Booth map of the day: Gilmore
Gilmore is one of the two closest seats in terms of the final preference count, and is unique for being one of the few seats the Coalition had a feasible chance of gaining from Labor at the election.
Labor won Gilmore in 2019 for the...
Booth map of the day: Fowler
Today's map shows the two-candidate-preferred vote by booth in Fowler between newly elected independent Dai Le and her opponent, former Labor senator Kristina Keneally.
The map shows booths won by Keneally in red, and booths won by Le in purple.
There seem to be two different...
Booth map of the day: inner city Brisbane
For the rest of this week, each day I'll be featuring a booth map of a seat or a handful of neighbouring seats, starting today with the three seats won by the Greens in inner Brisbane: Brisbane, Griffith and Ryan.
The map shows that the...
Callide by-election guide posted
It's a close-run thing, but I've now published a guide to the Callide state by-election to be held this Saturday, 18 June, in Queensland. I won't be doing live results on Saturday night, but there has been a lively conversation on the Callide 2020...
Checking out variations between the House and the Senate
There's a lot to be learned about the trends in this election by looking at how the largest party groupings performed in the two Houses. While the major parties generally polled a lower vote in the Senate than in the House, that pattern varies...
Changing voting patterns slow down declaration of seats
Most people who read this website would have a reasonably good sense of the formal process of counting ballots: the counting of a primary vote, a two-candidate-preferred count, and the full distribution of preferences, where each candidate is excluded one-at-a-time until there are only...
Podcast #76: Federal election wrap-up
Ben is joined by William Bowe from the Poll Bludger to wrap up the 2022 federal election. We discuss the undecided Senate races, the close House races, and the paths to victory for the Coalition and chances for future hung parliaments.
This podcast is supported...
Is the Coalition one party, two parties or four parties?
There's been a lot of chatter online in the last few days challenging calculations about the low primary vote for the newly-elected Labor government, not by disputing that figure, but by arguing that it is higher than the vote for the Liberal Party. It's...
How might an election have played out under PR?
On Wednesday I published a blog post arguing that the House of Representatives electoral system needs to change to proportional representation, but I stayed away from any discussion of specific models. Since then, there's been a lot of discussion of various models, so I...