Personal votes and the effect of retirements in NSW
The recent NSW state election saw a high number of retirements in the lower house. The Coalition had more retirements than at any other election in the last thirty years.
Meanwhile the election produced inconsistent swings, with some seats producing large swings while neighbouring seats...
Aston by-election live
10:36 - I'm going to leave the live blog here.
This result tonight was truly remarkable. We all now know the history - governments simply do not win by-elections from oppositions, and it hasn't happened in over 100 years. A commenter pointed out that similar...
The blue wall blocking the Labor majority
Labor won a large two-party-preferred vote, yet looks set to fall short of a parliamentary majority. For most of modern Australian political history, a two-party-preferred vote of 53.6% (as the ABC currently projects) would comfortably win a majority.
For most of the post-war period, elections...
Podcast #90: Aston by-election preview
Ben is joined again by William Bowe from the Poll Bludger to discuss this weekend's federal by-election in the seat of Aston.
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NSW 2023 – the vanishing Labor majority
At the end of election night, Labor had definitively won 45 seats, but was expected to pick up enough extra seats to win a majority (requiring 47 seats). As of Sunday lunchtime they were leading in 49 seats. This had dropped to 47 when...
Podcast #89: NSW election results
Ben is joined by William Bowe from the Poll Bludger to discuss the results of the NSW state election.
Poll Bludger live results page
My thread looking at the history of embedding the NSW electoral system in the state constitution
This podcast is supported by the...
NSW 2023 – Legislative Council count progress
We are now starting to get a substantial sample of votes for the Legislative Council, and it's giving us some sense of who is likely to win. But the sample is far from complete, and the incompleteness of the sample could make a real...
NSW 2023 – next day review
There were a lot of parallels between the NSW result and last year's federal election result. On a Labor vs Coalition basis, the result was decisive (although NSW Labor won the 2PP by quite a bit more than federal Labor). But this translated into...
NSW 2023 – Election night
Polls have just closed in New South Wales.
I won't be running a liveblog tonight, but you can follow me by listening in to ABC Radio's coverage on local radio stations in New South Wales (including ABC Radio Sydney), ABC News Radio or online. I've...
NSW 2023 – early voting reaches new high
Polls have just opened for election day in New South Wales. I won't be regularly updating today but I wanted to give an update on the early voting stats. There'll be an open thread posted at 6pm, but tonight I will be analysing the...