The Tally Room

Sunday morning final update - So I think we will still get some declaration votes but the scale of the votes is likely to be far too few to change the outcome. 35 formal declaration votes were counted in Fannie Bay in 2020, whereas...

A lot of analysis of the recent federal election used aggregate data and made assumptions about individual voting trends, but now we have some data that can actually answer these questions. Ben is joined in this episode by Shaun Ratcliff from YouGov to discuss...

The Victorian Electoral Commission has recently published a report laying out their estimates of the two-candidate-preferred margins in every electorate for the upcoming Victorian state election, after taking account of the redistribution. I've previously published my own estimates, but I'm planning to substitute the VEC's...

There will be a by-election later this month in the Northern Territory electorate of Fannie Bay, covering parts of the northern suburbs of Darwin. The seat was held by former chief minister Michael Gunner, who resigned last month after stepping down from the leadership...

We're about four months out from the Victorian state election, and I've just finished a quick update to my list of candidates for that election, as included in my election guide. The list now includes 139 candidates for the Legislative Assembly, which includes 68 incumbent...

As of yesterday, the results of the 2022 federal election have been finalised and move to the results archive. One of the last pieces of data to be compiled is a breakdown of two-party-preferred preference flows for each party. The two-party-preferred vote, by definition, splits...

While the federal election is now over, the two biggest state elections in Australia are just around the corner: Victoria in November, and New South Wales in March 2023. I released my Victorian election guide at the start of the year, but I have now...