The Tally Room

In this post I'm going to run through each seat in depth, explaining who I think has won and which seats are in play. To summarise, at the moment I have 15 Liberals, 10 Labor, 5 Greens, 3 JLN and two independents in the lead. I...

There's still a bunch of votes to count, and preferences will need to be distributed before some seats are decided, but there's still a lot to say. There was a very clear shift away from Jeremy Rockliff's Liberal Party, who have suffered a swing of...

Polls have just closed for the Tasmanian state election. Polls will also close in the Dunstan state by-election in South Australia in half an hour. I won't be liveblogging here tonight because I'll be appearing on air on ABC Radio's election night broadcast. You can...

As has become a regular story, there was an uptick in voters choosing to vote using other methods than turning up at a regular polling place to vote at the last Tasmanian state election. Tasmania's voters have been less likely to switch away from election...

Analysing preference flows under a Hare-Clark system like that used in Tasmania is a lot more complex than a single-member electorate system. It isn't simply a matter of a series of candidates being knocked out until two remain - different parties benefit from preferences...

Ben is joined by Maggie Perry from 6 News Australia to discuss the results of council elections and by-elections in Queensland. We mostly focus on the Brisbane City Council results, and also touch on the results of the two state by-elections and other local...

For this post, I'm not going to dwell too much on individual races and where they are up to, but instead look at broader trends. I'll do another post today or tomorrow about the close races and what we're waiting to see. There were quite...

I'm going to wrap up shortly - it seems like the vote count has dried up. I'm sure we'll have more data tomorrow that can resolve more of the seats. At the moment it looks likely that the Greens will gain some wards, but whether...

Ben was joined by William Bowe from the Poll Bludger to discuss the Tasmanian state election. We run through the five state electorates one by one, and discuss what we'll be watching for on election night. This podcast is supported by the Tally Room’s supporters on...

In yesterday's post I explored some of the intra-party dynamics you get under Hare-Clark when multiple candidates from the same party are competing. In this post I wanted to map out the relative strength of different candidates from within a single party across an electorate. There's...