The Tally Room

Wow! Okay so where are we at on Sunday morning? With my work in the Guardian we have called 132 seats. There's a handful I haven't called (such as Parramatta and Werriwa) that can probably be called once the pre-poll vote comes in. Decided Leading Total Labor 70 9 79 Coalition 51 5 56 Crossbench 11 5 16 Total 132 19 151 When I went...

12:01 - Well it turns out the website couldn't handle the traffic tonight! Hopefully most of you found me at the Guardian. I'll be back in the morning with a lot of analysis. 7:57 - There's a lot going on, but some key points right...

I hadn't been planning to write a substantive blog post for election day - I usually just post an open thread for discussion during the day. But yesterday I had an idea for one more bit of analysis that seems relevant to consider before...

Today's blog post will be short. I'm creating this as an open thread to make your predictions about how the result will go. I'll be back with an open thread for election day tomorrow and there will be a liveblog on the night, although I...

I thought it was about time to do another update of the early voting statistics. As of the end of Wednesday, 3.87 million people had cast a pre-poll vote. This compares to 3.52 million as of the same point in 2019, and a cumulative total...

As is always the case, the election campaign has been very much focused on the House of Representatives. But there are some interesting potential outcomes in the Senate. In short, I think the Coalition is in danger of losing a senate seat in at least...

Ben is joined this week by Jill Sheppard and Peter Brent to discuss the state of the campaign, long term voting trends and the seat of Dickson in Queensland. This podcast is supported by the Tally Room’s supporters on Patreon. If you find this podcast worthwhile...

One of the big questions at this election is how the result will play out in each state. Labor has performed poorly in Queensland and Western Australia but is hoping to pick up ground there. For this post I wanted to examine the historic record...

Last month I posted an analysis looking at how much seats have moved in terms of their two-party-preferred rank, relative to every other seat in the country. Matt Cowgill on Twitter suggested I also look at the average size of swings in each seat...

Today is the fourth day of pre-poll voting, and it seemed like a good time to check in on how many people have voted so far. Postal vote applications continue to grow, and the total is currently 56% above the level at this time in...