into the...

Who wins the early vote?

As a final part in my series on trends in people voting early, today I'm analysing differences in how people vote, depending on whether they vote early or vote on election day, using the categories established in yesterday's post. Despite losing the last two elections,...

Getting the nominations balance right

There was a really interesting story in the Guardian yesterday from Michael McGowan and Joe Hinchliffe about a prospective One Nation candidate and his experiences in the nomination process. Rob Sinclair, who had previously been listed as an independent candidate in Parramatta, offered to run...

Which seats have the highest rates of early voting?

This is a follow-up to Monday's blog post, which explored the trends away from election day voting at the federal level, and how those trends have been accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic. For this blog post, I'm splitting up the 2019 vote between votes cast...

Podcast #72: Minor parties on the right

Ben is joined today by Ben Moffitt from the Australian Catholic University to talk about right-wing minor parties and their role in the federal election, and to profile the seat of Macquarie. This podcast is supported by the Tally Room’s supporters on Patreon. If you find...

The shift towards early voting

There has been a long term trend in Australian politics of voters shifting away from casting a ballot on election day, in favour of voting earlier in the campaign. This has usually taken place through two methods: an in-person pre-poll vote, or a postal...

Guide for next Saturday’s Tasmanian upper house elections

Tasmania's upper house holds elections every year in May, with two or three out of the 15 electorates up for election each year, over a six year cycle. Two seats were due to hold elections next Saturday, May 7, those being Elwick in the northern...

Will larger ballot papers drive up informal voting?

This election will see a record number of candidates on the ballot paper for the House of Representatives, with 1203 candidates running, up from the previous record of 1188 in 2013. In this post I'm analysing the relationship between the size of the ballot paper...