The Tally Room

Today I'm announcing some work that was mostly finished at the end of last year but was put on hold until the new year, but is now finished. I have now added a number of new datasets to my data repository covering elections held in...

British polling company YouGov published their first MRP report for the 2025 election cycle, becoming the second company to publish an MRP during this election cycle. For this post I wanted to run a comparison of the two most recent MRPs from two different...

Nominations closed on Thursday for the WA state election. The nomination information was published late on Thursday and on Friday night I finished publishing final candidate lists on my election guide. The number of candidates for the lower house topped out at 398 candidates, an...

Ben was joined by Shaun Ratcliff from Accent Research to discuss the state of play as the federal election year kicks off. They discuss the state of polling, including the MRP polls conducted by Shaun in conjunction with Redbridge throughout 2024. This podcast is supported...

Elections are held for Tasmania's upper house every year, usually in May. I've now finished my guide to the three races to be contested this year. Read the guide here. Two to three seats are contested each year, with all 15 up for election over a...

8:00am - It appears that the final pre-poll figures for Werribee came in just after midnight, and the Labor lead increased slightly to 441 votes. This is definitely not enough to call the seat for Labor so we will need to watch as the...

We are now just over a month out from the Western Australian state election. The writs will be issued tomorrow, and nominations close next week. This seemed like the right time to unlock my state election guide for everyone to read. The guide has been...

A by-election is incoming for the NSW north coast state seat of Port Macquarie. This seat had previously been a safe Nationals seat, although it had fallen into independent hands in the 2000s. This changed in 2020, when sitting MP Leslie Williams quit the party...

The AEC published a fact sheet today with their estimates of margins for each electorate changed by the recently-completed federal redistributions. There are a few pretty big differences between their estimates and my own, and I wanted to explain what I think is going on....

A state by-election will need to be held in early 2025 for the western Melbourne seat of Werribee. This by-election was triggered by the retirement yesterday of Tim Pallas, a long-serving Labor minister who has served as Treasurer since 2014. Werribee lies on the western...