The non-classic contests in Victoria

One way of looking at the Victorian election is to examine which seats ended up being 'non-classic' contests - seats where the two-candidate-preferred count didn't end up being a Labor vs Coalition count. This statistic peaked in 2018, and has gone slightly backwards in 2022,...

Podcast #85: Wrapping up Victoria 2022

For the final episode of 2022, Ben is joined by Narelle Miragliotta and Henry Schlechta to discuss the final results of the Victorian state election. This podcast is supported by the Tally Room’s supporters on Patreon. If you find this podcast worthwhile please consider giving your...

Who might have won under other Victorian upper house models?

Prior to the election, I published my own estimates of who would have likely won seats in the Victorian Legislative Council if group voting tickets were abolished and replaced by a system similar to those used for the Senate or for other upper houses...

Victorian lower house election the most disproportionate in 50 years

The Victorian lower house results showed a remarkable disconnect between voting trends and seat results. There was a clear swing against Labor - 5.8% on primary votes, and 2.4% on two-party-preferred votes - yet there was a gain of one seat for Labor. While Labor...

Victoria 2022 – Labor gains a seat as lower house results finalised

I've been absent for the last week while moving house, but I wanted to come back with a brief post since the Legislative Assembly results have now been finalised. Despite a significant swing against the government on a two-party-preferred and primary vote basis, the government...

Does incumbency help minor parties in the Victorian upper house?

When people defend group voting tickets, they often talk about the benefits of electing small parties and having a more diverse parliament. I have addressed this by arguing for an abolition of regions and thus making it easier for small parties to win without...

Why the vote shifted but the seat count didn’t

I bang on a lot about proportional representation on this website. Part of the argument for PR is about ensuring the representation of smaller parties and preventing the construction of false majorities, where a party that hasn't won a majority of the vote still...

Podcast #84: Victorian election results

Ben is joined by William Bowe from the Poll Bludger to discuss the results of the Victorian state election. This podcast is supported by the Tally Room’s supporters on Patreon. If you find this podcast worthwhile please consider giving your support. You can subscribe to this podcast...

Victoria 2022 – the state of play in the upper house

It's early days in counting for the Legislative Council, but there are already some trends emerging. The Druery alliance has been broken, with only a handful of aligned parties on track to win. Minor parties of the left are on track to win in almost...

Victoria 2022 – the next morning

Labor won a comfortable victory in yesterday's election, losing only a handful of seats against an opposition that performed poorly. By the latest count at the time of writing, Labor has won 49 seats and is ahead in another seven. The Coalition has won 24...