The Indigenous vote in rural electorates
There has been some confusion and even some misleading analysis looking at how the Yes vote performed in seats with large Indigenous populations.
In particular, the focus has been on the seats of Lingiari, Leichhardt, Parkes, Kennedy and Durack, all of which voted No. The...
Podcast #106: Voice referendum wrap-up
Ben is joined by William Bowe from the Poll Bludger to recap the results of the Voice referendum.
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Voice results show similar geographic trends to 1999 and 2022
Well last night's referendum results turned out to be decisive. At the time of writing, No is sitting on 60.3% of the national vote, and has won all six states as well as the Northern Territory. The ACT voted Yes, and Yes is leading...
Voice referendum night
Polls have just closed in south-eastern Australia in the Voice referendum. Polls will close in 30 minutes in South Australia, in one hour in Queensland, an hour and a half in the Northern Territory, and three hours in Western Australia.
I'll be on ABC Radio...
Referendum day open thread
Polls have just opened in south-eastern Australia in the first federal constitutional referendum in a quarter-century on the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice to Parliament. Polls suggest the Voice is set to fall far short of success, but we'll see soon enough.
Voting has...
Which state will be the tipping point?
Australian constitutional referendums aren't fought at the seat level. They aren't really fought at the national level. It's actually a contest in six states.
A referendum requires a majority in four out of six states to pass. It's also necessary to achieve a national majority,...
Podcast #105: Voice referendum final week
Ben is joined today by Peter Brent to wrap up the referendum campaign. We discuss the state of the polls, the relative position of the states, whether the low Yes vote can really be blamed on the state of the campaign or by the...
What to watch on referendum night
When the results start flowing in on Saturday night, it will be our first experience of a federal referendum night in 24 years. For this post, I wanted to discuss some ideas of what to expect on the night, and how to assess the...
The 1999 example
The last constitutional referendums in this country were held in 1999, on adding a preamble to the constitution and changing Australia to be a republic. The latter referendum may have some insights about what we could expect on Saturday, so I thought I would...
Podcast #104: New Zealand election preview
Ben is joined by James Mulrennan from The Overhang. We preview next weekend's New Zealand national election, touching on the electoral system, the state of the parties and the polls, and the potential shape of the next government.
I have prepared an interactive map showing...